2020: worst year in tourism history with one billion fewer international arrivals
Global tourism recorded its worst year ever in 2020, with international arrivals down 74 per cent, according to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Destinations around the world received one billion fewer international arrivals in 2020 than the previous year, due to an unprecedented slump in demand and widespread travel restrictions. By comparison, the decline during the global economic crisis in 2009 was 4%.
According to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, the slump in international travel represents an estimated loss of US$ 1.3 trillion in export earnings, more than eleven times the losses recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. The crisis has put between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk, many of them in small and medium-sized enterprises.
Given the continuing evolution of the pandemic, many countries are now reintroducing tighter travel restrictions. Measures include mandatory testing, quarantines and, in some cases, complete border closures, all of which make it difficult to resume international travel. At the same time, it is to be hoped that the gradual arrival of the vaccines against IVID-19 will help restore consumer confidence, ease travel restrictions and slowly bring travel back to normal in the year ahead.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "Much has been done to make international travel safe, but we are aware that the crisis is far from over. Harmonisation, coordination and digitisation of travel-related measures to reduce the risk of spread of EVD-19, including testing, tracing and vaccination certificates, are an essential basis for promoting safe travel and preparing for tourism recovery as soon as conditions permit."
Recovery prospects remain cautious The latest survey among UNWTO's panel of experts shows mixed prospects for 2021. Almost half of the respondents (45%) foresee a better outlook in 2021 than in 2020, while 25% expect a similar performance and 30% foresee a worsening of performance in 2021.
The overall outlook for a rebound in 2021 seems to have worsened. Fifty percent of respondents do not believe that the upturn will occur until 2022, compared to 21% who expressed this view in October 2020. The other half of respondents still see a potential rebound in 2021, although expectations are lower than in the October 2020 survey (79% expected recovery in 2021). Whenever tourism activity resumes, the UNWTO panel foresees an increase in demand for nature and outdoor tourism activities, with a growing interest in domestic tourism and "slow travel" experiences.
In the longer term, the majority of experts do not foresee a return to pre-pandemic levels before 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents point to 2023, while 41% believe that 2019 levels will not be recovered until 2024 or even later. UNWTO's extended scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take two and a half to four years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels. All regions of the world are affected Asia and the Pacific (-84%) - the first region to be affected by the pandemic and one of those with the tightest travel restrictions - recorded the largest decline in arrivals in 2020 (300 million less).
The Middle East and Africa both recorded a 75% drop. Europe recorded a 70% drop in arrivals, despite a small and brief rebound in the summer of 2020. The region suffered the largest drop in absolute terms, with a decline of more than 500 million tourists in 2020. The Americas recorded a 69% drop in international arrivals, with slightly better results in the last quarter of the year. For a complete overview of the latest global, regional and sub-regional data, please consult the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker.