The arrival of Algerian gas in Spain plummets
Only 246.7 gigawatts/hour (Gw/h) passed through the Medgaz pipeline from Algeria to Spain on Sunday 8 May, compared with an average of almost 330 Gwh/day in the first week of April.
According to these data published daily by the National Gas Company (ENAGÁS), the balance of 3 May closed with the lowest gas bill so far this year, 233 GwH/day. A gas transit volume similar to that of 2021, when the Moroccan gas pipeline from Tarifa was also in operation, and which allowed a greater inflow in addition to the Almería pipeline.
The Algerian authorities have not commented on whether this drop in gas supply has to do with a political decision, or whether it is a change that corresponds to demand. However, data from previous years show that Spain had much higher imports than today.
The Algerian government led by Teboune has already threatened the Spanish government to reduce its gas exports or to renegotiate the price of transactions. This was a response to the new harmony in Spanish-Moroccan relations following Spain's support for Morocco's autonomy plan for the Sahara. Shortly afterwards, when the Spanish government informed Algeria that the Tarifa pipeline would be opened to bring gas to Morocco, Algeria again threatened to break its contract with Spain if Algerian gas were to be sold to Morocco.
The Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, was questioned many times by the national press about the Algerian threats. To these questions, Albares always responded in the same tone, assuring that Algeria is an indispensable strategic partner for Spain, which before this fall obtained 45 percent of its total gas from Algeria. According to calculations by the specialised daily Elconomista, this figure has now fallen to 22%.
Still according to Minister Albares, Algeria is characterised by the respect that Sonatrach, the Algerian national gas company, has for its supply contracts with EU countries. According to Albares, these would be sufficient guarantees not to fear a supply cut-off, or a blow on the back from Algiers that would lead to a renegotiation of the price of Algerian gas.
The scenario put forward by Albares coincides with that of the Arab media, such as Al-Arab, which believes that the termination of the Spanish-Algerian contract due to a political decision by the Tebboune government would cast a very bad shadow over Algeria's reputation in the eyes of the European Union. In addition to needing the income that Medgaz provides Algeria, in a context of economic crisis due to the war in Ukraine, Sonatrach should also prove itself solvent in the face of countries such as Italy, which have extended their gas purchase contracts in search of alternatives to Russian energy.
Meanwhile, Spain is studying how it can send gas to Morocco by reversing the flow of the Tarifa pipeline, without breaking the conditions imposed by Algeria. Spain is now becoming a gas hub for Europe, and its exports are growing. Through the Pyrenees pipelines connecting Spain with France, a regular amount of around 200 GWh/day has been shipped since April.
Gambling with gas can be very expensive for Algeria in the eyes of Europe, and it would be consistent for the country's political leaders to be aware of this. They do not have the same lobbying power as Russia, and it remains to be seen what cards Tebboune will play to destabilise the new phase of relations that has opened up between Spain and Morocco.