"China has overtaken the United States as Africa's largest trading partner"

GATE Center has published its "Gravity Center GATE Index Africa (GCG Index)", an indicator that constructs an Economic and Trade Centre of Gravity for Africa, and analyses its movements between 1960 and 2021. This is the fourth GCG Index published by the think tank GATE, after the global, Western European and Latin American GCG Indexes.  

The document highlights that despite being the world's second largest continent in terms of geographical area and home to 18% of the world's population (more than 1.3 billion people), Africa accounts for barely 3% of global GDP, i.e. its per capita income is one-sixth of the world average.  

In this respect, the GCG Index Africa emphasises the relative stagnation of the continent despite its status as an emerging region that "in theory should grow more than the world average. It should therefore also gain weight in global GDP, especially once it has thrown off the yoke of the respective metropolises, on which it was dependent during the period of European colonialism".  

This paradox is explained by what Miguel Sebastián, academic coordinator of the GATE Center, defined as "the curse of raw materials" during the presentation of the "GCG Index Africa" in a webinar in which José Segura, director of Casa África, and Rafael Galán del Río "Perpe", director of the Economic Area of the GATE Center, also participated. "African countries have become comfortable with the returns from oil and precious minerals (platinum, coltan) and have not done their homework on diversification and investment in other value-added sectors". This circumstance is compounded by the "institutional tensions" and armed conflicts that are occurring in the different countries that make up the continent.  

Segura, for his part, stressed that another factor that has been a determining factor in this situation of stagnation is that "Africa lacks a network of internal infrastructures. As long as there is no intra-continental land communication system, there will be no powerful trade network".

Until now, most of the investments in Africa by the country presided over by Xi Jinping have been in the mining sector, and China is also the continent's largest importer of oil. However, for some years now, China has also been taking advantage of the opportunities offered by the development of infrastructures. This was made clear by Casa África's director during the webinar, who stated that the policy of "intelligent colonialism" that the Asian giant is applying on the African continent "has ousted the former colonial powers and the United States. China's commitment to infrastructure development has made it the main lender and creditor in the region, and has also won over governmental will. China is now Africa's main trading partner".  

In this respect, Segura remarked that it is the Asian giant's companies that are monopolising most of the port developments in West Africa and consolidating their position as "super-operators", which will allow them to exercise almost absolute control of, among others, the commercial traffic of the New Silk Road. "China's long-term vision in Africa is to promote the region's growth".  

On the other hand, it is worth recalling the possibilities that the African continent represents for the energy sector, especially in the field of photovoltaics. "Morocco will be Europe's energy granary," said the director of Casa África. 

That said, where does that leave Europe? In the words of Miguel Sebastián, "the Africa-Europe Partnership, with Horizon 2030, seems more like a declaration of intentions", with projects such as the Mediterranean Solar Plan or the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, which would represent a great opportunity for Spain - which has more than 1,500 companies operating on the continent and exports more than to other regions, including Latin America - are currently at a standstill.  

In this sense, "Europe cannot afford to be a secondary actor on this continent. Let alone be a guest on the sidelines. Therefore, once the conflict in Ukraine, which absorbs a large part of the European agenda, is over, it must urgently resume its strategy to become the priority partner of the African continent", said the academic coordinator of the GATE Center. 

This was corroborated by the director of Casa África, who insisted on the idea that Europe must "inexorably cooperate, co-help and make it possible for African countries to grow per se. It is not only about exporting, but also about installing and developing industries".

With regard to the movement of the centre of economic gravity, the report highlights how in 1960 - when the indicator began - it was located well to the south of the continent, in the Republic of Congo. Over the years, it shifted northwards and westwards, partly because of the reduced weight of South Africa, but above all because of the pull of the Mediterranean countries, to move to Ethiopia and Kenya in recent years.  

Looking ahead to the next five years, the GATE Center's analysis shows that there will be a shift towards the north-eastern countries. According to IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasts, Ethiopia, Ghana, Sudan and Egypt will lead Africa's economic growth in terms of GDP in 2027.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.