China promotes an Asian economic partnership that will change the global landscape

Fifteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region will sign a major trade agreement promoted by China during an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) virtual summit that began this Thursday.

Once signed, the pact, called the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (CERP), will become the most important trade agreement in the world in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The origin of these negotiations dates back to 2012 and is considered the Chinese response to an American initiative that has now been abandoned. It will be signed by ten ASEAN economies together with China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia. Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc also confirmed at the last minute that the pact would be signed this week.

The surprise about the RCEP has come when India has decided to stay out. India was originally supposed to be a signatory, but last year decided to withdraw for fear that cheap Chinese products would flood its market. Even so, New Delhi can join the pact, if it so wishes, at a later date.

The RCEP, whose members account for 30 percent of world GDP, will be "an important step in the liberalisation of trade and investment" in the region, said Rajiv Biswas, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at IHS Markit.
Many have seen this pact as a tool for China to extend its influence in the region and determine the rules, after years of inaction by the United States during the presidency of Donald Trump.

However, US president-elect Joe Biden could adopt a more committed attitude in the region, as former president Barack Obama did, estimated Alexander Capri, a trade relations expert at the National University of Singapore.

At the opening ceremony, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc stressed that three quarters of a century after the end of the Second World War, peace and security "are under greater threat from the unpredictable behaviour of states, rivalry between the great powers and the questioning of multilateral systems", Phuc added.

The United States, which is also participating in this summit, has in recent months condemned Beijing's actions in the South China Sea, where fishing vessels from Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have denounced the harassment of Chinese ships.

However, at this ASEAN summit, which ends on Sunday, neither China nor the United States will have to sit close by, as the meetings will be held by teleconference due to the pandemic.
Washington is perceived as a counterweight to Beijing's actions, especially after the recent trip of the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to Indonesia, when he stressed that "law-abiding nations reject the illegal claims of the Chinese Communist Party in the South China Sea".
 

China claims for itself 80 percent of this sea, including the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos, in dispute with Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines, as well as special economic zones claimed by these countries in Indonesia.

Following the signing of the RCEP agreement this Sunday, the pact will become a powerful treaty that will bring together a third of the world economy including Australia, South Korea, Japan, India, New Zealand and the ten members of ASEAN, formed by Burma, Brunei, Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

In addition to this agreement, which could strengthen China's economic influence in the region, Phuc stressed that a comprehensive economic recovery plan will be adopted at this summit to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, with the emphasis on stabilising supply chains, recovering trade and the possible implementation of an air corridor between the ASEAN countries.