The coming shortage of strategic materials
Some types of plastic, basic cardboard for logistics, diesel, microchips, the copper essential for electrification and the magnesium needed in aluminium alloys are currently in short supply. The pandemic-related problems of price, logistics and supply mask a possible structural change: the sheer condition of finite resources, where the supply of counted tonnes of some raw materials will be overwhelmed by growing demand. Various studies already point to such a scenario by crossing three variables: first, the thirst for materials due to mass digitisation, energy transition and economic and population growth; second, the reserves currently available; and third, the time needed to react.
The IMF forecasts that the market for strategic minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt will increase fourfold between 2021 and 2040. For the EU, demand for some rare earths could increase tenfold by mid-century, and the World Bank suggests that lithium, graphite and cobalt production should be 450% higher than in 2018. Europe is backtracking and starting to talk about third-generation nuclear to guarantee electricity supply in a mix dominated by intermittent renewables, but the World Nuclear Association predicts that by 2040 uranium production will be a quarter of what it is today.
The International Energy Agency points to the B-side of electrification that is not often mentioned in sustainable discourses: an electric car needs up to six times more copper, lithium, nickel, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, zinc and rare earths than a conventional car. And a wind power plant needs up to nine times more copper and zinc than a natural gas one.
Experts such as Alicia Valero, from the University of Zaragoza, or Antonio Turiel, a reference at the CSIC, add to the list silver integrated in batteries and photovoltaic connectors, platinum and its hundred uses from hard disks and fibre optics to medical implants or explosives, the gallium in LEDs, as well as neomidium, cadmium or lead and fossil fuels such as natural gas. Another Spanish researcher, Aurora Torres, is the author of a study published in Science on the lack of sand in some countries in the midst of construction fever. This material, theoretically abundant, is also basic to produce everything from toothpaste and cosmetics to computers and mobile phones.
The projection of this scenario seems obvious: the threat of a major structural bottleneck that would cause negative effects such as price rises, shortages, hoarding and the dry brake on developments that today are taken for granted, such as the large-scale production of objects connected to the Internet of Things, new waves of consumer electronics, the replacement of means of transport or the construction of infrastructures for a world that is increasingly populated and in need of inputs.
Solutions? The more optimistic view trusts in technological evolution on multiple fronts such as the maturation of hydrogen, R&D of new materials, energy efficiency systems or those disruptive inventions that facilitate leaps forward. They are also pinning their hopes on changes in consumer habits, such as the return of repairs and the room for improvement in the circular industry, such as the eco-design of mobile phones to facilitate the recovery of metals (today extremely difficult due to miniaturisation) or chemical recycling that avoids the progressive degradation of the base material, as is still the case with plastic or paper. They are also counting on discovering new mineral deposits and perfecting extraction techniques (Europe is researching how to harvest metals and rare earths from inactive volcanoes).
Experts like Turiel believe that the future will require a major paradigm shift. Assuming that technology has limits and that it will be necessary to replace the linear growth economy, which has only been possible in successive industrial revolutions thanks to abundant raw materials and cheap energy.