The coronavirus will claim between 5.3 and 24.7 million jobs

An initial assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the global workplace indicates that the effects will be far-reaching. In terms of earnings, worker losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic will range from $860,000 to $3.4 trillion, driving many people into poverty. An appropriate policy response can mitigate the effects. The International Labour Organization has made a number of recommendations to this effect.

The crisis created by the coronavirus COVID-19 will have far-reaching effects on the labour market, according to an initial assessment by the International Labour Organization: an estimated 5.3 to 24.7 million people will lose their jobs. Compared to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, global unemployment increased by 22 million.

Falling employment also leads to large income losses for workers. The study estimates that these will be between $860 billion and $3.4 trillion by the end of 2020. This will translate into falls in consumption of goods and services, which in turn will affect the prospects of businesses and economies.

This will lead to a significant increase in working poverty, as "income pressures resulting from the decline in economic activity will have a devastating effect on workers near or below the poverty line".

The International Labour Organization estimates that between 8.8 and 35 million more people will be in working poverty worldwide, compared to the original estimate for 2020 (which predicted a decline of 14 million globally). Underemployment is also expected to increase exponentially, as the economic consequences of the virus outbreak will result in reductions in working hours and wages.

The employment crisis will affect certain groups disproportionately and exacerbate inequality. Among the most vulnerable are those:

People with underlying health conditions and older people who are most at risk of developing serious health problems

Young people, who already face higher rates of unemployment and underemployment, are more vulnerable to falling labour demand, as observed during the global financial crisis

Older workers can also suffer an economic impact. After the MERS outbreak, it was found that they were more likely to experience higher rates of unemployment and underemployment, as well as reduced working hours
Women who are over-represented in the most affected sectors (such as services) or in occupations that are on the front line of the fight against the pandemic. ILO estimates that 58.6 per cent of employed women work in the service sector worldwide, compared to 45.4 per cent of men. Women also have less access to social protection and will bear a disproportionate burden of the so-called care economy in the event of the closure of schools or care systems.

Unprotected workers, including the self-employed, casual and contract workers, are likely to be disproportionately affected by the virus, as they do not have access to paid or sick leave mechanisms, and are less protected by conventional social protection mechanisms and other forms of income relief.

Migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, which will limit their ability to access their workplaces in destination countries and return to their families.

"This is not only a global health crisis, but also a major economic and labour market crisis that is having a huge impact on people," explains ILO Director-General Guy Ryder. "In 2008, thanks to the world's united front in the face of the consequences of the global financial crisis, the worst was averted. The current juncture requires that kind of leadership and determination," he added.

"In times of crisis like this, we have two key tools that can help mitigate the damage and restore public confidence. First, active social dialogue between workers, employers and their representatives is vital to build public confidence and support for the measures needed to overcome this crisis. Second, international labour standards provide a proven basis for policy responses that focus on sustainable and equitable recovery. Everything possible needs to be done to minimize harm to people at this difficult time," said Ryder.

Among the ILO recommendations to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the labor market that should have an immediate impact are

• Policy responses focused on two immediate objectives: health protection measures and economic support.
• Protect workers and employers and their families from the health risks of COVID-19

Introduce and strengthen protective measures in the workplace and in all communities, which require large-scale public support and investment, make timely, large-scale and coordinated policy efforts to provide employment and income and stimulate the economy and labour demand. These measures not only cushion enterprises and workers against immediate employment and income losses, but also help prevent a supply chain disruption (e.g., losses in workers' productivity capacity) and demand disruption (e.g., suppression of consumption among workers and their families) that could lead to a prolonged economic downturn proactive, large-scale and integrated measures in all policy areas to achieve strong and sustained impacts. As the crisis is rapidly evolving, careful monitoring of the direct and indirect effects of all interventions is crucial to ensure that policy responses are and remain relevant.

Building trust through dialogue for effective policy action. Especially in times of increased social tension and lack of trust in institutions, strengthened respect for and reliance on social dialogue mechanisms creates a solid basis for building the commitment of employers and workers to joint action with governments. Social dialogue at the enterprise level is also crucial.

• Protect the employment and income of companies and workers adversely affected by indirect effects (factory closures, disruption of supply chains, travel bans, cancellation of public events, etc.)
• Ensure social protection through existing schemes and/or ad-hoc payments for workers, including informal, casual, seasonal and migrant workers, and the self-employed (e.g. through access to unemployment benefits, social assistance and public employment programs).
• Create job retention programs, including short-term work arrangements and other temporary business support, such as wage subsidies.
• Granting of paid leave and extension of existing rights to workers and training leave, grants and related schemes.
• Fixed-term financial and tax relief and income equalization measures to support business continuity, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises and the self-employed, for example through subsidies or credit refinancing to overcome liquidity constraints.