The IMF warns that the coronavirus poses a major threat to the economies of the Middle East and North Africa

Although all nations of the world are being hit by the health and economic crisis caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, not all are facing this complex situation with the same resources. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) warns that countries in the Middle East and North Africa, with fragile state structures and ongoing armed conflicts, are in a very difficult situation to deal with the coronavirus. In places such as Afghanistan, Djibouti, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan and Somalia, the IMF says family incomes have fallen sharply as a result of social dislocation and quarantines, according to a report released this week.

The most vulnerable people are those working in the informal sectors or low-skilled workers, including refugees. Remittances sent by immigrants to their families in this region, which represent about 14% of the GDP of this area and allow many households to survive, are expected to collapse by 20%. The real GDP of the countries in the area is expected to fall by 7% overall. The GDP per capita will fall to $2,100 in 2020, when it was $2,900 in 2019.

This loss of income will aggravate existing economic and human problems, according to the IMF's analysis. Countries with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Africa (MENA) region have previously faced problems of poverty, political instability, weak states and poor infrastructure. The agency warns that the problems could be exacerbated by social and political instability. The worsening economy adds to the humanitarian crisis already being experienced by some countries with ongoing conflicts, such as Libya, Syria and Yemen.

A widespread outbreak of COVID-19 may exceed the health capacity of the region. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are suffering from a shortage of doctors, with only eight per 10,000 people. They also face a lack of hospital beds and limited access to hand washing facilities. Individual protection against the virus will be more difficult than elsewhere. The shortage, due to reduced imports and international competition for medical equipment, makes the region even more vulnerable.

Containing the virus is very difficult for the 17.2 million internally displaced persons or 2.7 million refugees. Many of these populations live in precarious conditions in camps, where overcrowding and lack of sanitation and water are common. Only 10 to 20 per cent of refugees from Djibouti and Sudan are guaranteed access to these basic services, according to the IMF. Two people have already tested positive for coronavirus in the world's largest refugee camp, the Cox's Bazaar in Bangladesh, the digital version of the newspaper El Mundo reported on Friday.

The region was already experiencing problems of food insecurity before the pandemic spread. Food supply has been affected by transport restrictions. This has been compounded by drought, floods and a locust infestation, which have affected production and prices in some countries. International support will be critical for these nations to increase spending on health, provide some social protection, and support families financially, the IMF said in the analysis. 

Together with other international financial institutions, the IMF is providing policy advice and support to help address the economic challenges, and Afghanistan, Djibouti and Yemen are already benefiting from emergency financing and debt relief. The United Nations has begun to mobilize resources for a $2 billion response plan and has called for a global ceasefire, which is essential to enable an adequate medical response. 

"Strong action now will protect hard-won progress on reforms in some countries and avert a new humanitarian crisis, reducing the double jeopardy of future demands for international assistance and increased refugee flows," said Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, in statements included in the IMF document.   

The IMF says that with the right support, countries can turn this crisis into an opportunity. As a second wave of the COVID-19 is likely to occur, the IMF encourages the strengthening of health and social projection capacities as a way to reinforce political and social progress. The crisis could also accelerate digitization and help increase transparency in government, which can lead to a reduction in the informality of the economy and improved access to basic banking products for the population.