Israel and the Emirates turn to business, but move cautiously on politics
Focused on expanding their economic ties, Israel and the United Arab Emirates mark one year since they established diplomatic relations, the cornerstone of the Abraham Accords, which are set to reshape the dynamics of the Middle East with political implications yet to be explored.
"Enthusiasm" is the word used by several people consulted by Efe news agency in both countries to assess the first year of relations, in which business has been generated to the value of 570 million dollars and is expected to reach 1 billion dollars by the end of the year, "despite the border closures and restrictions due to the pandemic", indicated the Israeli Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, founder of the UAE-Israel Business Council.
"This year has changed the region, we are developing a new model for peace in the Middle East, a warm peace, not the cold peace of the past," said Hassan-Nahoum, also Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem, who sees "great opportunities" in political ties, although she admits that such dialogue is "moving more cautiously".
Sponsored by former US president Donald Trump and signed by the previous Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Abraham Accords - later joined by Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco - imposed a new paradigm by breaking with one of the maxims of the conflict: the non-relationship of Arab countries with Israel until the Palestinian question is resolved.
Precisely in this first year of relations - which culminated in the mutual opening of embassies in June in Abu Dhabi and in July in Tel Aviv - the main source of tension was the escalation of war in May in Gaza, acknowledges the Deputy Mayor, "but we managed to overcome it because to have a healthy relationship we have to talk openly about everything, including the Palestinian question".
"We have a lot of future ahead of us," says Hassan-Nahoum, who is convinced that more Arab countries will soon join the Abraham Accords, with moves "under the radar" - as was the case years ago with the Emirates - with Saudi Arabia, Oman and even Indonesia, where "progress is simmering".
For former Israeli diplomat Nadav Tamir, it is a "mistake" to base the Israel-UAE relationship exclusively on economic issues, as he considers it important to "involve the Emirati government in sensitive political issues related to the Palestinian territories", such as East Jerusalem, settlements in the occupied West Bank or the reconstruction of Gaza.
"The UAE has the most pro-Western vision of peace and stability in the Middle East among Arab countries, so it is a great political ally in the region for Israel," he explained.
This view is shared by Micky Rozin-Aharonson, a diplomacy expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), who believes that the UAE can serve as a "moderating and stabilising factor" in the region, not only with the Palestinians, but also with regard to the threat from Iran, which Israel and the UAE share with other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia.
"The agreement has been pragmatic, very realistic, based on the national interest of both the UAE and Israel. So it is here to stay," Emirates University professor Abdulkhaleq Abdullah told Efe news agency. "It is getting stronger and stronger. It is irreversible," he added.
However, Abdullah believes that the Abraham Accords have failed to deliver on the promise of "peace and stability" in the region and have not brought progress on the Palestinian issue. "At the moment we don't have a peace partner in Israel, the mood there is right-wing and stubborn," he said.
On the economic front, relations "will not go backwards, although they are fraught with "challenges", said Abdullah Baqer, the Dubai-based chairman of the UAE-Israel Business Council, which has more than 5,000 Emirati and Israeli members.
The main challenge, according to Baqer, is that the "rapid growth" in economic ties "becomes sustainable, is maintained and the right opportunities are found", with the logistics, medical and agricultural sectors benefiting most in the UAE from the agreement, while in Israel it is high-tech and innovation companies that have attracted the most interest.
The oil sector will also get a boost after Israeli pipeline company EAPC signed a deal to transport crude oil from the UAE to Europe via a line connecting the Red Sea city of Eilat and the Mediterranean port of Ahskelon, both in Israel, although the project has been delayed by environmental concerns.
"Israeli-Emirati relations are multifaceted. Economic ties are important and trade and investment are growing all the time," researcher Albadr Alshateri told Efe, adding that it is "much more than just a commercial relationship".
Like Israeli analysts, he highlights the implications of the agreement for the "geopolitical dynamics" of the region, where not only the Emirates, but also Saudi Arabia, see Israel as an ally for a common front against Turkey and Iran, enemies of some of the Gulf Arab countries.