Morocco forecasts economic growth of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026
Morocco continues to record strong economic data and is continuing to consolidate its economic and industrial fabric thanks to the state planning implemented in recent years under the reign of Mohammed VI.
As part of the North African country's boom, the High Commission for Planning in Morocco has presented positive growth forecasts for the first quarter of 2026.
Morocco expects national economic growth of 4.2% in the first quarter of this year.
Growth forecasts for the first quarter of 2026
The High Commission for Planning states that this slight acceleration would be driven mainly by agricultural and tertiary activities, whose contribution to overall economic growth is estimated at +2.9 percentage points.
The High Commission for Planning also notes that the Moroccan national economy should evolve in early 2026 in an environment marked by a combination of external and structural shocks.
Year-on-year estimate and economic indicators report
Morocco's national economic growth is expected to reach 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026 in year-on-year terms, compared to 4% in the previous quarter, according to forecasts by the High Commission for Planning.
This slight acceleration would be driven mainly by agricultural and tertiary activities, whose contribution to overall economic growth is estimated at +2.9 percentage points, according to the High Commission for Planning in an economic outlook report detailing the situation of key economic indicators observed in the third quarter of 2025 and estimated for the fourth quarter of 2025, and describes the forecasts for the first quarter of 2026.
Sectors and external pressures on the economy
Construction and manufacturing
The construction sector is expected to continue growing at a rate of 3.4%, following the slowdown observed at the end of 2025, which was attributed to temporary disruptions caused by adverse weather conditions in December.
In contrast, the manufacturing industry, which is more exposed to fluctuations in external demand, is expected to record moderate growth (+3.1%), reflecting persistent pressures on export markets.
The High Commission for Planning estimates that the national economy should evolve in early 2026 in an environment characterised by a combination of external and structural shocks. On the one hand, the continued moderation of European demand, exacerbated by increased US tariffs and intensified Chinese competition, would continue to weigh on national exports.