El PIB de Marruecos podría crecer un 3,3% en 2023, según informe del Banco Africano de Desarrollo

The new report entitled "North African Economic Outlook 2022", issued by the African Development Bank (AfDB), reflects Morocco's efforts to put the effects of the pandemic behind it in the shortest possible time. The agricultural sector and exports appear to be two of the most important pillars of the Moroccan economy, while the tourism sector is still struggling. The latter has not yet recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels, although it is showing good signs of growth, increasing by 34% compared to 2020.
 
Last year, due to the rebound effect after the 6.3% drop in GDP in 2020, the Moroccan economy closed the year with a real GDP increase of 7.2%. Much of this recovery was due to a rebound in virtually non-existent tourism in the year of the pandemic and a recovery in investment, one of the sectors on which Rabat is focusing much of its efforts for the near future. "Investments have largely contributed to growth in Morocco (5.5%) after a significant drop in 2020," the AfDB report notes.

As for inflation, the report shows that already in 2021, this index showed signs of the exponential rise that has been experienced this 2022. Last year, inflation was twice as high as in 2020 - 1.2% compared to 0.6% - and this has been further exacerbated this year. This factor is coupled with the significant rise in Morocco's debt. Between 2015 and 2021, the Alawi kingdom's debt has grown from 63.7% to 76.3% of GDP. However, "according to an IMF estimate of February 2022, the debt is sustainable, but is more sensitive to a significant fall in real GDP growth in the medium term", so these data, without being alarming, show one of the debts of the Moroccan economy.

The reality of the kingdom's economy is still very positive in view of the initiatives that are being put in place. In fact, 2021 closed with a positive symptom of this, such as the reduction of almost one point in the unemployment rate. This movement, according to the AfDB, is largely due to Morocco's new development model, which places human capital at the centre. The report itself also puts the spotlight on the Kingdom's intention to establish universal social security by 2025.
 
Morocco's new GDP growth projection is down somewhat from the last ADB report, largely due to the severe drought that has hit the country. However, swift action by the Alawi government has meant that the effects are much less than might have been expected. Thus, GDP growth for 2023 is forecast at 3.3%, only six tenths of a percentage point lower compared to previous forecasts, leaving a good impression on the performance of Morocco's economy, considering the difficult context it has had to face throughout this year.