Mubawab detalla las claves de la evolución del mercado inmobiliario en Marruecos
Mubawab is a leading real estate site in Morocco that offers the most reliable listings when it comes to buying or selling real estate. They are present in much of the Arab world such as Tunisia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Mubawab was launched in July 2010, with the aim of providing a modern and practical real estate advertising website for the Arab community. The idea for the site came in response to the question of how the property buying/selling experience could be made easier for the Arab community.
Following the launch of the Rental Tensiometer (MRT), a tool that tracks the dynamics of the long-term rental market, the Moroccan company reported that, in the third quarter of 2022 of the Moroccan market, the average price per square metre of flats is 10,300 dirhams (DH). Also according to the MRT, an empty flat rents, on average, at 7,250 DH per month, a furnished flat rents, on average, at 8,500 DH per month and there is a quarterly and annual increase of, respectively, 2.8% and 2.2%, marking a certain stability quarter to quarter and year to year. If we talk about villas, prices and trends are totally different. In Morocco, an empty villa rents, on average, at 22,200 DH per month and there is an increase of 9 and 10% respectively, and a furnished villa rents, on average, at 23,400 dirhams per month which represents an increase of 6 % compared to the previous quarter.
Overall, prices recorded a slight increase in the third quarter of 2022. The supply of new and old homes fell by -2.3%. Demand, on the other hand, is in good health and recorded an increase of 4.7%. The real estate asset price index (IPAI) showed a 0.4% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2022, according to Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) and the National Agency for Land Conservation Cadastre and Mapping (ANCFCC), while the number of transactions fell by 22.5%. To better understand these data, we need to know what the indicators are based on.
A labour market, tourism, the density of administrative services are all economic agents and, ultimately, households in need of housing. So, if real estate prices are rising in these cities, it is because they (still) currently benefit from a relatively stable demand for housing needs, despite the economic and social difficulties that Moroccan households may experience, even in these cities. The supply/demand ratio continues, again this quarter, to be positive in all major cities in the Moroccan Kingdom. This ratio represents the potential for growth in each area.
The economic crisis resulting from the COVID crisis and then the global inflationary crisis since early 2022 that followed have greatly reduced the purchasing power of Moroccans. This means that the shortage of so-called middle-class housing available on the national property market as a whole, and the absence of a new horizon for social housing in 250,000 DH, make the real estate sector an area in need of new products, capable of stimulating demand and meeting new needs, but often expressed over time.
The COVID hiatus has created new economic conditions. New foreclosure opportunities, but also bankruptcy and business creation movements, when it is not the extension or transfer of activities that animated the commercial real estate market. This increase in the price of the old is mainly driven by the increase in prices of villas by 8% quarter-on-quarter. Prices of old flats, which represent a significant percentage of Mubawab's total inventory, also follow the same trend and there is a 2% increase. On a year-on-year basis, the overall price of the old market has depreciated by -2% with an increase of 1% for flats and a fall of -10% for villas.
After the fall in prices observed in Q2 2022, Q3 witnessed stability in overall new home prices. Prices of flats and villas have risen by 1 and 3% respectively. The third quarter of 2022 closes with a rise in the Mubawab Price Index (MPI) recording a 3.6% increase in value compared to August 2022. We are currently at the same price level as in March 2022 and December 2021. Casablanca, Marrakech, Dar Bouazza and Agadir are the cities with the most stable flat prices, registering minimal price variations of between -2 and +2%. In villas, the cities of Rabat, Agadir and Casablanca show some stability in prices for this third quarter, with variations of between +/- 4%.
Kevin Gormand, CEO and co-founder of the Mubawab Group, says: "In addition to the evolution of prices in the cities and the analysis of the dynamics of the digital real estate market, supply and demand are also interesting indicators that we observe to enrich our analysis. Thus, it seems that, since the increase in supply in 2Q-2022, the trend reverses in 3Q-2022 with a fall of 4.7%. This third quarter, the growth potential is still there, i.e. the ratio between demand and supply is advantageous for new growth opportunities. For example, in the city of Marrakech, demand is almost 3.8 times higher than supply".
Prices in the cities of Agadir and Marrakech are expected to fall by 9.18% and 0.52% respectively in December 2022. On the contrary, prices in Casablanca will rise by 2.61% in December 2022. Finally, prices in Rabat will register a variation of -1.5% over the same period. However, these results may be fluctuating and may not follow the indicated trend given the instability of the market and the current context.
The support for the sector from the royalty and the government is plausible since officially in Morocco on 11 June 2019, the launch of the market of the Collective Real Estate Investment Plans (OPCI). The OPCI is a regulated investment vehicle whose main objective is the acquisition or construction of buildings exclusively for the purpose of leasing them. This investment vehicle allows investors of all types (individuals, legal entities, qualified investors, etc.) to access the real estate market by acquiring units or shares of an OPCI that directly or indirectly owns real estate assets.
According to statistics from the Moroccan Capital Market Authority (AMMC), 43 funds were approved at the end of September, including 22 in 2022, for a net assets of 43 billion dirhams, measures that augur growth and stability for the market in the first quarter of 2023.