Pakistan's economic autumn in the doldrums

Pakistan is experiencing a turbulent autumn marked by natural disasters and an adverse reaction from public opinion towards its leaders, who are incapable of solving the serious economic problems the country is going through. 

The floods that have hit the country come at a time when Pakistan's economy is in an absolutely precarious situation, with inflation of over 20% and the depreciation of its local currency, the rupee. 

In this context, according to analysts, Pakistan is likely to raise its poverty rate by between 2.5 and 4 percentage points, according to a World Bank report published in October. In other words, nearly 20 per cent of its 220 million people are already below the poverty line.

Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan's Minister of Planning, who is in charge of flood reconstruction and rehabilitation, told the country's National Assembly this week that Pakistan plans to host an international donor conference once the assessment of the estimated damage has been completed. In this context, both France and the UN have offered to hold a donors' conference to generate funds for Pakistan, which is among the most climate-vulnerable nations. 

However, Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Centre, said Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators will make it challenging for the government to raise additional funds.
 
Indeed, the country's inability to generate funds could lead Pakistan to turn to China, a rival of the United States. Pakistan's foreign debt exceeds 130 billion dollars, or 132.869 billion euros, of which some 30.662 billion euros are owed to China, which has also invested heavily in Pakistan as part of its "Belt and Road" initiative.

Adding to this problem is the public's disagreement with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), which in a unanimous decision has found Imran Khan, the country's former Prime Minister, guilty of "corrupt practices" and disqualified him from being a member of Parliament. Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has been calling on its supporters to take to the streets since Friday. 

According to Al Jazeera, "the case against Khan was filed in August by a member of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), alleging that the former Prime Minister and his wife, Bushra Bibi, had bought gifts from foreign dignitaries - up to 58 boxes - from the state gift depot and then sold them in the market at discounted prices, however, he did not disclose the assets in the statements submitted to the commission.

Khan, who was removed from office through a parliamentary no-confidence motion, has accused his boss, Sikandar Sultan Raja, of being biased against him and his party. Following the dismissal of his government, Khan has held rallies across the country, calling for early elections and currying favour with the people.

As analyst Hasnaat Malik tells Al Jazeera, "the ECP in the verdict has sent the case to a trial court. However, if Khan is found guilty of corrupt practices in the court, he could be imprisoned for up to three years". This would mean that Pakistan could face a potentially problematic social landscape, with the intensity of the riots that are already taking place across the country expected to rise.