Risk of total blackout increases in Lebanon

The crisis in Lebanon is approaching a critical point, if it has not already reached it. Energy reserves are running low and the state-owned energy company (EDL) is warning that the country is increasingly likely to suffer a total blackout. They are even considering the option of being affected by this power grid failure at the end of September. The social and economic crisis is not making a situation that is currently hanging by a thread any easier.

For the past two years or so, Lebanon has been hit hard by several crises that have brought the country to one of the most dramatic situations in its modern history. With the vast majority of the population living on power from private generators, the EDL has stated in an official communiqué that it has "exhausted all possible options". Only a few production clusters will be able to receive power supplies based on available reserves, which are now one step away from running out.

In fact, some of them, such as the Jiyyé thermal power plant, "are totally exhausted", according to the company itself, located to the south of Beirut. To this must be added the two mobile power plants owned by Turkey, Orhan Bey and Fatma Gul, in the same situation as the one in Jiyyé. The Lebanese government is still holding on to some, such as the one located north of the capital, Zouk, which, while not completely at zero, its "stocks are also almost dry and will soon no longer be able to operate". More and more plants are joining the long list of plants with empty stocks and, if the situation does not change radically, all plants will soon become part of the list.

"The grid has already experienced total blackouts across the country seven times and, if this continues, there is a high risk of a total and complete blackout by the end of September," say the EDL. This is not the first time that the authorities have warned of the possibility of a total blackout in the country, but the steady decline in reserves means that the worst-case scenario is looming ever closer. The fact is that the aid arriving from Iraq is not being sufficient to deal with the energy crisis.

The state energy company adds that "the quantities of Iraqi fuel are only sufficient to produce 500 megawatts of electricity in the best case scenario, and this threatens the stability of the grid and suggests a total collapse at any moment". The EDL itself has blamed the Central Bank of Lebanon for almost completely eliminating subsidies that facilitated the purchase of fuel and other commodities since the crisis began two years ago. This withdrawal of subsidies has caused prices to skyrocket across the country, spilling over from the energy crisis into the economic and social crisis.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati travelled to Paris on Thursday to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron. It is hoped that what is already his first official visit since the election of the new government will be able to obtain some kind of aid to alleviate, albeit minimally, the extreme situation the country is going through. It should be recalled that France was one of those who exerted intense pressure for the formation of the government that was left without a head after the explosion in Beirut in the summer of last year.

While Mikati meets with Macron, the International Support Group for Lebanon welcomed the formation of the new government and parliament's vote of confidence in the administration and its programme. In addition, negotiations are underway for the delivery of Egyptian gas through Syria and Jordan. Fundamental to this has been the exceptional lifting of certain US sanctions on the Damascus government in order to be able to implement this plan.