Russia maps out new wheat routes
Russia, the world's leading exporter of wheat, is strengthening its dominant position in the Black Sea and is seeking to redesign the routes for this grain used for bread, thanks to exceptional harvests and aggressive prices.
"Russia alone guarantees a quarter of the world's wheat exports, and has consistent reserves," says Sébastien Abis, author of "Géopolitique du blé" (Geopolitics of Wheat) and researcher at the French Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
The war in Ukraine opened up new routes, such as the Danube river routes. This allowed Kiev to continue exporting grain despite the suspension in mid-July of the Black Sea grain agreement, which Turkey is seeking to resume and for which it is preparing "a set of proposals" together with the UN, its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said on Monday after a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
But above all, the conflict, which began in February 2022, underpins Russia's dominance of the global wheat trade.
On the one hand, the waterways remain "fragile", as they are regularly bombed, recalls economist Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington.
On the other hand, while the sea corridor "allowed about 33 million tonnes of agricultural products to leave the country" in one year, "it did not help Ukraine to recover in terms of agricultural production as a result of the war itself", which amputated a quarter of its arable land, he explains.
Agricultural reorganisation
In 2023-24, world wheat production is expected to be less abundant than the previous crop, partly as a result of climatic events in Canada and Australia. Consumption estimates are 20 million tonnes (MT) higher than production.
In this context, "the world expects 45 MT of Russian wheat to reach the market," stresses David Laborde, director of the economics division of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
This Russian dominance has a history: "Fifty-five years ago, half of the world's wheat exports came from the United States. In the last fifty years, we have seen a diversification of the world market," says the economist.
With the war, "everything accelerated", stresses Abis. "Grain-producing Russia 'Russified' its wheat diplomacy: we are no longer subject to the rules of the market".
When the Black Sea grain agreement came to an end, Putin promised free deliveries to six African countries (which account for less than 1% of Russian exports), preferential tariffs for Egypt - a friendly nation - and low prices to maintain a competitive advantage.
Moscow "draws new maps, both strategically because it does not play with the same tools (as other market players), but also on the basis of the fact that Russia is the only one that produces more and exports more. The only country competing with Russia in terms of trends was Ukraine," Abis points out.
"Neutral" importers
This hegemony carries significant weight for countries such as Egypt and Turkey, which are by far the top two importers of Russian wheat.
While the former imports 80% of its wheat from the Black Sea, the latter transforms the grain into flour for re-export to the Middle East, Africa or Asia, says Laborde.
The most dependent countries are those that consume the most bread, such as those in North Africa, but also Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Russia's weight traces trade routes "that are not logical in terms of geography", says Abis. For example, Morocco and Algeria, traditional customers of France, have changed their import rules in order to be able to buy Russian wheat