Saudi Arabia needs the US to develop nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuels
Nuclear power is the best alternative for carbon-free energy generation, but Saudi Arabia needs a partner to develop its nuclear programme, and it is pointing to the United States
Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030 plans aim to reduce the kingdom's economic dependence on oil and fossil fuels by turning to renewable energy as an alternative.
- High consumption of fossil fuels
- Nuclear energy, the best alternative
- A nuclear partner for Saudi Arabia
- Differences with the IAEA
- Agreement with the United States
The aim is to achieve zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, as set out in the so-called Saudi Green Initiative.
High consumption of fossil fuels
On paper, the project is irreproachable: a commitment to renewable energies in a country with a high number of hours of sunshine per year. However, the maths don't add up.
Fossil fuel consumption per capita remains high in Saudi Arabia. Although it is the lowest in comparison with the other Gulf countries (86,793 kWh, compared to more than 225,000 kWh in Qatar), it is much higher than in Germany, for example (28,554 kWh).
It does not appear that this dependence can be reduced in the short term, especially not by relying exclusively on renewable energy sources.
The experience of neighbouring countries such as the United Arab Emirates has shown Saudi Arabia that, despite the fact that the Gulf region is one of the sunniest in the world, solar energy is not enough to completely replace fossil fuels.
Nuclear energy, the best alternative
According to a study by the International Energy Agency and the OECD, nuclear is the available low-carbon technology with the lowest projected costs by 2025.
The study points out that the only comparable technology in terms of cost would be large hydroelectric dams, which rely heavily on countries' natural water sources. In the case of the Gulf countries, this option is ruled out.
In the United Arab Emirates, for example, they already realised this need and opted for nuclear energy a few years ago, achieving that, from 2019, this source will provide most of the primary energy consumed in the country.
A nuclear partner for Saudi Arabia
The kingdom is already moving in this direction: in 2022, Saudi Arabia invited companies from countries such as Russia, China and South Korea to submit technical offers for the construction of two 1.4 GW nuclear reactors in Khor Al-Duwayhin, an area located on the east coast of the country, close to Arabia's borders with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Last July, the Saudi authorities reported that China National Nuclear Power Corporation, Électricité de France, Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) and Russia's Rosatom had been the approved bidders.
However, the US has an interest in becoming Saudi Arabia's nuclear partner, for strategic reasons: the Saudi kingdom's security could be threatened by Iranian-backed terrorist groups, which could attack the country's nuclear facilities.
And Saudi Arabia also favours having the United States as a partner. Indeed, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said in June 2023 that the kingdom ‘strongly prefers the United States to be one of the bidders’ for its programme.
In 2008, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) outlining the intention of both sides to cooperate on nuclear activities in the fields of medicine, industry and electricity production.
During the presidencies of Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the United States and Saudi Arabia negotiated a bilateral agreement on civil nuclear energy, which was not reached.
Differences with the IAEA
The stumbling block that has prevented a nuclear deal between Saudi Arabia and the United States has to do with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which obliges it to accept IAEA safeguards on all its nuclear facilities.
The Saudi government has not yet signed an additional comprehensive safeguards protocol, which would enhance the IAEA's ability to investigate all undeclared nuclear facilities and activities, although it requested full implementation of the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement from the IAEA last July.
Without implementation of that protocol, the US will not take the step of becoming Saudi Arabia's nuclear energy development partner.
Agreement with the United States
With such a request in place, agreement with the United States may be a matter of time. The two countries could even be working together on a US-led uranium enrichment project on Saudi soil as early as September 2023, according to press reports.
In any case, future nuclear cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia will require approval by the US Department of Energy and the US Congress.
According to section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, nuclear agreements with foreign governments are subject to a number of very restrictive conditions, including a written report from the US president certifying that ‘the proposed agreement will enhance and not pose a risk to the common defence and security’.
In addition, Congress is required to review the agreement for two periods totalling 90 days of continuous sessions.
In both cases, we will have to wait for the US presidential election to see whether the responsibility for implementing these agreements falls to Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.