South America's largest economy at a crossroads due to pandemic

Two months after the start of the quarantine in São Paulo to stop the pandemic, the government of Brazil's richest and most populous state is debating whether to go into total confinement, due to the indiscriminate increase in outbreaks, or to avoid an economic catastrophe in the region. The crossroads will be defined in the next few days by Governor João Doria, who, despite the measures he implemented to further strengthen the quarantine, has not managed to get most Sao Paulo residents indoors. 

The situation has led him to consider the possibility of ordering a total confinement, or a 'lockdown', as it is known worldwide, a measure that would extend the economic paralysis in the region for a longer period in exchange for the well-being of its people. São Paulo, with 46 million inhabitants - 22% of the Brazilian population - is the epicenter of the pandemic in the country with 6,163 deaths and more than 82,000 infected, according to the latest official tally. In Brazil, the country with the second most coronavirus cases in the world, Covid-19 has taken the lives of more than 22,600, with more than 360,000 infected. 

Sao Paulo state, known as the “engine” of Brazil’s economy, launched its lockdown on March 24, a week after the country’s first Covid-19 death, which in fact occurred in the same-named state capital. São Paulo's isolation rate on that first day of quarantine was 54%, but the maximum reached since its implementation has been 59%, without ever reaching the desired 70%.  

The governor's initial idea was that the isolation would not extend for so long and he even thought about starting a "gradual" reopening of the economy on May 11, but the same dilemma that now, two weeks later, has placed him at a dire crossroads, forced him to back off at that time. Although Doria initially guaranteed that São Paulo's industry would not stop because of the quarantine, dozens of factories, mainly vehicle assemblers, have already stopped activities because of the situation and ordered collective vacations. The pressure to reactivate businesses in the region is strong and new measures have been tried in recent weeks in a failed attempt to keep people at home to control contagion and normalize economic activities. 

And rightly so, for Sao Paulo is responsible for more than a third of the national GDP and almost 40% of Brazil's industrial production. In addition, it is an important logistic link for the country's supply chain, since the huge port of Santos is located there, Latin America’s largest maritime terminal. 

The objective of implementing the quarantine in São Paulo was the same as in other countries like Spain, Italy or the United States, to keep as many people at home as possible to prevent chaos in the public health system, due to the lack of a vaccine and medications that would help contain the virus.  

However, several reasons have led people to the streets. The main one has been the need of the poorest, those who cannot stay at home and need to go out to get their daily bread. There are also the workers in essential services, those who cannot be absent so that society does not go into total collapse. In São Paulo there are a good number of these workers, who are concentrated, above all, in the state capital. It is followed by the unemployed, people who are neither studying nor working; a group that includes pensioners, the elderly and young people who have not been able to enter university or who have not managed to find work.  

And there is also the example and the disparity of the speeches that are heard daily from the rulers. While Doria promotes social isolation, as suggested by scientific studies and the World Health Organization (WHO), the president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, downplays the pandemic, calling it just a “little flu” and insisting that people need to get out and back to work because “Brazil can’t stop.”