The Casablanca Stock Exchange closes a record year and positive outlook for 2025 is projected
The Casablanca Stock Exchange closed the year 2024 with a historic performance, with the MASI index registering an annual increase of 22.16%. On 20 November it reached a high of 14,986 points, a level not recorded since 2008. In addition, market capitalisation reached a new record high of 765.1 billion dirhams, according to figures reported by Le Matin.
This increase was driven by several key factors, including the monetary easing policy implemented by Bank Al-Maghrib, the control of inflation to 0.8% in November 2024 (compared to 6.6% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2023) and the return of interest rates to positive territory for the first time since 2021. In addition, the half-yearly earnings mass of listed companies - excluding Morocco Telecom - increased by 26% in H1 2024, reflecting a remarkable economic recovery.
Sectors such as real estate and construction have benefited from the launch of the new housing aid programme, as well as projects related to the organisation of the 2025 African Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup in Morocco.
Moderate increase expected by 2025
For 2025, the MSIN forecasts a continuation of the upward dynamic that started at the end of 2022, albeit at a moderate pace compared to 2024. This progression will be supported by several factors: controlled inflation, around 2%, which will allow Bank Al-Maghrib to maintain an accommodative monetary policy; a reduction in interest rates that favours arbitrage in favour of equities; and an improvement in the profits of listed companies, driven by the recovery of the banking, construction and tourism sectors, as well as investments in infrastructures.
Moreover, the mobilisation for the reconstruction of Al Haouz after the earthquake, with a budget of 120 billion dirhams to be implemented over five years, and the recovery of the real estate sector, supported by the housing aid programme planned until 2028, should also boost this dynamic.
The agricultural sector, if weather conditions are favourable, could further reinforce this trend. Finally, the planned privatisations, estimated at 9 billion dirhams by 2025 compared to 3 billion dirhams in 2024, as well as increased activity in the capital markets, especially through IPOs and capital increases, should strengthen the market's attractiveness to investors.
Despite valuation levels considered high, MSIN analysts believe that ‘the profitability of listed companies remains attractive’, according to their report. To take advantage of market opportunities, they recommend a strategy focused on companies that meet strong fundamental criteria: good visibility, attractive valuation, earnings improvement and financial strength.
In doing so, they encourage investors to adjust their portfolios in favour of these stocks in order to maximise opportunities in a market with high potential, but which requires rigorous and strategic selection.