Western pressure for oil production increases now turning to Iraq

The West continues to push for an increase in global oil production in the face of the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The United States and the European Union (EU) had urged the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase the level of crude oil production in order to tackle the rise in fuel prices and to avoid international energy dependence on Russia after the war unleashed by the Russian state in Ukraine. 

Now the focus is on Iraq. The Gulf country is expected to break OPEC discipline, as reported by Al-Arab, and thus not respect the volume of crude oil production agreed by the organisation's members. According to Al-Arab, Iraq's oil minister, Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar, said this weekend that Iraq has been under pressure to increase its oil production outside the OPEC agreement. 

The West, mainly the United States, as reported by Al-Arab, has urged countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to break OPEC's agreement to increase oil production even more, something that was rejected by these countries. 
 

OPEC members have defended the last agreed production level and have not acceded to the demands regarding the increase in production despite the insistence of the North American giant and the EU, which yearn for this in order to confront rising prices and energy dependence on Russia. 

According to Al-Arab, analysts point out that after the failure of attempts to convince Saudi Arabia and the UAE, efforts are now being directed at trying to convince other less powerful countries such as Iraq. The Gulf country, whose main source of revenue is oil, recorded its highest rate of oil revenues in 50 years in March, with exports equivalent to $11.07 billion, amid rising world oil prices in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Iraqi oil revenues in March reached their highest level since 1972, according to preliminary oil ministry figures.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke on the phone and praised the work and agreements within OPEC. 

The main member countries of the organisation, such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, have wanted to separate the oil market from any political issue, and for this reason have wanted to separate what has been discussed within OPEC+, which brings together the world's main oil exporting nations along with other partner countries such as Russia, from any political issue, such as in this case the one related to the invasion of Ukraine.

The harsh economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and the EU due to the military operation on Ukrainian territory have affected the Russian country and the situation has led to an increase in fuel prices, something that the West is trying to address. But pressure on OPEC and OPEC+ has had no effect, and nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have not yielded to Western pressure. This was evident in the latest dialogue between the Russian president and the Saudi crown prince, in which they agreed on a positive assessment of the work carried out by OPEC+, as reported by Al-Arab.

In the same vein, at the end of March, US President Joe Biden himself announced the release of one million barrels of oil per day to combat inflation. Biden spoke of a "historic release" that would bring 180 million barrels of US strategic oil reserves onto the market over the next six months. "This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to bridge the gap until the end of the year, when domestic production ramps up," Washington announced.

OPEC members pointed out that there is balance now, that the oil market is governed by the rules of supply and demand and that the current price volatility is only due to geopolitical tensions. In this sense, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has remained firm in its latest decision to increase its production from May onwards by 432,000 barrels per day over the figure previously set, as opposed to the 400,000 barrels it has been increasing recently.

This scenario also underlies the political distancing of countries such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates from the United States after the North American giant has neglected the Middle East to focus more on the Indo-Pacific area in order to offer greater opposition to the political and economic expansionism of China, now considered its main rival. The US had a greater interest in the Middle East in the past because of issues such as oil and the protection of Israel, its main ally in the region, but it is now more energy self-sufficient because of its own resources and Israel is in a more favourable situation after the US-sponsored Abraham Accords established diplomatic ties with several Arab countries that give it more stability in the region, and the situation has changed. Even the United States decided to pull out of Afghanistan, which has led to the Taliban coming to power and greater regional instability, and has reduced military support for the Arab coalition fighting the war in Yemen against the Houthi rebels, a Shiite militia close to Iran that has carried out drone and missile attacks on Saudi and Emirati oil and airport installations, something that has led to the current estrangement with the North American giant. 

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra