What does Joe Biden's retirement mean for the US economy?
The United States is in the midst of a political debate, with an increasingly divided and polarised society. The gap between conservatives and liberals has widened. Lack of compromise and aggressive rhetoric has led to a situation where citizens feel increasingly divided and disunited.
In the last 24 days, the United States has experienced a period of great political tension and polarisation, comparable only to the most critical moments in the country's history. Nixon's resignation in 1974, following the Watergate scandal, and the assassination of JFK in 1963, are just two examples of times when the nation was embroiled in a political crisis similar to the current one.
However, the last few days have been particularly tense, with an election debate that attracted more than 85 million Americans, followed by an assassination attempt on Donald Trump and, just days later, the resignation of Joe Biden as a candidate for the 5 November election. This series of events has generated a climate of uncertainty and division in the country of the stars and stripes, leading many to wonder what will happen next.
The economic situation has provoked immediate reactions, in a country where the household economy is a determining factor in election results. The labour market is characterised by a sense of uncertainty and unease, as a result of discussions about taxes, immigration and international trade.
Impact on bonds and bitcoin
The fact that Trump is still seen as the stronger candidate in the face of the almost inevitable Joe Biden-Harris swap could mean a similar move for yields and bond prices if she wins the Democratic nomination.
As for bonds, Timothy Holland, financial analyst and chief investment officer at Orion explained that while "there is not much to rally for", yields rose after the presidential debate and prices fell as Wall Street weighed the potential Republican advantage on election day ahead of the possibility that she would extend tax cuts and additional government spending.
The more uncertainty there is about who the Democratic nominee will be, the better off gold will be, said Peter Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. "Investors will seek shelter until they can assess whether Joe Biden's successor will continue or abandon the policies of higher taxes, more regulation and more government intervention," he said.
In the coming days, Trump will speak at Bitcoin 2024, the world's largest bitcoin conference, to be held in the United States from 25-27 July. At the same time, two memecoins related to Joe Biden fell by more than 50% immediately after the announcement and rose by 18%. While these assets are purely speculative, they serve as an indicator of voter sentiment.
Northern states betting: a key factor in the 2016 presidential campaign
2016 saw high voter turnout due to job losses in the manufacturing sector, unfair competition in the labour market, globalisation and immigration in northern states.
Those who are struggling economically, including those who lost their jobs or had their incomes decline, tend to vote for candidates who support their policies. In that sense, Donald Trump stressed the importance of creating jobs and boosting economic growth, emphasising his focus on empowering workers.
On that occasion, the votes in the states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the latter being where an attempt was made to assassinate Donald Trump, were key to the billionaire winning the presidency of the White House.
In this election, unlike in 2016, there are many open fronts. In this election, the financing of the war in Ukraine and Russia is the issue that has generated great concern among citizens. The Republican candidate and former president, Donald Trump, has been very clear in his stance to stop financially supporting the conflict, which has generated great controversy and debate in the country.
In particular, Trump has been critical of the way the war has been funded, and has suggested that he could resolve the conflict in just 48 hours. However, his dangerous talk of threatening to stop funding Ukraine has generated great concern among security and economic experts.
The point is that war funding could have a significant impact on the US economy, and voters in northern states will have a difficult choice to make when choosing between the candidates and their proposals. Recall that the top five arms companies are American.
It is important for voters to reflect on the consequences of the economic decisions leaders make and how they affect society. The economy is a complex issue that requires a sustainable and responsible approach. It is time for leaders and voters to work together to build a more prosperous and sustainable future for all.