Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 15 December

1. Introduction
2. Australia: anti-Semitic attack in Bondi (Sydney) and a political response that risks falling short
3. Chile: victory for José Antonio Kast; defeat for Jeannette Jara; and a reckoning with a hard left that wanted to present itself as ‘centrist’
4. Berlin: Zelensky and Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff; Ukraine offers to renounce NATO in exchange for ‘Article 5-type’ guarantees
5. United Kingdom: the new head of MI6 describes Russia as an ‘aggressive, expansionist and revisionist’ threat
6. Hong Kong: Jimmy Lai's conviction; Beijing's warning to the free world about press and dissent
7. Guatemala: cartels attack military and police posts, state of emergency declared, and organised crime tests the strength of the state
8. Venezuela–US: sanctions, seizure of an oil tanker and political clash for a domino effect on the energy market
9. Gaza: death of a Hamas commander, direct threat to the ceasefire and debate on international force
10. China–Japan: Beijing sanctions former Japanese defence official; political coercion over Taiwan
11. Syria: attack in Palmyra against US and Syrian forces, arrests and a reminder that jihadism has not disappeared
12. Media rack
13. Editorial commentary

Introduction

Today's map does not depict an ‘unstable’ planet in the abstract; it depicts a West that is beginning to understand—sometimes through hardship, sometimes at the wrong time—that security is not a luxury, but the moral prerequisite for freedom. The anti-Semitic massacre in Bondi (Sydney) is not just an attack on a community; it is a direct challenge to liberal coexistence, pluralism and the right of every citizen to live their faith without fear.

At the same time, the advance of organised crime to the point of attacking military and police facilities in Guatemala is a reminder of something that too many governments prefer to forget: without a legitimate monopoly on force, there is no state; and without a state, there are no rights. And, as a backdrop, Russia ‘exports chaos’ — in the words of the new head of MI6 — while Europe negotiates in Berlin with the sword of Damocles hanging over it in the form of a ‘cheap’ peace that could prove very costly.

Chile, for its part, offers an uncomfortable lesson: when a hard left disguises itself as moderation and government management is eroded by insecurity, stagnation and frustration, the pendulum swings hard; but that does not automatically make the winner a guarantee of common sense. The vote punishes — and sometimes overreacts — and the duty of analysis is to avoid easy enthusiasm and sterile defeatism.

Australia: anti-Semitic attack in Bondi (Sydney) and a political response that risks falling short

Facts

On the night of 14 December, two attackers opened fire at a Hanukkah event in Bondi Beach, with about 1,000 people in attendance, in an attack described by authorities as targeted and anti-Semitic. The attack lasted approximately ten minutes and caused mass panic in an iconic location, crowded with people enjoying the Australian summer heat.

The latest update puts the death toll at 15, with one attacker shot dead, bringing the total number of fatalities to 16, including a 10-year-old girl and a rabbi. Dozens were injured, with 40 people still hospitalised and two police officers in serious but stable condition.

Police said the alleged perpetrators were father and son; the father (50) died at the scene and the son (24) remained in critical condition. The father had held a firearms licence since 2015 and had six registered weapons. A civilian — identified by local media as Ahmed al-Ahmed — was filmed subduing and disarming one of the attackers, an action that, according to authorities, prevented an even higher death toll.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the incident as an ‘act of pure evil,’ an ‘act of anti-Semitism’ and an ‘act of terrorism,’ saying that anti-Semitism ‘is a scourge’ that must be eradicated. However, his immediate political focus was on reviewing limits on the number of guns per licence and the duration of licences, arguing that people can become radicalised over time.

Implications

The criticism here is not of responsible gun control — which is part of the debate — but of the hierarchy of priorities. Australia has had a strict regime in place since 1996, and yet Reuters notes that the number of legal firearms has risen to around four million, above pre-reform levels. To pretend that the problem boils down to ‘how many licences’ is to confuse the means with the end. The strategic issue is another: radicalisation, hatred and detection failures.

Albanese has said the right words (‘anti-Semitism has no place’), yes. But the conventional discourse—the one limited to ritual condemnations and administrative reforms—falls far short in the face of a reality that has been worsening for some time: anti-Semitism is growing, and it is doing so through three mutually reinforcing channels: jihadist extremism, far-left identity extremism that trivialises or justifies hatred, and the disturbing emergence of the far right and neo-Nazism. Reducing it to a problem of ‘licences’ conveys a dangerous idea: that fanaticism can be combated with forms.

The democratic state has specific duties: enhanced protection of places of worship and community events; effective criminal prosecution of hate crimes; dismantling of financing and propaganda networks; and an integration policy that does not become naivety. And, above all, moral clarity: anti-Semitism is not ‘rhetorical excess’ or ‘social tension’; it is a political pathology that precedes the worst European catastrophes. London and New York increased security at Hanukkah events after the attack, a sign that the risk is perceived as systemic, not local.

Chile: victory for José Antonio Kast; defeat for Jeannette Jara; and a reckoning with a hard left that wanted to present itself as ‘centrist’

Facts

Chile elected its president in a second round of voting on 14 December. José Antonio Kast won with 58% of the vote against Jeannette Jara, who obtained 42%. Reuters describes a ‘sharp’ shift to the right, with Kast campaigning on security and immigration and promising military deployments in high-crime areas, border walls and deportations.
The Financial Times emphasises that the victory can be explained by social concerns about crime and immigration, noting that the homicide rate has more than doubled since 2015, although Chile remains relatively safer than other countries in the region. The FT itself points to the operational difficulty: Kast does not have a clear majority and a divided Congress may slow down more radical initiatives.

The Guardian and The Times emphasise Kast's ‘ultra-conservative’ nature and his admiration for Pinochet, and present Jara as a communist candidate or one linked to the hard left.

Implications

Here it is important to be clear: Jara represents an ideological tradition that, when it has had real power, has tended to curtail freedoms, justify authoritarianism and dictatorships of ‘friends’ and comrades-in-arms, and treat the economy as a permanent social experiment, ruining countries. The fact that part of the international press focuses almost exclusively on ‘the extreme right’ and treats Jara's ideological pedigree with kid gloves is, quite simply, an exercise in moral asymmetry.

That said, caution is a must: Kast does not deserve a blank cheque. Chile needs neither social engineering dogmatism nor identity crusades of the opposite sign. The electoral mandate is, above all, a cry for security and order; but order without guarantees degenerates, and security without the rule of law becomes arbitrariness. In a country that has experienced dictatorship, the language of ‘heavy-handedness’ must be tied to institutional controls and proportionality.

Regarding Gabriel Boric: his domestic management —the economy, perceptions of insecurity, failed reforms— has fuelled discontent. But it would be dishonest to deny that Boric, in contrast to the hard-line Latin American left, has shown a more courageous shift in foreign policy by denouncing abuses in Venezuela and Nicaragua: Reuters reported his rejection of Maduro's ‘self-proclaimed’ victory and his denunciation of ‘serious human rights violations.’ Even voices in the US press highlighted his willingness to speak out about abuses in Venezuela and Nicaragua, something rare in some progressive circles.

The strategic conclusion for Chile is twofold: a left-wing government cannot continue to play ambiguous games with regional authoritarianism; and a victorious right wing must not confuse social discontent with a mandate to strain the liberal framework. Chile needs security, yes, but it also needs strong institutions and an economy that regains credibility without sacrificing cohesion.

Berlin: Zelensky and Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff; Ukraine offers to renounce NATO in exchange for ‘Article 5-type’ guarantees

Facts

In Berlin, President Volodymyr Zelensky held more than five hours of talks with US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with the aim of exploring a negotiated end to the war. The talks were set to continue on Monday.

The most significant development is Zelensky's shift: he offered to abandon Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO, even though this is a goal enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution, in exchange for legally binding ‘Article 5-type’ security guarantees (i.e., comparable to those of collective defence) from the West, with the participation of the US and European partners, as well as Canada and Japan.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warned that guarantees without significant US involvement ‘would not be worth much,’ recalling Ukraine's bitter experience with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

Implications

This is a turning point. Ukraine is offering Russia one of its historic strategic demands: to halt NATO expansion. And it is doing so in a context in which Moscow has demonstrated — through actions, not words — that it understands concessions as incentives. The question is not whether negotiating is bad (it is not); the question is whether negotiating without enforceable guarantees is suicidal.

A ‘quick deal’ that does not include real deterrence will be a truce to rearm... but rearm them, not us. That is why Europe must abandon rhetorical comfort and enter the realm of hard power: capabilities, ammunition, industry, intelligence and will. A ceasefire without a security architecture would be the prelude to a new Russian offensive when the context is favourable.

On the diplomacy of Trump and his team: pragmatism can be a virtue, as long as it does not become naivety. No sensible person wants eternal war. But rewarding territorial acquisition by force would undermine the principle that has underpinned the European international system since 1945. The dilemma is not ‘peace or war’; it is ‘just peace or apparent peace’.

United Kingdom: the new head of MI6 describes Russia as an ‘aggressive, expansionist and revisionist’ threat

Facts

Blaise Metreweli, the first woman to head MI6, delivers her first major public message since taking office in October. In advance excerpts, she describes Russia as an ‘aggressive, expansionist and revisionist’ threat and affirms that British support for Ukraine is “enduring”.

Metreweli uses a politically devastating formulation: the ‘export of chaos’ is a feature, not a bug, not a bug) of the Russian approach, and calls for strengthening the technological and innovative component of espionage, to the point of stating that agents must be as comfortable with ‘lines of code’ as with human sources, ‘as fluent in Python as in multiple languages’.

At the same time, a call is made for a "whole society approach in the face of increasing threats and the increased likelihood — according to commanders — that Russia will attack a NATO country.

Implications

MI6 is saying out loud what many governments still treat as an ‘academic debate’: Russia is not only fighting in Ukraine; it is fighting against Western cohesion through sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and strategic corruption. The ‘frontline’ (frontline—front) is no longer a trench: it is an intimidated university, an attacked power grid, a campaign of fake news on social media, shady financing of extremists, and instrumentalised migratory pressure.

The consequence is clear: lukewarmness is a risk multiplier. If Europe does not make defence a national priority, it will continue to depend on the decisions of others. And if the idea that Russia can win ‘by attrition’ takes hold, we will see more aggression, not less.

Hong Kong: Jimmy Lai's conviction; Beijing's warning to the free world about press and dissent

Facts

The Hong Kong High Court found Jimmy Lai guilty of two counts of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces under Beijing's national security law and conspiracy to publish seditious material under sedition regulations. He faces life imprisonment, with mitigation hearings scheduled for January.

Reuters summarises that the case has become the greatest symbol of the contraction of freedoms since 2019–2020. AP emphasises that the trial was held without a jury, with judges appointed for national security cases, and that Lai — founder of Apple Daily — has been in detention since 2020.

Implications

This is not an ‘internal’ legal process. It is a strategic message: freedom of the press can be redefined as a crime when those in power feel they can act with impunity. And that has consequences on three levels.

First, Hong Kong loses what made it unique: legal certainty and openness. Second, democracies are challenged: what does it mean to be an ally of values if a British citizen is crushed by the courts for writing and associating with foreign politicians? Third, an exportable model is normalised: if there is no cost, authoritarianism becomes cheaper.

Guatemala: cartels attack military and police posts, state of emergency declared, and organised crime tests the strength of the state

Facts

President Bernardo Arévalo declared a 15-day state of emergency in Nahuala and Santa Catarina Ixtahuacan (Sololá) after armed men attacked a military post and a police station, blocked roads and hijacked buses. There were at least five deaths.

Arévalo said the gangs are seeking to expel the security forces to take control of the area; the decree restricts public gatherings, demonstrations and the carrying of weapons.
In the regional context, El País recalled a few days ago an incursion linked to the Sinaloa Cartel in Guatemala involving weapons, explosives and the use of drones, illustrating the growing sophistication and transnational nature of the phenomenon.

Implications

This is narco-insurgency in functional terms: not because of ideology, but because of its objective. The cartel does not want ‘money and silence’ alone; it wants territory and the withdrawal of the state. That is a qualitative frontier.

The challenge requires toughness, yes, but not indiscriminate brutality: financial intelligence, border control, purging of infiltrated bodies, cooperation with Mexico and partners (including anti-drone technology), and protection of judges and prosecutors. Naivety here is paid for with cemeteries.

Venezuela–US: sanctions, seizure of an oil tanker and political clash for a domino effect on the energy market

Facts

Reuters reports a resurgence of tensions between the US and Venezuela following the seizure of an oil tanker and new measures that have hit exports; at the same time, the Venezuelan opposition (with María Corina Machado) is intensifying its international political offensive.

Implications

Pressure on the Maduro regime is politically legitimate when it is aimed at a democratic transition and cutting off opaque sources of funding. But it has two risks: regional escalation (migration, incidents in the Caribbean) and energy volatility, which can be exploited by Russia and Iran to put pressure on Europe.

The key for the West here is coordination: effective, not theatrical sanctions; support for civil society, not just elites; and closing financial loopholes without punishing the population.

Gaza: death of a Hamas commander, direct threat to the ceasefire and debate on international force

Facts

Reuters reports that Hamas has described the death of a senior commander in an Israeli action as a threat to the ceasefire, in a context where stabilisation formulas and the question of a possible international force are being discussed, while Hamas rejects disarmament.

Implications

The equation is simple and cruel: without a security architecture, any incident can break the truce. The international community must stop living by slogans: stabilising Gaza without real disarmament or effective control of the territory is like building on sand. At the same time, ignoring the humanitarian dimension fuels radicalisation and provides propaganda ammunition to Tehran and its proxies.

China–Japan: Beijing sanctions former Japanese defence official; political coercion over Taiwan

Facts

Reuters reports Chinese sanctions against a former Japanese defence official linked to the Taiwan dispute, in yet another episode of coercive diplomacy by Beijing.

Implications

China is seeking a disciplinary effect: to discourage political contacts, sow fear among businesses and divide allies. This is the classic “individual cost” technique to prevent collective responses. The Western response must be the opposite: to collectivise the cost when normal diplomatic relations in democracies are punished.

Syria: attack in Palmyra against US and Syrian forces, arrests and a reminder that jihadism has not disappeared

Facts

Reuters reports arrests in Syria following an attack in Palmyra that affected US and Syrian troops; the episode is part of the continuing threat from jihadist groups, despite the territorial degradation of ISIS.

Implications

Jihadist terrorism thrives on two things: power vacuums and propaganda. Syria offers both. And if the West mentally withdraws from the problem, it will find it returning in the form of attacks, online radicalisation and returnees. Counter-terrorism surveillance cannot be cyclical; it must be structural.

Media rack

Agencies and information ‘baseline’

• Reuters / AP / AFP / DPA set the factual tone for the day: figures, timelines, official reactions and initial economic impacts. In Chile, Reuters and FT focus on security, migration and market reaction. In Guatemala, AP describes the qualitative leap in organised crime towards direct attacks on state forces.
• This ‘baseline’ is essential: without facts, analysis degenerates into catechism. And yet, the fact alone does not explain the why. That is the editorial job.

United States: domestic polarisation and the security prism

• In the US ecosystem, the NYT / Washington Post / CNN / CBS tend to frame attacks and violence with a socio-political and regulatory emphasis; the WSJ / CNBC prioritise economic and market implications; Politico / The Hill offer a tactical, institutional and power-based interpretation.
• On the subject of Australia and anti-Semitism, the US press tends to oscillate between the frameworks of ‘armed violence’ and ‘hate crime,’ and does not always integrate the complete triangle: jihadism + extreme left-wing identity politics + extreme right-wing neo-Nazism. This omission is not neutral: it is a form of moral disarmament.

United Kingdom: Russia as a total threat and hybrid warfare

• The Guardian and Reuters highlight Metreweli's message: Russia as an ‘aggressive’ threat and the concept of ‘front everywhere’.
• The Times / The Telegraph often accompany this approach with concern for defence, intelligence and national cohesion; the difference between the headlines is the degree of alarm and the emphasis on ‘whole society’ as a response.

France and the French-speaking world: ideological reading and rights

• Le Monde / Libération tend to favour the framework of rights and the fear of ‘illiberal’ turns; Le Figaro tends to emphasise public order and the failure of progressive experiments; AFP provides the factual backbone; LCI / BFM / France Info amplify the domestic European debate with a focus on security and political reaction.
• In Chile, the French media is repeatedly tempted to present the ‘far right’ as a self-sufficient explanation, without analysing with the same severity the risk of a hard left with authoritarian tendencies.

Germany, Italy and the Vatican: Europe in the mirror

• FAZ / Die Welt / Die Zeit / DPA tend to view Berlin as proof of German leadership and a barometer of US commitment.
• Corriere della Sera tends to balance European and domestic dimensions; L'Osservatore Romano often introduces a moral and humanitarian lens, especially in conflicts such as Gaza.

Ukraine and Eastern Europe: strategic memory

• Ukrainska Pravda / Ukrinform / Kyiv Post / The Kyiv Independent often remind readers that Russia has already violated commitments and that vague guarantees are worthless; their narrative is less ‘diplomatic’ and more existential. This converges with Pistorius' caution about guarantees without the US.

Russia: propaganda as a weapon

• RT / TASS / Vesti tend to present any Ukrainian concession as a Russian victory and any Western guarantee as provocation. The aim is not to inform, but to erode the legitimacy of the West and fracture consensus.

Asia and Indo-Pacific: Chinese coercion and regional realignment

• SCMP / China Daily tend to frame disputes with Japan and Taiwan as ‘sovereignty’; Straits Times / Yomiuri Shimbun often emphasise regional stability and strategic calculation; WION / Times of India / Hindustan Times / Indian Express tend to read it in terms of the balance of power vis-à-vis Beijing.
• China's sanctioning of a former Japanese official fits the pattern of selective coercion.

Arab world and Israel: Gaza as the focal point

• Al Jazeera tends to prioritise the humanitarian and regional political dimensions; Al Arabiya introduces the prism of intra-Arab rivalries and Iran; Israeli media (Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, etc.) are divided between criticism of the government, security and war. The common point today is the fragility of the ceasefire following the death of a senior Hamas commander.

Editorial commentary

The West has a problem that is not technical: it is one of will. It legislates with relish, condemns with solemnity and administers with prudence, but it sidesteps the core issue: there are enemies —terrorists, cartels and revisionist powers— who have understood before us that freedom only thrives under the umbrella of security.

Bondi is the cruelest mirror. Albanese has said ‘terrorism’ and ‘anti-Semitism,’ yes; but if his response is encapsulated in the debate over the number of weapons per licence, he will have made the classic mistake of the well-intentioned ruler: confusing the measurable with the decisive. Fanaticism is not deactivated by a formality. It is deactivated with intelligence, policing, justice, civic education and, above all, with a discourse that is neither wishful thinking nor lukewarm. Because lukewarmness, when it comes to hatred, is an invitation to repeat the offence.

Chile, with Jara's defeat, is sending a regional message: the hard left can put on a facade, but its ideological DNA shows when it comes to choosing between freedom and ‘cause’. The problem is not realising the radicalisation of the left in Latin America and its colonisation by populist communism. The problem is its indulgence of ‘friendly’ dictatorships and the sectarianism that turns adversaries into moral enemies. Boric has paid — in part — the price for a government that has not been up to the challenge of security and economic confidence; but we should recognise something that is worth its weight in gold in Latin America: his willingness to call fraud fraud in Venezuela and to denounce human rights violations. That is the left that serves democracy, not the one that erodes it.

And yet, beware of the mirage: Kast wins, but Chile has not voted for a catechism. It has voted for a corrective measure. Anyone who interprets the corrective measure as carte blanche to strain the liberal state will be making a mistake that we are already familiar with in Europe. The only legitimate ‘iron fist’ is one that is chained to the rule of law.

In Berlin, something even greater is at stake: the credibility of the West. Ukraine is offering to renounce NATO in exchange for ‘Article 5-type’ guarantees. That can only work if the guarantees are real, binding, verifiable and backed by military capability. Metreweli has put it with British precision: Russia exports chaos as a method. To pretend that a professional aggressor will transform itself out of diplomatic courtesy is a dangerous fantasy.

And while we discuss nuances, Guatemala reminds us that the state can also be lost from below, not just from above. When a cartel attacks a military post, it is not looking for money: it is looking for sovereignty. Faced with this, the Western community must abandon paternalism and commit to real cooperation: intelligence, financial control, training, technology and support for institutions that resist corruption.

The West does not need hysteria; it needs clarity. It does not need relativism; it needs conviction. And, of course, it does not need lukewarmness in the face of anti-Semitism, jihadism or neo-Nazism: it needs the same firmness that we rightly demand from those who confront dictatorships and aggressors. Because freedom is not inherited: it is defended.