Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 20 January
Below is an analysis of current global events, structured around key topics for clear and direct understanding, followed by a summary of coverage in the mainstream media
- Introduction
- Trump links Greenland to Nobel Prize: a childish tantrum
- Massacre in Iran: the jihadist oligarchy crushes the people
- Davos 2026: dialogue under tariff threat
- War in Ukraine: 144 combat operations and 8,000 drones in 24 hours
- Gaza: Phase 2 of the ceasefire with persistent violations
- Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez cooperates with Washington after Maduro's capture
- China: record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion
- EU calls emergency summit: against tariffs of 93 billion
- Putin invited to join the ‘Board of Peace’ for Gaza
- Greenland: 15,000 protesters reject US annexation
- Media rack
- Editorial commentary: The whim of a Caesar and the blood of a people
Introduction
The news cycle on 19-20 January 2026 is marked by a series of events that paint a geopolitical picture of extraordinary complexity and tension. US President Donald Trump has staged an unprecedented diplomatic escalation with his European allies by publicly linking his obsession with acquiring Greenland to his disappointment at not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, threatening punitive tariffs of 10% immediately and 25% in June on eight allied nations. This tantrum is unbecoming of a statesman and more typical of a capricious child, unimaginable in the head of state of the most powerful nation on the planet.
At the same time, the World Economic Forum in Davos is inaugurating its 56th edition under the slogan ‘Spirit of Dialogue’, in a context where confrontation prevails over cooperation. The summit is taking place while the European Union is convening an emergency meeting to coordinate its response to US tariff threats, with France pushing to activate the so-called ‘trade bazooka’ against Washington.
In Iran, the theocratic-oligarchic regime has bloodily suppressed the largest popular uprising since the 1979 Revolution, with figures ranging from 5,000 to 18,000 dead according to different sources, in a massacre that has outraged the international community. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues with 144 daily clashes and more than 8,000 kamikaze drones deployed in the last 24 hours, while negotiations in Miami and Davos attempt to bring positions closer together for an elusive peace.
Trump links Greenland to Nobel Prize: a childish tantrum
Facts
President Trump sent a message to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in which he explicitly linked his demands on Greenland to the fact that the Nobel Committee had not awarded him the Peace Prize. In the message, leaked to the media, Trump states: ‘Considering that your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping 8 wars PLUS, I no longer feel obligated to think purely about peace.’ He then announced tariffs of 10% effective on 1 February on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland, which would increase to 25% in June if no agreement was reached for the ‘total and complete purchase of Greenland’. Asked if he would use military force, Trump replied, ‘No comment.’
Implications
This episode represents a turning point in transatlantic relations. For the leader of the world's greatest democratic power to threaten his closest allies over a personal grievance related to an honorary award is a diplomatic blunder of historic proportions. Prime Minister Støre had to remind Trump that the Nobel Committee is independent of the Norwegian government, a fact of public knowledge that any informed statesman should know. The link between narcissistic resentment and the foreign policy of the world's superpower creates uncertainty that benefits only the West's adversaries: China and Russia. As Kaja Kallas, head of European diplomacy, pointed out: ‘China and Russia must be celebrating.’
Outlook and scenarios
The European Union has called an extraordinary summit for the end of this week, where it plans to respond with counter-tariffs worth €93 billion and the possible activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a legal tool that has never been used before. The Trump administration seems to underestimate Europe's capacity to respond and the determination of allied democracies to defend the principles of territorial sovereignty. However, it must be recognised that the US position on Arctic security has legitimate strategic foundations; the problem lies in the method employed, which undermines decades of transatlantic trust.
Massacre in Iran: the jihadist oligarchy crushes the people
Facts
The Iranian regime has quashed the largest popular uprising since 1979, leaving a catastrophic death toll. The figures vary dramatically: the Iranian authorities acknowledge ‘several thousand’ deaths; human rights groups such as HRANA put the number of confirmed deaths at least 3,300; The Sunday Times reports between 16,500 and 18,000 dead and 330,000 injured; an Iranian official quoted by Reuters admits to more than 5,000 deaths; and Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledged ‘several thousand’ deaths, an unprecedented admission. The internet blackout, which began on 8 January, continues to hamper independent verification. Amnesty International has documented mass killings ‘committed on an unprecedented scale’.
Implications
What has happened in Iran is not the action of an ordinary theocracy, but of what we should properly call a jihadist oligarchy. The Ayatollahs' regime long ago abandoned any pretence of genuine religious legitimacy to become a kleptocratic power structure that uses Islam as an instrument of social control. The documented participation of Iraqi Shia militiamen (up to 5,000 according to CNN) in the internal repression demonstrates the transnational nature of this theocratic mafia. Summary executions, sniper shots to the head and chest, and mass arrests (more than 18,400) paint a picture of a regime that has declared war on its own people.
Outlook and scenarios
President Trump has threatened military action if the executions continue, which has led to a tense pause in the announced hangings. However, the head of the judiciary, Mohseni-Ejei, has stated that sentences must be ‘swift’ in order to have ‘effect’.
The international community must coordinate a strong response: individualised sanctions, diplomatic isolation and support for Iranian civil society. The Iranian people, shouting ‘No to the mullahs, no to the Shah’, have shown that their aspiration is a democratic republic, not a restoration of the monarchy or clerical continuity.
Davos 2026: dialogue under tariff threat
Facts
The 56th World Economic Forum has begun its sessions in Davos under the theme ‘Spirit of Dialogue’, bringing together nearly 3,000 participants, including 65 heads of state and government, 850 CEOs and 100 technology pioneers. Trump will attend in person for the first time since 2020, bringing the largest US delegation in history. Significantly, Denmark has declined to participate in protest at the threats over Greenland. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng will open the sessions, while Zelensky will participate in search of support for Ukraine.
Implications
The irony of a forum dedicated to dialogue being held amid tariff threats is not lost on anyone. Davos 2026 has become the scene of a latent confrontation between Washington and its traditional partners. The ‘USA House’ established for the first time in the Swiss town symbolises the hegemonic ambitions of the Trump administration.
The planned topics are overshadowed by the geopolitical uncertainty generated by the White House.
Outlook and scenarios
Trump is expected to announce the members of the ‘Board of Peace’ for Gaza, to which he has even invited Putin. Bilateral meetings will be decisive: Støre hopes to talk to Trump, and Ukraine-Russia negotiations could move forward. The absence of Xi Jinping, Modi and Lula da Silva indicates that Davos has lost some of its appeal as a truly global forum. The meeting will be remembered more for transatlantic tensions than for the agreements reached.
War in Ukraine: 144 combat operations and 8,000 drones in 24 hours
Facts
On day 1426 of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, there were 144 clashes, 112 air strikes with 316 guided bombs, 8,156 kamikaze drones and 3,875 bombings. Ukrainian forces destroyed two tanks, three armoured vehicles, 39 artillery systems and 765 Russian drones. Total Russian losses since February 2022 have reached 1,227,440 casualties. Ukraine shot down 126 of 145 drones launched in the latest night-time attack. Russia plans to deploy up to 1,000 drones daily against Ukraine and form 11 new divisions this year with 409,000 recruits.
Implications
The intensification of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the middle of winter constitutes a systematic war crime. Millions of Ukrainians are suffering temperatures of -19°C without heating or electricity. Negotiations in Miami and the prospect of talks in Davos raise hopes for diplomatic progress, although Putin has consistently demonstrated that his ‘default position’ is to continue the war. The proposed 15-year US security guarantees have little credibility given Trump's track record on honouring international commitments.
Outlook and scenarios
Analysts agree that 2026 is unlikely to see an end to the conflict. Putin does not consider Ukraine a legitimate nation, and his commanders maintain offensive objectives in the four claimed regions. Europe must assume greater responsibility for Ukraine's defence and post-conflict guarantees. European support for Kyiv is not charity: it is an investment in the continent's own security. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, the cost of defending Europe will multiply exponentially.
Gaza: Phase 2 of the ceasefire with persistent violations
Special envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the 20-Point Plan for Gaza, which establishes a Palestinian technocratic committee (NCAG) to administer the territory and moves towards demilitarisation and reconstruction. However, since the October 2025 ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 451 Palestinians and wounded 1,251, averaging nearly five deaths per day. Israel has violated the agreement at least 1,193 times and blocked the entry of essential meat, dairy and vegetables, allowing only 255 trucks per day out of the 600 agreed upon. More than 30 international NGOs are banned from operating in Gaza.
Implications
The US administration presents phase two as a step forward, but the reality on the ground is one of systematic Israeli non-compliance. The formation of the ‘Board of Peace’, chaired by Trump and with permanent membership in exchange for a billion dollars, raises suspicions about the commodification of peace. Viktor Orbán has agreed to join; Putin has been invited. The exclusion of María Corina Machado from the Venezuelan process, after she symbolically handed her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump, suggests that Washington could also prioritise stability over democracy in Gaza.
Outlook and scenarios
The reconstruction of Gaza will require more than $50 billion and years of work. The NCAG, led by Ali Shaath, promises to integrate with the Palestinian Authority under a framework of ‘one homeland, one system’. Hamas has welcomed the announcement and declares itself ‘ready’ to hand over the administration. However, fundamental issues remain unresolved. The suffering of the Gazan population continues to be intolerable.
Venezuela: Delcy Rodríguez cooperates with Washington after Maduro's capture
Facts
CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with interim President Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas on Thursday, signalling a rapprochement between the heirs of Chavismo and Washington.
Maduro, captured on 3 January in Operation Absolute Resolve, remains in custody in New York after pleading not guilty to narco-terrorism charges. Trump declared that the United States ‘is in charge’ of Venezuela and that Rodríguez's cooperation has been satisfactory. One hundred and thirty-nine political prisoners have been released out of an estimated 800. Energy Secretary Chris Wright will meet with oil executives to discuss the reactivation of Venezuelan production.
Implications
The fall of narco-dictator Maduro is excellent news for the Venezuelan people, although the method used and the subsequent treatment of the democratic opposition are cause for concern. Trump's preference for negotiating with the heirs of Chavismo (Rodríguez was Maduro's vice-president) rather than with the legitimate leader María Corina Machado and the president-elect Edmundo González Urrutia contradicts the democratic principles that supposedly motivated the intervention. Oil, as Trump himself admitted, has been a determining factor.
Outlook and scenarios
The Venezuelan transition is at a critical juncture. The democratic opposition, which initially celebrated Maduro's downfall, is watching with growing alarm as Washington marginalises its demands. Maduro's trial in New York will be lengthy; negotiations with residual Chavismo may produce a superficial stability that perpetuates illegitimate power structures. Venezuela deserves a genuine transition to democracy, not a mere change of management within the same autocratic structure.
China: record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion
Facts
China recorded a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, an increase of 20% over the previous year, despite US tariffs reaching 47.5%. Exports grew by 5.5% to $3.77 trillion, offsetting the 22% drop in the surplus with the United States in emerging markets. Beijing has published its 2026 tariff plan, reducing rates on 935 strategic products for technological self-sufficiency, including ‘intelligent bionic robots’ and ‘aviation bio-kerosene’.
Implications
The data shows that China has managed to diversify its export markets, reducing its dependence on the United States. The strategy of restructuring supply chains through third countries in Southeast Asia allows it to circumvent US tariffs. The 2026 tariff plan reveals the priorities of the 15th Five-Year Plan: technological self-sufficiency, green transition and health security. China is preparing for prolonged technological competition, not trade reconciliation.
Outlook and scenarios
Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on countries that trade with Iran jeopardises the fragile trade truce with Beijing. China, the main importer of Iranian crude oil, has warned that it will take ‘all necessary measures’ to defend its interests. Trump's trip to Beijing scheduled for April could be complicated or cancelled. The bifurcation of the global economy into rival trading blocs is advancing inexorably, with inflationary consequences for consumers on both sides.
EU calls emergency summit: against tariffs of 93 billion
Facts
The 27 EU ambassadors met urgently on Sunday in Brussels to coordinate their response to Trump's tariff threats. The President of the European Council, António Costa, has called an extraordinary summit for the end of the week.
France, through Macron, is pushing to activate the never-used Anti-Coercion Instrument, which would allow restrictions on licences for US companies and taxes on US services. The package of counter-tariffs prepared amounts to €93 billion on US imports.
Implications
European unity in the face of US coercion is remarkable but fragile. Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin considers it ‘premature’ to activate the anti-coercion instrument, preferring to honour the trade agreement reached last summer. However, that agreement has not been ratified by the European Parliament and could collapse. The threat of a downward trade spiral is real: economists estimate that tariffs could shave a quarter of a percentage point off European GDP this year.
Outlook and scenarios
Europe is at a historic crossroads. Trump's tariffs, targeting individual countries rather than the EU as a whole, could be circumvented through intra-EU re-exportation. However, prolonged uncertainty damages investment and business decisions. The Trump administration seems to be betting that Europe will give in; the EU must show that it can act united and with determination. The pending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the tariffs could radically alter the scenario.
Putin invited to join the ‘Board of Peace’ for Gaza
Facts
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin has received an invitation to join the ‘Board of Peace’ that will oversee the reconstruction of Gaza. The board, chaired by Trump, will include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney among its permanent members. Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has already accepted the invitation. Permanent membership requires a contribution of $1 billion, earmarked for reconstruction. The Kremlin is ‘reviewing’ the invitation and requesting further details.
Implications
The invitation to Putin while he continues his aggression against Ukraine sends a devastating message about the values of the Trump administration. That the person responsible for the largest war of aggression in Europe since 1945 should be invited to a ‘peace’ council is a moral obscenity. The composition of the council, with seats sold for $1 billion, transforms humanitarian reconstruction into a commercial transaction. Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev hailed the tariffs on Europe as proof that ‘transatlantic unity is over.’
Outlook and scenarios
If Russia accepts the invitation, it would create an unprecedented situation: an international aggressor participating in the governance of a conflict zone while waging another active war. The presence of Orbán, Putin's most loyal partner in the EU, reinforces the perception that the ‘Board of Peace’ is a vehicle for legitimising questionable regimes. Traditional US allies are watching with alarm as Washington seems more willing to negotiate with adversaries than to coordinate with friends.
Greenland: 15,000 protesters reject US annexation
Facts
Approximately 15,000 Greenlanders, 25% of the population of Nuuk, demonstrated on Saturday against US plans to acquire their territory. Polls show that 85% of Greenlanders reject incorporation into the United States. Greenland's Prime Minister, Jens-Frederick Nielsen, stated that tariff threats will not change his position.
European troops (Danish, German, French) have symbolically deployed on the island as a show of solidarity and to assess Arctic security, which Trump used as justification for the new tariffs.
Implications
The massive Greenlandic mobilisation shows that the island's people, with their recognised right to self-determination, categorically reject the US proposal. Trump's Arctic security arguments have strategic merit: Greenland's position is indeed crucial vis-à-vis Russia and China. However, the method of economic coercion and veiled threats of military force violates the fundamental principles of the Western alliance. Trump's confusion of sovereignty with availability reflects a basic misunderstanding of the rules-based international order.
Outlook and scenarios
A reasonable solution would involve enhanced cooperation in the Arctic within the framework of NATO, respecting Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic autonomy. The European deployment could evolve into a permanent military presence that responds to legitimate security concerns without violating international law. Denmark has signalled its willingness to engage in dialogue, but not to sell. Trump will have to choose between fruitless confrontation with allies or constructive cooperation that would genuinely improve Arctic security.
Media rack
US press
The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal: Extensive coverage of Trump's message to Norway linking Greenland to the Nobel Prize. Critical analysis of the impact on transatlantic relations. WSJ highlights the economic implications of a trade war with allies.
CNN, Fox News, CBS, CNBC: Live coverage from Davos with a focus on Trump-Europe tensions. Fox remains favourable to Trump; CNN and CBS more critical. CNBC emphasises economic risks of tariffs.
Politico, The Hill: Analysis of divisions in Congress over policy towards Greenland. Republican senators such as Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski criticise tariffs on allies.
British press
The Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian: The Sunday Times with an exclusive on 16,500-18,000 deaths in Iran. Coverage of Starmer's position attempting to balance relations with Trump and European solidarity. Guardian critical of British ambiguity.
BBC: Extensive coverage of the Erfan Soltani case in Iran and threats of execution. Follow-up on Iranian internet blackout and documentation of abuses.
Financial Times: Economic analysis of the implications of tariffs for European markets. Guides for executives in Davos.
Continental European press
Le Monde, Le Figaro, Libération: Macron calls Trump's threats ‘unacceptable’.
Libération particularly critical. Le Figaro analyses French response options.
FAZ, Die Welt, Die Zeit: German concern about impact on exports. Die Welt highlights comments by Chancellor Merz. Analysis of German position between Atlanticism and defence of European interests.
Corriere della Sera: Meloni's position attempting to mediate between Trump and the EU. Italy seeks to avoid escalation.
Russian press
RT, TASS: Celebration of transatlantic division. Dmitriev: ‘Transatlantic unity is over.’ Favourable coverage of Putin's invitation to the Board of Peace. Minimisation of casualties in Ukraine and emphasis on Russian military ‘successes.’
Asian press
China Daily, South China Morning Post: Defence of China's position in the face of tariff threats over trade with Iran.
Emphasis on record trade surplus as proof of economic resilience. SCMP more balanced than China Daily.
Times of India, Hindustan Times: Coverage of Modi's absence from Davos. Analysis of implications of US-Europe tensions for India.
WION: Extensive coverage of protests in Iran and massacre of demonstrators. South Asian perspective on crisis.
Arab and Israeli press
Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya: Al Jazeera with extensive fact-checking of phase one of the ceasefire in Gaza: 451 Palestinians killed, 1,193 Israeli violations. Critical analysis of phase two announcement. Al Arabiya more balanced.
Jerusalem Post, Haaretz: JP with government line on compliance with ceasefire. Haaretz more critical of Israeli conduct.
Ukrainian press
Ukrinform, Kyiv Independent, Kyiv Post: Detailed updates from the front. 144 clashes, 8,156 drones. Coverage of negotiations in Miami and expectations for Davos. Concern about US security guarantees.
International agencies
Reuters, AFP, AP, DPA: Factual coverage of developments in Greenland, Davos, Iran and Ukraine. Reuters with figure of 5,000+ dead in Iran, citing official Iranian source. AP with details of demonstrations in Nuuk.
Editorial commentary: The whim of a Caesar and the blood of a people
There are days that encapsulate the contradictions of an era, and this is one of them. While the world's powerful gather in Davos under the optimistic slogan of ‘The Spirit of Dialogue’, the US president threatens tariffs on his most loyal allies because an independent Norwegian committee did not award him a prize. History will record this moment as one of the most embarrassing in American diplomacy: a world leader publicly confessing that his foreign policy is conditioned by his resentment at not having been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump's tantrum is particularly obscene when contrasted with what is happening simultaneously in Iran. There, thousands of citizens have been massacred for the crime of protesting against inflation and tyranny. While Trump complains about the Nobel Prize, young Iranians are being shot in the head by snipers stationed on rooftops. While the US president confuses the Nobel Committee with the Norwegian government, families in Tehran are desperately searching for the bodies of their children in makeshift morgues.
What is happening in Iran is not just another crackdown: it is a massacre that, according to various sources, has claimed between 5,000 and 18,000 lives. The Tehran regime has once again demonstrated that its only real ideology is the perpetuation of power. The fact that it has imported Iraqi militiamen to shoot at its own people illustrates the transnational nature of this clerical mafia. The protesters, shouting ‘No mullahs, no Shah,’ aspire to a republican democracy, not a restoration of the monarchy. They deserve the West's decisive support, not the usual hesitations.
In Venezuela, the fall of the narco-dictator Maduro is cause for restrained celebration. Celebration, because the Chavista regime was a continental disgrace: a mafia state dedicated to drug trafficking and terrorism. Restrained, because Washington's treatment of the democratic opposition is worrying. Trump's preference for negotiating with Delcy Rodríguez while marginalising María Corina Machado and Edmundo González is worrying. Let us hope that this strategy is intended to ensure a peaceful transition to full democracy and avoid chaos and bloodshed in Venezuela.
The Greenland episode illustrates another disturbing phenomenon: the confusion between legitimate security interests and unacceptable methods. It is true that the Arctic is strategically vital and that Russia and China are increasing their presence in the region. But the appropriate response is enhanced cooperation within NATO, not economic coercion against allies or veiled threats of military force. The Greenlanders, an autonomous people with the right to self-determination, have overwhelmingly expressed their rejection. Eighty-five per cent of them say no to the United States. In a democracy, that should mean something. However, Denmark has done absolutely nothing to prevent Russian and Chinese interference in Greenland, as it is suspected that they may have infiltrated the independence movement, convinced that an independent Greenland could fall under the orbit of China and Russia, a scenario that is more than a nightmare for global security.
Putin's invitation to the ‘Board of Peace’ for Gaza crowns the surrealism of the day. The man responsible for the biggest war of aggression in Europe since Hitler, invited to a peace council. Viktor Orbán, his most loyal European ally, has already accepted. And meanwhile, in Ukraine, the 144 daily battles, the 8,000 drones, and the bombs on frozen cities without electricity continue.
Those of us who believe in liberal democracy, Atlanticism and the rules-based international order find ourselves in an uncomfortable position. We must defend the legitimate security interests of the West while criticising the methods employed. We must celebrate the fall of dictators while lamenting the derailment of transition processes. We must acknowledge that Trump is right in some of his diagnoses while rejecting his prescriptions outright: unilateralism, transnationalism, foreign policy as an extension of personal ego.
Europe, for its part, must wake up. This week's emergency summit will determine whether the Union is capable of acting in unity in the face of coercion. Activating the anti-coercion instrument against the United States would be a historic step, perhaps necessary, certainly painful. The alternative would set a devastating precedent. As Burke wrote, ‘the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing’.
This day leaves us, in short, with more questions than answers. Can the Western alliance survive a US leader who confuses allies with subordinates and awards with foreign policy? Will the Iranian people find the path to freedom or will they be crushed once again? Will Venezuela achieve a genuine transition or simply a change of jailer? Will Ukraine achieve a just peace or will it be sacrificed on the altar of pragmatism? The answers will come with time. In the meantime, our duty is to document, analyse, and never lose our capacity for outrage in the face of injustice.