Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 22 January
Below is an analysis of global current affairs, structured around key topics for clear and direct understanding, followed by a summary of coverage in the mainstream media
- Introduction
- Trump backtracks on military option and tariffs in Greenland case
- ‘Relief’ effect on markets after the turnaround on Greenland and tariffs
- Europe stands up in Davos and accelerates its strategic autonomy
- Japan: export slowdown and doubts about recovery
- Asia-Pacific: fragile stock market rebound and South Korean slowdown
- United Kingdom: rising inflation and pressure on the middle class
- India: a giant caught between geopolitics and its own internal rigidities
- Latent tension in space: alert on Russian-Chinese capabilities
- Bolivia: liberal-conservative political shift in a critical economic context
- Failed negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan and North Korean threats
- Media rack
- Editorial comment
Introduction
Over the last 24 hours, the geopolitical landscape has been dominated by Trump's U-turn on Greenland, the economic impact of that reversal, new macroeconomic data in Asia and Europe, and the consolidation of a European security architecture that is increasingly distrustful of Washington. The focus shifts to the Arctic, the transatlantic relationship and the growing strategic competition between the United States, China and Russia, against a backdrop of global slowdown and financial volatility.
President Trump's announcement that he is explicitly renouncing the use of force to acquire Greenland and withdrawing his threat of new tariffs against several European allies marks a turning point in the open crisis with the European Union and NATO. The decision does not spell the end of his ambitions in the Arctic, but it does represent a tactical rectification forced by the outright resistance of European partners in Davos and by the immediate impact of his threats on financial markets and the price of gold.
From an Atlanticist and liberal centre-right perspective, the day leaves a mixed feeling: relief at the containment of military adventurism and intra-Western trade war, but also concern about the erosion of confidence in US leadership and the parallel advance of China and Russia in the Eurasian space and strategic commodity markets.
Trump backtracks on military option and tariffs in Greenland case
Facts
Trump declared in Davos that he will not resort to the use of force to acquire Greenland and that he is ruling out, for now, the new tariffs announced against several European allies, after weeks of ambiguity and internal pressure in the White House.
The reversal comes after an intense standoff with European leaders who hardened their stance at the Davos Forum, making it clear that the future of Greenland belongs to its inhabitants and Denmark, and warning against any temptation to use coercion.
Implications
The withdrawal of the military threat defuses, for the time being, a scenario of symbolic rupture of the international order based on the prohibition of the acquisition of territories by force, already sufficiently eroded by Russia in Crimea and Ukraine.
By suspending tariffs, Washington avoids an economic war within the Atlantic bloc that would have further weakened Western cohesion vis-à-vis China and Russia, objectively benefiting Beijing and Moscow.
Outlook and scenarios
A phase of quiet negotiations is to be expected, with an emphasis on base agreements, dual-use infrastructure and preferential access to strategic resources in Greenland, rather than formal annexation.
The risk is that the presidential flip-flopping will erode US credibility: European allies will reinforce their plans for strategic autonomy and their own deterrence capabilities, including French and British nuclear capabilities.
‘Relief’ effect on markets after the turnaround on Greenland and tariffs
Facts
Following Trump's rectification, the dollar remained firm and Wall Street posted strong gains, with the Dow Jones gaining nearly 600 points, boosted by the end of the tariff threat.
Gold, which had climbed to a record high of over $4,800 an ounce amid escalating tensions, began to correct partially, reflecting a change in the immediate perception of systemic risk.
Implications
The sequence confirms that ‘Trump’ volatility has become a structural variable in the markets: every threat and every retraction generates sharp movements that reward those who know how to read the president's instincts, not the fundamentals.
In the medium term, this rollercoaster of announcements and denials undermines the perception of the United States as an anchor of stability in the international financial system and fuels the temptation to diversify into other currencies and financial centres, including China.
Outlook and scenarios
If the White House maintains a more predictable line in its relationship with Europe, the markets could consolidate a phase of ‘risk on’, but any new shock – whether related to technology, defence or digital taxation – will reactivate the defensive drive towards gold and safe-haven assets.
The episode reinforces the need for coordinated Western economic governance: the EU should take advantage of this window of opportunity to propose clear transatlantic rules of the game that limit the discretionary scope for future tariff escalations.
Europe stands up in Davos and accelerates its strategic autonomy
Facts
In Davos, European leaders showed unusually firm opposition to US threats over Greenland and tariffs, and are already discussing ways to strengthen their security without relying exclusively on Washington's umbrella.
There are growing calls to prioritise the purchase of European military equipment, strengthen Europe's own nuclear deterrence capabilities and explore forms of defence cooperation outside the strict logic of NATO.
Implications
Classic Atlanticism is undergoing a phase of revision: without abandoning the alliance, several European capitals are preparing for a scenario in which the United States is a less predictable and more transactional partner, especially under the current occupant of the White House.
From a pro-European perspective, this is an opportunity to build a credible European defence that complements NATO and corrects years of ‘strategic parasitism’, but the risk is that it will result in inefficient duplication and anti-American rhetoric.
Outlook and scenarios
In the short term, the priority will be to strengthen coordination within NATO, taking advantage of Secretary General Rutte's presence in Davos to articulate a common language that combines firmness and pragmatism with Washington.
In the long term, a more autonomous Europe may emerge in defence, but also one that is more internally divided between those who support deepening relations with the United States and those who dream of an impossible equidistance between Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
Japan: export slowdown and doubts about recovery
Facts
Japanese exports grew by 5.1% in December, below the expected 6.1%, weighed down mainly by a sharp drop in shipments to the United States.
This slowdown comes on top of several quarters of weak growth in the Asia-Pacific region, against a backdrop of cooling global demand and the readjustment of value chains after years of trade tensions and the pandemic.
Implications
The data reveals the vulnerability of Japan – and by extension much of Asia – to a slowdown in US consumption and regulatory uncertainty surrounding international trade.
The slowdown opens the door to new stimulus measures and complicates the Bank of Japan's monetary normalisation, which in turn fuels criticism of a ‘currency war’ from partners who see the weak yen as an unfair competitive advantage.
Outlook and scenarios
If Washington stabilises its trade policy, Japanese exports could regain traction, but a new protectionist turn would reignite tensions, forcing Tokyo to accelerate its diversification towards Southeast Asia and Europe.
The combination of an ageing population, massive public debt and dependence on external demand will continue to act as a structural brake, consolidating Japan as a leading diplomatic player but one with subdued economic growth.
Asia-Pacific: fragile stock market rebound and South Korean slowdown
Events
Asia-Pacific markets are pointing to a rebound following the easing of the intra-Western trade war, while analysts digest Trump's decision to withdraw threats of European tariffs.
At the same time, South Korea posted 1.5% growth in the fourth quarter, below forecasts, with domestic demand weakening as the effects of fiscal stimulus dissipate.
Implications
The stock market rebound is more a breather than a solid recovery: Asia depends both on Western consumption and on the stability of supply chains, both of which are still under pressure.
The South Korean slowdown confirms that the Asian model of export-oriented, easy credit is beginning to show signs of fatigue, in an environment where China is reorienting its growth inwards and geo-economic fragmentation is becoming structural.
Outlook and scenarios
A scenario of ‘partial decoupling’ between blocs led by the United States and China will force capitals such as Seoul, Tokyo and Singapore to refine their strategic balance, reducing critical dependencies on both giants.
The political risk is that social frustration over the economic slowdown will fuel populism and nationalism in key countries, with a direct impact on territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the Korean peninsula.
United Kingdom: rising inflation and pressure on the middle class
Facts
British inflation rose to 3.4% in December, above the 3.3% forecast, prolonging a period of erosion in the purchasing power of households already reeling from the price shock of recent years.
The data comes against a backdrop of relatively high interest rates and heated debate about the Bank of England's scope to continue tightening without stifling activity.
Implications
Persistent inflation fuels discontent with the political and economic elites, giving oxygen to populist rhetoric on both the right and the left in a country still searching for its post-Brexit place.
Pressure on the middle class reinforces the cultural battle over identity, migration and wokeness, an arena where the ‘law and order’ right and a radicalised left compete to capitalise on frustration, while the political centre finds itself cornered.
Outlook and scenarios
If inflation does not clearly subside in 2026, the UK may enter a phase of chronic political instability, marked by weak governments and short-term agendas.
A shift towards supply-side policies, smart deregulation and selective tax relief could rebuild the social contract, but this requires leadership and clarity that the current British landscape does not guarantee.
India: a giant caught between geopolitics and its own internal rigidities
Facts
India's largest company, with strong exposure to strategic businesses, is caught up in external geopolitical tensions while facing a slowdown in sales in its domestic retail business, which has led several firms to cut their target price.
The case comes as New Delhi attempts to preserve its balance between its partnership with the West, its historical link with Russia and an inevitably competitive relationship with China.
Implications
The episode shows that the ‘India moment’ is not bulletproof: large Indian corporations are vulnerable to both international sanctions and realignments and their own internal inefficiencies.
From a liberal perspective, India needs to accelerate structural reforms – legal certainty, regulatory simplification, infrastructure – if it wants to convert its demographic potential into real economic power.
Outlook and scenarios
If the government takes advantage of the current pressure to deepen pro-market reforms, India can consolidate its position as a partial alternative to China in manufacturing and services; if not, it risks remaining an unfulfilled promise.
The temptation to resort to economic nationalism and anti-Western rhetoric as an escape valve would be a strategic mistake that would only benefit Beijing.
Latent tension in space: alert on Russian-Chinese capabilities
Facts
Security sources in Europe have once again pointed to the increase in Russian and Chinese warfare capabilities in space, including manoeuvres to approach Western satellites and potential interference and espionage capabilities.
At the same time, several governments have announced substantial increases in space defence spending, recognising that orbital communications and navigation infrastructure is now a priority target in any conflict.
Implications
The progressive militarisation of space joins the cyber front as a critical dimension of the new hybrid warfare, where the boundary between peace and conflict is deliberately blurred.
For Europe, which is lagging behind in this area, the challenge is twofold: to invest enough to protect its assets without uncritically following the US technological agenda.
Outlook and scenarios
The emergence of new regulatory frameworks – or at least codes of conduct – that attempt to set ‘red lines’ in space is foreseeable, although the experience with Russia in Ukraine invites scepticism about their enforcement.
In the absence of binding rules, the real deterrent will come from system redundancy, rapid replacement capacity and civil-military integration of the Western space industry.
Bolivia: liberal-conservative political shift in a critical economic context
Facts
Rodrigo Paz has assumed the presidency of Bolivia, promising a model of ‘capitalism for all’ after two decades of social-communist-indigenous hegemony, amid the country's worst economic crisis in 40 years.
The new president is committed to stabilising inflation, restoring relations with the United States and maintaining certain social programmes, although economists doubt the compatibility between fiscal discipline and expansive spending.
Implications
The change in Bolivia is a symbolic setback for the Latin American left-wing populist axis, which is already feeling the strain of its egalitarian promises in the face of a reality of corruption, inefficiency and stagnation.
Paz's success or failure will be closely watched in countries caught between failed Chavista models and a right wing incapable of articulating inclusive reforms; the region needs examples of reformist and socially responsible centre-right politics.
Outlook and scenarios
If Paz manages to stabilise the macroeconomy without dismantling the social safety net, Bolivia could become a laboratory for pragmatic liberalism that combines the market with protection for the vulnerable.
If not, disenchantment could reopen the door to radical populism, something that Chavista narco-authoritarianism and its allies would immediately seek to exploit.
Failed negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan and North Korean threats
Facts
Peace talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul have ended without agreement, with both sides accusing each other of the failure of negotiations aimed at easing border tensions and consolidating a fragile ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the North Korean defence minister has warned of ‘more offensive actions’ following the arrival of a US aircraft carrier in South Korea and new sanctions from Washington, denouncing the joint exercises as preparation for aggression.
Implications
The inability of Islamabad and Kabul to seal a solid pact keeps open a front of instability that fuels regional jihadist terrorism and reinforces the influence of actors such as China and Russia, who are delighted to fill the strategic vacuum.
Pyongyang's threats highlight that the Korean peninsula remains one of the most dangerous powder kegs on the planet, where a miscalculation could trigger a rapid escalation between nuclear powers.
Outlook and scenarios
Without more consistent involvement from the United States and its allies – combining military deterrence with a credible diplomatic approach – the Afghan-Pakistani space will remain a sanctuary for terrorist organisations and a corridor of influence for Tehran and Beijing.
In Korea, the balance between firmness and restraint will remain fragile: any missile test or naval incident will reignite the debate on the need for Tokyo and Seoul to develop their own nuclear capabilities.
Media rack
In the absence of an individualised sweep of the 90 headlines, the predominant trends are grouped by media families around the topics of the day.
US and British generalist press (NYT, Washington Post, WSJ, Financial Times, The Times, The Guardian, USA Today, Politico, The Hill, etc.):
Focus on Trump's rectification on Greenland and tariffs, with editorialists combining relief with criticism of the White House's strategic improvisation.
Attention to market volatility, record gold prices and the risks of a global slowdown, with an emphasis on Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom.
Continental European media (Le Monde, Le Figaro, FAZ, Die Welt, El País, Corriere, La Stampa, etc.):
Interpretation of the Greenland crisis as a symptom of the need for European strategic autonomy, with increasingly critical discourse towards US unpredictability.
Coverage of British inflation and the EU's internal economic challenges, with special attention to pressure on the middle class and rural unrest.
Global television stations and agencies (BBC, CNN, Fox News, CNBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, DPA, etc.):
Breaking news coverage of Trump's climbdown and its immediate effect on stock markets, currencies and commodities, presented as an example of ‘political risk’ in the markets.
Panoramic coverage of tensions in Asia-Pacific, including data from Japan and South Korea and the rebound of regional stock markets.
Geopolitical analysis media and think tanks (Foreign Affairs, The Economist, National Interest, Geopolitical Futures, Stratfor, etc.):
They interpret the Greenland episode as part of a larger struggle for the Arctic, with an emphasis on resources, sea routes and military presence, and the need for a stable governance framework.
They warn about the militarisation of space and the consolidation of multidimensional hybrid warfare (cyber, satellites, disinformation).
Media in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Eastern Europe (SCMP, China Daily, Times of India, Al-Jazeera, Clarín, El Mercurio, Kyiv Independent, Ukrinform, etc.):
From Asia, they highlight regional sensitivity to Western volatility and the need to diversify partners, with a narrative in which China attempts to present itself as a responsible actor in contrast to an erratic America.
In Latin America and the post-Soviet space, attention is divided between the political shift in Bolivia, the processes in Venezuela and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, although today the immediate focus is shifting to Davos and the Arctic.
Editorial comment
The day leaves us with a lesson that is as uncomfortable as it is obvious: the main risk to the Western liberal order no longer comes only from declared enemies – Russian expansionism, Chinese hegemonic ambition, Islamist terrorism – but also from internal fluctuations in US leadership itself. The fact that a project as extravagant as the “acquisition” of Greenland was considered in terms of the use of force, only to be abandoned in an impromptu speech in Davos, speaks volumes about the state of the superpower that for decades was synonymous with predictability and respect for the rules.
From an Atlanticist and liberal centre-right position, Trump's rectification deserves cold but sincere recognition: not all leaders back down in time when they realise they have gone too far. However, relief should not obscure the cumulative erosion of credibility, nor the fact that every improvised turn by Washington is free ammunition for the propaganda of Beijing, Moscow and Tehran, always ready to portray the West as a decadent and incoherent bloc.
Europe, meanwhile, is experiencing a kind of delayed strategic adolescence: it rightly protests against the White House's outbursts, but still fails to equip itself with the military, energy and technological instruments necessary to be a real player and not just a forum for good intentions. If Europeans want to be more than mere spectators in the dispute over the Arctic, space and critical raw materials, they will have to abandon their comfortable rhetorical pacifism and accept that defending liberal democracy costs money, requires sacrifices and demands moral clarity in the face of dictatorships and terrorists.
In this context, Bolivia's shift towards “capitalism for all” offers a hopeful counterpoint in a Latin America weighed down by narco-caudillismo and left-wing populism, and shows that there are still societies willing to give fiscal responsibility and the rule of law another chance. But if reformist governments do not show tangible results in a short time, the pendulum will swing back to the usual demagogues, including the allies of the Chavista narco-regime, with the familiar consequences of misery, exodus and repression.
In the end, the map drawn by these 24 hours is that of a world in which the declared enemies of freedom – revisionist autocracies, religious fanatics, political mafias – advance when the West is distracted by its internal quarrels and forgets why the rule of law, the market economy and liberal democracy are worthwhile. Faced with such a world, restoring a serious, coordinated and morally clear Western foreign policy is not an academic question: it is the minimum condition for Greenland, Ukraine, Taiwan and the Sahel not to become new pieces on a chessboard divided between dictatorships and terrorist organisations.
