Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 9 September
France: Bayrou government falls after losing confidence
The French National Assembly passed a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister François Bayrou with 364 votes in favour and 194 against, forcing his immediate resignation. This comes amid intense budget negotiations for 2026, with a fiscal consolidation plan estimated at around €52 billion pending to reduce the deficit and comply with EU rules on public debt.
Why does it matter?
France, as the eurozone's second-largest economy, now faces a power vacuum that could raise the sovereign risk premium (10-year OAT-Bund spread), complicate compliance with European fiscal targets and trigger early elections if a new government is not formed quickly. This exacerbates instability in a context of low growth, persistent inflation and global geopolitical pressures.
Key insights
- The defeat reflects widespread rejection of unpopular fiscal adjustment, including cuts to pensions and social spending, rather than Bayrou's personal failure. Sources such as Le Monde and the Financial Times highlight how the opposition (from the left to the far right) is capitalising on this to force concessions on the economic agenda.
- In the short term, monitor Macron's appointment of a successor, market reactions (the CAC 40 fell 1.2% post-vote according to Reuters) and the response from Brussels, which could demand guarantees to avoid an excessive deficit procedure. Risk of contagion to Italy or Spain if paralysis persists.
Japan: Shigeru Ishiba resigns after LDP's defeat
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered an electoral defeat, losing its absolute majority in both the lower and upper houses. Candidates such as Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi and Yoshihide Hayashi are emerging in the internal succession, with a party congress scheduled shortly.
Why does it matter?
In an Indo-Pacific region tense due to China and North Korea, uncertainty affects key policies such as tax increases to finance defence, reindustrialisation and QUAD/AUKUS alliances. The yen depreciated by 0.8% (according to Bloomberg), and the Tokyo Stock Exchange recorded volatility, reflecting fears of less disciplined policies.
Key analytics
The resignation does not resolve underlying scandals (corruption in party funds) or demographic ageing; sources such as The Japan Times and Nikkei Asia point out that the new leader must balance domestic growth with security commitments, avoiding legislative paralysis.
Key signals: The fiscal tone of the successor (primary surplus target) and alliances with Komeito. Analytically, this could strengthen opponents such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, but without extremism, focusing on balanced economic reforms.
Tough on terrorism: Any Japanese weakness could embolden actors such as Iran or its proxies in Asia, although Japan prioritises non-aggressive deterrence.
Gaza: demolition of towers and US draft ceasefire
Israeli forces demolished several residential towers in Gaza City, citing their use by Hamas for terrorist operations. At the same time, the US presented a draft agreement: the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for some 3,000 Palestinian prisoners, plus an initial six-week truce with the option of extension. Hamas expressed ‘openness’ but demands a complete end to hostilities.
Why does it matter?
This maximum trade-off seeks to de-escalate a conflict that has caused thousands of civilian deaths and a humanitarian crisis, with famine imminent according to the UN. If it fails, Israel threatens a full ground invasion, raising the risks of regional escalation involving Hezbollah or Iran. Sources such as AP and BBC confirm the diplomatic urgency in the face of electoral pressure in the US.
Key insights
- The demolition underscores Israel's strategy of degrading the terrorist infrastructure of Hamas, a group designated as terrorist by the US and EU; Al Jazeera reports civilian casualties, but balanced: Hamas uses human shields, exacerbating innocent victims.
- Narrow window: Third-party verification (Egypt/Qatar) is key; failure could harden positions, with Israel prioritising security over international criticism. Tough on terrorism: Iran-backed Hamas must be dismantled for lasting peace, avoiding concessions that strengthen extremism.
Contagion: Monitor reactions in the West Bank and Lebanon, where Hezbollah is threatening.
Spain–Israel: the nine measures and international criticism (in expanded focus)
Pedro Sánchez's Spanish government announced nine measures against Israel: a total arms embargo, a ban on ships and aircraft carrying Israeli weapons in Spanish ports and airspace, a blockade on ships carrying military fuel, a ban on imports of goods from settlements, visa restrictions for Israelis involved in alleged crimes, cut consular services for Spaniards in settlements, increase funding to UNRWA, greater cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, and recall of the ambassador in Tel Aviv after mutual accusations.
Why does it matter?
This positions Spain as a leader in Europe in pressuring Israel, potentially inspiring others (Ireland, Belgium), but strains bilateral relations and divides the EU. Limited practical impact (modest bilateral trade), but symbolic in forums such as the UN, where Spain promotes Palestinian recognition.
Harshest critical reaction (representative sample, from respected sources)
- Times of Israel: Describes the measures as ‘anti-Semitic unilateral sanctions’, highlighting the logistical veto as “hostile” and quoting Israeli Foreign Minister Katz accusing Sánchez of ‘indirectly supporting Hamas’ (article dated 09/09/2025).
- Jerusalem Post: Emphasises the ‘irreparable damage’ to diplomatic ties, framed as alignment with ‘anti-Israeli agendas’; highlights the ban on Spanish ministers entering the country and possible reciprocity in the EU (main homepage coverage).
- Haaretz: Criticises the escalating rhetoric, with an editorial calling the measures ‘populist’ and ignoring the complexities of Israeli security; source: analysis by Amos Harel, warning of Spanish isolation in the West.
- Israel Hayom: Accuses Sánchez of using the package as a ‘distraction from domestic scandals,’ labelling it ‘modern anti-Semitism’ aligned with the extreme left; quotes experts on bilateralism predicting economic losses for Spain.
- Reuters and Washington Post: Report Israel's labelling of the package as ‘anti-Semitic’, detailing pending ratification in courts; reasonably balanced coverage but notes impact on Spain's image as an ‘unreliable ally’ (citing anonymous diplomats). Less critical readings: Al Jazeera frames it as a ‘step against genocide’, El País as a ‘defence of human rights’. Foreign Affairs (recent article) sees risks of EU fragmentation.
Geopolitical assessment
The measures respond to domestic pressures seeking to attract the hard left, but ignore terrorist threats from Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran, potentially weakening Israeli deterrence.
Tough on terrorism: Spain should focus on condemning Hamas without unilateralism that benefits extremists. Signals: Adoption by other EU countries (unlikely, FT) and Israeli response (possible trade countermeasures).
Ukraine: largest air strike since 2022 and symbolic blow in Kyiv
Russia carried out its largest air strike since the start of the invasion, with more than 200 missiles and drones hitting energy infrastructure and a government building in Kyiv, overwhelming Ukrainian AA defences. Civilian deaths reported in several regions.
Why does it matter?
It demonstrates Russian resilience despite sanctions, eroding Ukrainian morale and complicating winter energy supplies. Kyiv is urging for more Patriot systems and missiles; sources such as Ukrinform and Reuters confirm the pattern of almost daily attacks.
Key insights
- Moscow seeks to weaken political leadership and the economy, as well as consolidate its territorial gains.
- According to Die Welt and The Economist, this Russian strategy forces the West to prioritise containing the Authoritarian International AA, which is supporting this Russian strategy.
- In the medium term, risk of escalation if Ukraine enters Russian territory.
Tough on terrorism: Although not directly, Iranian proxies supply drones, highlighting the need to pressure Tehran.
Indonesia: Sri Mulyani's dismissal and pro-growth shift unsettles markets
President Prabowo Subianto dismissed Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, replacing her with Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, former governor of the central bank. The rupee fell 1.5% and sovereign bonds depreciated (Bloomberg).
Why does it matter?
As an emerging ASEAN power, losing Mulyani's fiscal credibility (praised by the IMF) could inflate deficits, raise debt costs and deter FDI in infrastructure. Shift to ‘aggressive growth’ includes expanded subsidies.
Key analytics
- 2026 deficit target (currently 2.5% of GDP) and ratings (Moody's Baa2); Straits Times and FT warn of inflationary risks if discipline is relaxed.
Thailand: Supreme Court orders prison for Thaksin Shinawatra
The Thai Supreme Court revoked Thaksin Shinawatra's medical benefits, ordering him to serve one year in prison for corruption. This nullifies time ‘served’ in hospital, impacting the influential Shinawatra clan.
Why does it matter?
It rebalances power between populists (Pheu Thai) and military/judicial elites, risking protests and instability in an economy dependent on tourism and exports.
Key insights
- Pheu Thai reaction and possible amnesties; Bangkok Post and Reuters see risk of polarisation, but opportunity for balanced judicial reforms.
Tough on terrorism: Directly irrelevant, but regional stability prevents vacuums exploited by groups such as the Houthis on maritime routes.
Media mosaic
Washington Post / Reuters / AFP / AP / DPA / Politico / The Hill / USA Today / CBS / CNBC: Factual backbone coverage in France (Bayrou's fall as EU fiscal crisis), Japan (LDP succession with yen risks), Gaza (US plan vs. demolitions, tough on Hamas as terrorists), Spain-Israel (measures as polarising diplomacy), Ukraine (air strike as Russian escalation), Indonesia (ministerial change as market alert), Thailand (Thaksin's imprisonment as political judicialisation).
Le Monde / Le Figaro / Libération / France Info / LCI / BFM / La Tribune de Geneve / Le Orient Le Jour: European emphasis on French paralysis (debt/OAT risks), with analysis of contagion; harsh criticism of Spain from pro-Israel angles in Figaro; Ukraine as AA priority.
The Times (London) / The Telegraph / The Guardian / BBC / The Economist / Financial Times / Die Zeit / FAZ / Die Welt: Focus on French/Japanese instability; Guardian and Economist balanced on Gaza/Spain, condemning Hamas but noting humanitarian costs; Ukraine as Western erosion.
WSJ / NYT / CNN / Fox News / Washington Times / The Daily Beast / Newsweek: US-centric: Gaza (Biden plan as lifeline), Spain (Israeli criticism as anti-Semitism); Fox and Washington Times tough on Hamas/Iran; Ukraine as needing more aid.
Corriere della Sera / L'Osservatore Romano / Helsingin Sanomat / Gazeta Wyborcza: Eastern/Italian EU perspective on Ukraine (attack as existential threat); neutral on France.
Al-Jazeera / Al-Arabia / Al-Quds Al Arabi / Peninsula Qatar / Arab News / Asharq Al-Awsat / Al Riyadh / Saudi Gazette / Gulf News UAE / Khaleej Times / Gulf Today / Al-Ittihad / Times of Oman / Jordan Times / Al Rai Jordan / Daily Star / An-Nahar / Al-Hayat Al Jadida / Al Ayyam / Felestin: Strong in Gaza (demolitions as aggression, US plan as insufficient) and Spain (measures as anti-genocide); Al-Arabia balanced, tough on Hamas/Hezbollah as destabilisers.
Yedioth Ahronoth / Israel Hayom / Jerusalem Post / Haaretz / Maariv / Times of Israel (assuming Jerusalem Times similar): Fierce criticism of Spain (anti-Semitism, alignment with terror); Gaza as defence vs. Hamas.
Russia Today / TASS / Vesti / Fakty et Kommentarii: Pro-Russian in Ukraine (attack as defensive response); neutral in France/Japan.
South China Morning Post / China Daily / Straits Times / WION / Times of India / Hindustan Times / Indian Express / Yomiuri Shimbun / Japan Times (Tokyo Times) / The National Interest / Foreign Affairs: Asia-centric: Japan (succession as regional uncertainty), Indonesia/Thailand (ASEAN stability); Gaza/Ukraine with neutrality, tough on Iran/Houthis.
France: Bayrou government falls after losing confidence
Japan: Shigeru Ishiba resigns after LDP's defeat
Gaza: demolition of towers and US draft ceasefire
Spain–Israel: the nine measures and international criticism (in expanded focus)
Ukraine: largest air strike since 2022 and symbolic blow in Kyiv
Indonesia: Sri Mulyani's dismissal and pro-growth shift unsettles markets
Thailand: Supreme Court orders prison for Thaksin Shinawatra