Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 10 September
Israel – Blow to Hamas leadership in Doha (Qatar)
What happened?
Several explosions rocked Doha following a precision Israeli strike against Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) targets, with Khalil al-Hayya among the leaders identified by Israeli sources. Qatar denounced a ‘flagrant violation of international law’; the United States (US) expressed concern about the escalation. Coverage by Reuters, AP (Associated Press), ABC News and Fox News confirms the attack and the survival of the main leadership according to Hamas' version.
Why does it matter?
The strike takes the conflict out of Gaza and undermines Qatar's mediating role, a central piece in the contacts for a ceasefire and hostage exchange. It is an extraterritorial escalation with the potential to reconfigure balances in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and strain the US-Israel-Gulf monarchies relationship.
Signs (72 hours)
- Coordinated condemnation by Arab capitals and calls for an international investigation
- Security reinforcement in Doha and tightening of anti-terrorism frameworks to shield mediation
- Washington attempts to preserve the Qatari channel without endorsing extraterritorial operations
Risks
- Reprisals by Hamas-allied networks in third countries
- Possible erosion of Qatar's extremely important mediating role (a vacuum that Egypt and Turkey are attempting to fill by making opportunistic advances).
- A new red line shattered: the normalisation of Israeli surgical operations in the territories of mediating countries and, above all, Western allies.
Key facts
- The US has its most important military base in the Middle East in Qatar, the Al Udeid base with more than 10,000 troops. This is the first time that Israel has attacked the territory of a state declared a strategic ally of the US.
- President Donald Trump has expressed his deep irritation at the Netanyahu government's action and has rejected, even condemned, the Israeli attack on Qatari territory.
- Testimonies and images place explosions in the Legtifiya area of the capital; Qatar and Saudi Arabia issue immediate condemnations.
What to watch
US red lines on operations outside the theatre; whether Egypt/Turkey will complement mediation; collateral impacts on energy, aviation and insurance in the Gulf.
France – Emmanuel Macron appoints Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister after François Bayrou's censure
What happened?
After a motion of no confidence passed in the National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu (39) — until now Minister of Defence — as Prime Minister to save the budget in a fragmented Parliament. Media reports point to imminent protests and fierce parliamentary opposition.
Why does it matter?
France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone (EZ), is systemic: instability widens the OAT-Bund spread and hinders the European defence agenda in the midst of the war in Ukraine. Lecornu symbolises continuity in the 2024-2030 defence shift and the pro-business agenda.
Signs (2 weeks)
- Opposition call to ‘block everything’ and national march;
- Variable geometry with LR (Les Républicains) and centrists for the accounts;
- Debate on deficit under scrutiny by the ECB (European Central Bank) and Brussels.
Risks
- Budget failure → early elections;
- Deterioration of fiscal credibility and risk premium if the plan fails to convince markets and institutions.
Key fact
The appointment comes on the eve of a major national protest; Lecornu was the architect of the Military Programming Law (≈ €413 billion until 2030).
What to watch
Brussels' response to the fiscal picture and ECB signals on peripheral spreads.
Nepal – K. P. Sharma Oli resigns: Parliament set on fire and Gen-Z anti-corruption protests
What happened?
Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli resigned after anti-corruption protests led by Generation Z, with 19 dead, a curfew and Parliament set on fire. The social media ban was lifted, but the protests continued; Kathmandu airport was temporarily closed.
Why does it matter?
Nepal, sandwiched between India and China, is a corridor for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); the chaotic transition opens the door to interference from neighbouring powers and the risk of militarisation of public order. Despite being a weak state with incompetent governments, lacking resources and infrastructure, and rife with corruption, Nepal is key to regional stability and acts as a buffer between China and India.
Signs (10 days)
- Interim cabinet and anti-corruption reform timetable
- Steps taken by New Delhi and Beijing to ‘ensure stability’ (border security, debt)
- Gradual reopening of critical infrastructure and services
Risks
- Security drift. Nepal has in fact been a failed state practically since the fall of the monarchy.
- Fragmentation of coalitions; risk of a far-left communist government being replaced by even more radical Maoist sectors.
- Humanitarian crisis if shortages continue. Nepal lacks the means, infrastructure, management capacity or administration with the minimum competence to deal with any kind of humanitarian crisis.
Key fact
The network ban was the trigger, but systemic corruption fuelled the protests even after the measure was lifted.
What to watch
Whether a consensus technocrat or a coalition of convenience with military oversight emerges.
Ukraine – Massacre in Yarová (Donetsk) and new wave of Russian drones/missiles
What happened?
A glide bomb attack in Yarová (Donetsk) killed 24 civilians, mostly pensioners waiting to collect their pensions; 19 were injured. At the same time, waves of drones and missiles hit several regions. Volodymyr Zelensky called for an immediate global response.
Why does it matter?
Moscow is intensifying its punishment of the civilian rear to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences and erode morale; Kyiv is accelerating domestic production of ammunition/drones and calling for additional anti-aircraft systems.
Signs (30 days)
- New air defence packages from the US and European partners
- Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics (fuel depots, railway hubs)
- Debate in the EU (European Union) on a new sanctions package
Risks
- Normalisation, generalisation and a certain international indifference to the massive damage to Ukrainian civilians caused by Russian attacks.
- Serious fatigue in international support if there is no progress. In fact, there are already worrying signs of weariness in certain public opinions, even in countries most favourable to supporting Ukraine.
- Possible escalation with ballistic missiles if Russia perceives vulnerabilities in the coalition supporting Ukraine.
Key fact
- 24 dead and 19 wounded, confirmed by Ukrainian authorities and international media.
- What to watch. Interception rates (> 85% at peaks) and replenishment of medium-range SAM (surface-to-air missile) missiles.
United States – SCOTUS (Supreme Court) to decide whether IEEPA covers global tariffs
What happened?
The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) agreed to fast-track the case that will determine whether the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) allows for generalised tariffs. A federal judge had already overturned them in part; now the Supreme Court will decide on the actual scope of presidential power.
Why does it matter?
It is a constitutional test with an impact on supply chains, directly affecting inflation and indirect tax collection (price increases can lead to a drop in consumption). A restrictive ruling would force the Trump administration to seek alternative legislative routes. A court ruling in favour of the administration and its tariffs would mean the normalisation of international trade coercion as a foreign policy tool.
Signs (until November)
- Importers preparing legal claims for tariff payments that may have been cancelled, if the court ruling is contrary to the Administration.
- Redoubled campaigns by sectoral lobbies in favour of free trade.
- The Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce are studying transitional measures as a preventive measure.
Risks (scenarios)
- Scotus overturns tariffs → contractual uncertainty and price volatility;
- Scotus upholds tariffs → carte blanche for expansive tariffs (including geopolitical, punitive and secondary punitive tariffs) in future crises.
Key fact
Hearing scheduled for November 2025 (accelerated timetable).
What to watch
Signals from the G-7 (Group of Seven) on tariff coordination and reactions from China and the EU.
Thailand – Supreme Court orders Thaksin Shinawatra to be imprisoned for 1 year; blow to the ‘clan’
What happened?
The Supreme Court ruled that Thaksin Shinawatra's VIP hospital stay does not count as a sentence and ordered him to serve one year in prison. The former prime minister is complying with the verdict. This comes after the removal of his daughter Paetongtarn as head of government and the promotion of Anutin Charnvirakul.
Why does it matter?
It signals a rebalancing in favour of the military-royalist bloc and a symbolic blow to Pheu Thai. Risk of prolonged polarisation with effects on investment and tourism.
Signs (14 days)
- Containment of protests in Bangkok
- Repositioning of Pheu Thai
- Search for macro stability by the new cabinet
Risks
- Constitutional engineering
- Litigation in related corruption cases
- Pressure on the baht and the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand)
Key fact
From 8 years commuted to 1 by royal decree, now effective imprisonment after review of his case.
What to watch
Reaction of the Privy Council and the military; signals in the foreign exchange and stock markets.
Bonus Monitor – Climate/maritime safety: the A23A mega-berg is rapidly disintegrating
Why does it matter?
A23A, one of the largest icebergs ever recorded, is rapidly fragmenting near South Georgia: risks to navigation and a sign of warmer waters facilitating glacial discharge (does not raise sea levels on its own, but alters ocean dynamics).
Media rack of analysed news
Bloomberg / The Pulse — ‘Trump Floats New China, India Tariffs Over Russia’
Focus: The United States and its strategy to pressure Putin via tariffs on India and China
Highlights:
- Trump proposes broad tariffs on India and China as leverage to influence Putin
- Reinforces the narrative of trade escalation as a geopolitical tool
Economic Times / ANI — ‘Expert: Trump miscalculated leverage over India with tariffs’
Focus: Internal geopolitical criticism of the US tariff strategy
Highlights:
- Expert David Goldwyn questions the effectiveness of sanctions against India
- Denounces a hypocritical policy: harsh sanctions against India, suspension for China
Reuters (via Indian Express) — ‘India explores rare earths deal with Myanmar after Chinese restriction’
Focus: Strategic alliances in the technology and energy sectors
Highlights:
- India seeks to secure rare earth supplies for electric cars and advanced industry
- The agreement shows how competition with China is driving supplier diversification.
Reuters — ‘Asia stocks gain... traders consider odds of bigger Fed cut’
Focus: Financial reaction to geopolitical tensions and monetary policy
Highlights:
- Asian indices rise amid expectations of Fed rate cut
- Geopolitical risks, such as Russian drones in Poland or an Israeli attack on Qatar, weigh on markets
Washington Post — ‘Israeli strike in Qatar, Trump signature scrutiny, Russian drone activity escalate tensions’
Focus: Diversified geopolitical landscape with focus on Middle East and Western tensions
Highlights:
- Combines multiple fronts: Israeli attack on Qatar, legal scrutiny of Trump and increased Russian drone activity in Europe
- Reflects a global environment affected by multiple sources of insecurity
- InvestingLive (Asia-Pacific FX news) — ‘Russian drone incursions into Poland jolted geopolitics’
- Focus: Immediate geopolitical impact on currency markets and Asia
Highlights:
- Although markets remained stable, Russian intrusion heightened regional risk perception
- Links event in Poland to volatility in Asia-Pacific
Key observations:
- The US and tariffs as a geopolitical tool: Bloomberg and ANI highlight the tension between strategic intent and perceived weakness in execution
- India's strategic shift: The agreement with Myanmar shows a practical response to Chinese pressure
- Global financial volatility: Reuters and InvestingLive link geopolitical events to market responses, especially in Asia
- Multiple sources of tension: Washington Post highlights a complex global front, from the Middle East to Europe
- Israel – Blow to Hamas leadership in Doha (Qatar)
- France – Emmanuel Macron appoints Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister after François Bayrou's censure
- Nepal – K. P. Sharma Oli resigns: Parliament set on fire and Gen-Z anti-corruption protests
- Ukraine – Massacre in Yarová (Donetsk) and new wave of Russian drones/missiles
- United States – SCOTUS (Supreme Court) to decide whether IEEPA covers global tariffs
- Thailand – Supreme Court orders Thaksin Shinawatra to be imprisoned for 1 year; blow to the ‘clan’
- Bonus Monitor – Climate/maritime safety: the A23A mega-berg is rapidly disintegrating
- Media rack of analysed news
- Bloomberg / The Pulse — ‘Trump Floats New China, India Tariffs Over Russia’
- Economic Times / ANI — ‘Expert: Trump miscalculated leverage over India with tariffs’
- Reuters (via Indian Express) — ‘India explores rare earths deal with Myanmar after Chinese restriction’
- Reuters — ‘Asia stocks gain... traders consider odds of bigger Fed cut’
- Washington Post — ‘Israeli strike in Qatar, Trump signature scrutiny, Russian drone activity escalate tensions’
- Bloomberg / The Pulse — ‘Trump Floats New China, India Tariffs Over Russia’