Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis for 1 September
- The Eurasian axis consolidates at the SCO summit
- Gaza and Palestine: diplomatic turning point and rising tensions
- Ukraine: War of attrition and pressure to negotiate
- Global trade: uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs
- Energy: tactical stability and geopolitical vulnerability
- Indo-Pacific: increased tensions around Taiwan
- Venezuela: isolation and pressure on the ‘narco-dictatorship’
- Summary of international coverage
The Eurasian axis consolidates at the SCO summit
Main event: In Tianjin, China, Xi Jinping chaired the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, hosting more than 20 leaders, including Vladimir Putin of Russia and Narendra Modi of India. The aim is to strengthen this bloc so that it can counterbalance NATO.
Context and actors: Modi's presence is a direct message to the Trump administration about India's strategic autonomy in a multipolar world. The participation of countries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia as observers suggests a possible expansion of the alliance.
Analysis and implications: The summit accelerates the reconfiguration towards a multipolar order, consolidating a Beijing-Moscow bloc with nods to Delhi. The emphasis on ‘shared responsibility’ and economic cooperation directly challenges US influence in Asia and complicates NATO's strategies in both Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific.
Gaza and Palestine: diplomatic turning point and rising tensions
Main event: In September, France will lead the recognition of the Palestinian state at the UN, in a coordinated effort with key allies such as the UK, Canada, Spain, Ireland and Norway.
Context and actors: Washington and Israel's response has been categorical, with visas denied to Mahmoud Abbas and 80 Palestinian leaders. At the same time, the Global Sumud Flotilla, a humanitarian initiative involving activists such as Greta Thunberg, left Barcelona in an attempt to break the blockade of Gaza. Israel responded by stepping up its military operations against the terrorist group Hamas, which uses the civilian population as human shields.
Analysis and implications: This European diplomatic move increases the political and reputational cost for Israel, causing a rift in the transatlantic alliance. In the long term, legal pressure on Israel is intensifying in international forums, without exonerating the destabilising role of Hamas and its sponsors, such as Iran.
Ukraine: War of attrition and pressure to negotiate
Main event: Russia intensifies its bombing campaign on Kyiv, while Ukraine retaliates with drone attacks on Russian refineries. The White House has set deadlines for a Putin-Zelensky summit, combining sanctions and security guarantees.
Context and actors: German Foreign Minister Friedrich Merz anticipates a prolonged conflict, stating that ‘wars usually end with negotiations after a long time.’ Meanwhile, Hungary continues to block progress in Ukraine's EU accession negotiations, exacerbating internal divisions within the bloc.
Analysis and implications: The conflict is entering a phase of attrition. Merz's warning reflects the reality on the ground, while US pressure for a quick negotiation is at odds with the Kremlin's strategy. There is a real risk of escalation in the autumn if the diplomatic route fails.
Global trade: uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs
Major event: a US federal appeals court has ruled that most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal, but they remain in effect until the Supreme Court rules on the matter.
Context and players: India is one of the countries most affected, with 50% tariffs on two-thirds of its main exports (textiles, jewellery). Its Trade Minister has stated that ‘we will not give in to the United States’.
Analysis and implications: The court ruling is causing considerable uncertainty. If upheld, it will lead to an overall rebalancing of customs duties. If overturned, it could trigger a new wave of protectionism that would affect not only rivals but also key allies such as the European Union and Japan, further straining supply chains.
Energy: tactical stability and geopolitical vulnerability
Key event: The price of Brent crude remains stable at around $68 per barrel, with forecasts of a surplus and a possible decline to $58-60 in 2025-2026 due to increased production by non-OPEC+ countries.
Context and players: OPEC+ is monitoring the market to avoid oversupply that would cause prices to fall.
Analysis and implications: This stability offers respite from inflationary pressures and gives central banks room for manoeuvre. However, this trend is vulnerable and could quickly reverse in the event of military escalation in Ukraine or new geopolitical tensions.
Indo-Pacific: increased tensions around Taiwan
Major event: US Senator Roger Wicker visited Taipei to discuss the co-production of weapons (including drones) between the US and Taiwan.
Context and actors: Beijing protested strongly by organising naval exercises in the region. The Philippines activated contingency plans in case of a possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and new incidents with China were reported in the South China Sea.
Analysis and implications: Washington's decision alarms Beijing and increases the risk of regional escalation. Direct military collaboration between the United States and Taiwan is a red line for China.
Venezuela: isolation and pressure on the ‘narco-dictatorship’
Main event: The US and EU have tightened sanctions against Nicolás Maduro's regime after the fraudulent elections, notably by designating the ‘Tren de Aragua’ cartel and senior officials.
Context and actors: Internal opposition continues to exert pressure, but the humanitarian crisis is worsening.
Analysis and implications: Maduro is digging in his heels in the face of Western isolation, but the sanctions are aimed at forcing the regime to open up or collapse. It is possible that the SCO bloc, through China and Russia, will attempt to counter the blockade.
Summary of international coverage
Reuters/AP: Focus on the long war in Ukraine (Merz), the recognition of Palestine (France) and the Gaza flotilla (Thunberg).
WSJ/Financial Times: Analysis of the diplomatic clash between Paris and Washington over Palestine, the Pentagon's doubts about the use of missiles in Ukraine and the stability of Brent crude.
European media (The Guardian, The Times, Le Monde, FAZ): Extensive coverage of Putin's visit to China, criticism of Israel over Gaza and the debate on German rearmament.
American media (CNN, CBS, FOX News): The court ruling against tariffs and the White House's reaction dominate economic coverage.
Asian media (SCMP, Japan Times, Times of India): focus on the SCO summit as a message of ‘stability’, Wicker's visit to Taiwan and the impact of tariffs on India.
Al-Jazeera/Arab media: Focus on the humanitarian flotilla, recognition of Palestine and criticism of Israel.
Russian and Chinese media (TASS, RT, China Daily): official discourse presenting the SCO summit as a diplomatic success for peace and stability.
Ukrainian media (Kyiv Independent): reporting on bombing victims, attacks on Russian refineries and Hungary's blockade within the EU.
