Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 1, 2 and 3 November 2025

1. Knife attack on train to London
2. Obama gets involved in the campaign in favour of Mamdani
3. Judicial setback for the White House: federal judge overturns documentary proof of citizenship requirement to vote
4. Canada apologises for anti-tariff Reagan ad: Carney tries to mend fences with Trump
5. Nigeria in Washington's crosshairs for attacks on Christians: designation on list and warning of possible sanctions
6. Serbia: crowds gather in Novi Sad one year after the station collapse
7. USA: Government shutdown enters second month, eroding critical functions
8. Berkshire Hathaway: final transition to Greg Abel and cash conservatism on the eve of the handover
9. Security Council Resolution: Western Sahara, a diplomatic victory for Morocco and a defeat for Algerian adventurism
10. The monumental absurdity of the ‘historical apology’: Albares and the national complex in the face of the black legend
11. Media rack (selection by headlines)
12. Editorial commentary on the two news items with the greatest impact in Spain

Knife attack on train to London

Facts:

A 32-year-old man stabbed several passengers on a train travelling between Doncaster and London (stopping at Huntingdon). More than a dozen people were injured, several critically. British Transport Police arrested the suspect and released a second person arrested without charge. The counter-terrorism unit assisted in the investigation, but the police have ruled out a jihadist motive for the time being; it is being investigated as an attack by a ‘lone wolf’ with no proven terrorist motivation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the events as ‘deeply concerning’.

Implications:

The UK is reviving the debate on rail safety, mental health and the classification of domestic terrorism. The fact that Counter Terrorism Policing was initially involved and then ruled out a terrorist motive underscores a doctrine of ‘active caution’: investigate as if it were terrorism, but only communicate when there is evidence. It will force security audits on intercity lines and staff reinforcements at key stations, without—for the moment—leading to a tightening of security measures.

It is striking that the jihadist inspiration for the attack is denied and the attacker is described as a ‘lone wolf’, which is the term given to self-radicalised jihadists or those sent as cannon fodder to provoke terror. In this case, excessive caution is a serious irresponsibility on the part of the British authorities. Unfortunately, incidents of this kind will ultimately require new security measures, even on regional and commuter trains.

Obama gets involved in the campaign in favour of Mamdani

Facts:

Barack Obama telephoned Zohran Mamdani — who is leading the polls in the upcoming New York mayoral election — to praise his campaign and offer himself as a ‘sounding board’ (advisor) if he wins. The news, reported by US media and confirmed by sources close to the campaign, comes after months of tension between moderates and the hard left of the Democratic Party over the rise of the anti-capitalist, pro-communist and self-proclaimed socialist candidate.

Implications:

Obama's intervention — who theoretically belongs to the more institutional wing of his party — is a symbolic endorsement that, however, does not close the gap between the Democratic mainstream and the socialist wing. In swing states, Republicans will exploit the rise of the self-styled ‘DSA Democrats’ (Democratic Socialists of America) for their increasingly hard-left positions.

The name ‘Democratic Socialists’ is deliberately misleading, as it aims to make the mainstream and traditionally moderate readership of the Democratic Party think that they are European-style social democrats. They are not at all; many are generic far-left populists, others are pro-Marxist, and all of them are very close to the positions defended in Europe by the hard left of Podemos or La France Insoumise.

Meanwhile, in New York, the dilemma is one of governability: how to translate a radical left-wing programme into budgets, policing and housing without scaring off investment, ruining the city or the middle classes, or causing an exponential rise in insecurity. Madani's programme is ideologically absurd and the surest way to finish off a city that has been in free fall since the two terms of the incompetent DeBlassio.

Judicial setback for the White House: federal judge overturns documentary proof of citizenship requirement to vote

Facts:

A federal court permanently blocked the requirement—via executive order—to provide a passport or other document as ‘proof of citizenship’ to register on the federal electoral form. The judge argued that this is a violation of the principle of separation of powers, as electoral rules are the responsibility of Congress for federal elections and of the states for state and local elections. The Trump administration announced an appeal against the ruling.

Implications:

The ruling limits the executive branch's ability to standardise electoral criteria by decree and returns the power to state legislatures. Politically, it reopens the essential battle to prevent electoral fraud: ‘electoral integrity vs. voter suppression’. However, it is essential to emphasise that many states already require some form of identification, but the federal form (created by the NVRA of 1993) cannot impose additional ‘documentary proof’ without the approval of a law passed by Congress; that is the essence of the court ruling.

What is truly baffling is that in an advanced democracy, no reliable proof of identity is required to exercise the right to vote, and how something so basic in any other democracy has been politicised and taken to hysterical extremes by the Democratic Party.

Canada apologises for anti-tariff Reagan ad: Carney tries to mend fences with Trump

Facts:

Prime Minister Mark Carney apologised to Donald Trump for an Ontario government-funded advertisement featuring one of Ronald Reagan's many speeches against tariffs. Trump cut off trade talks and announced additional tariff increases; Carney regretted the broadcast and expressed his disagreement with the piece.

Implications:

The episode highlights internal Canadian divisions and Ottawa's delicate balancing act between its pro-free trade rhetoric and the reality of a partner that is as hegemonic and essential to its economy as it is protectionist. It is particularly striking because Reagan only applied punitive tariffs to Japan when it began to intensify its unfair competition in industrial products, especially automobiles and electronics. But if there was one staunch defender of free trade and detractor of tariffs and tariff wars, it was Ronald Reagan.

Apologising for a provincial government (Ontario) announcement of a legendary Reagan speech is baffling and represents an unprecedented humiliation for the head of government of a G8 member. For Washington, it is a communications victory: it casts Reagan—a conservative icon—as a defender of free trade against contemporary adversaries. For the markets, it means additional volatility in steel, timber and automotive, as North American supply chains are recalculated.

Nigeria in Washington's crosshairs for attacks on Christians: designation on list and warning of possible sanctions

Facts:

The US administration announced that Nigeria is back on the list of ‘Countries of Particular Concern’ (CPC) for violations of religious freedom, with harsh messages from the White House and its entourage about possible sanctions if Abuja does not act against jihadist militias and attacks on Christian communities.

President Trump announced that he was prepared to bomb camps belonging to jihadist terrorist organisations in Nigeria. The Nigerian government responded intelligently and prudently, assuring that ‘US aid would be welcome while respecting its sovereignty’.

Implications:

The designation is not yet an automatic sanctions package, but it opens the door to restrictions on non-humanitarian assistance and reviews of security cooperation. For Nigeria—a key player in West Africa—the reputational cost adds to debt pressures and violence in rural areas. For Europe, it portends more Sahelian instability and migratory pressure if the religious conflict becomes entrenched.

Serbia: crowds gather in Novi Sad one year after the station collapse

Facts:

Tens of thousands gathered in Novi Sad on the first anniversary of the collapse of the station canopy that killed 16 people. The youth movement that emerged after the tragedy is keeping up the pressure, demanding criminal accountability and resignations.

Implications:

The protest, which had already weakened the government in previous months, has become a citizens' plebiscite against corruption and political collusion. The protests have a clear political background, with firm opposition from a majority but not an overwhelming majority of citizens in favour of EU accession and a certain reluctance to accept Russian influence in their government.

There is no anti-Russian sentiment among the public, as Serbs have not forgotten the inter-Orthodox solidarity shown when Kosovo seceded, which was never a Yugoslav republic but always a province of Serbia. Brussels observes: democratic credibility and effective distancing from Moscow will be tacit conditions for the EU accession dossier not to be relegated.

USA: Government shutdown enters second month, eroding critical functions

Facts:

The federal shutdown, which began on 1 October, has now lasted more than 30 days. The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimates losses of between $7 billion and $14 billion depending on its duration, some $800 million per day in general economic activity losses.

The federal government shutdown is beginning to have very serious consequences: the FBI acknowledges that investigations are being slowed down due to lack of funds, and social programmes (SNAP) are under extreme strain. The White House and the Senate remain deadlocked. The most visible effects are flight delays due to a lack of air traffic controllers, despite the fact that 10,000 are working without pay out of a sense of responsibility, without knowing whether they will be paid retroactively.

Implications:

The immediate economic cost is significant but still manageable. The serious deterioration of the image of the institutions may be irreversible. Public opinion perceives the confrontation as ideological inflexibility and a lack of flexibility and responsibility. Both parties are more concerned with the polls than with the nation's problems, but the public is outraged and blames the political classes as a whole, ‘all of Washington’.

Berkshire Hathaway: final transition to Greg Abel and cash conservatism on the eve of the handover

Facts:

Warren Buffett is preparing to hand over the executive reins to Greg Abel, with the cash position at its highest and a prudent strategy in view of the valuations of his investments and the high volatility of the markets. Buffett would remain as chairman, while Abel would take over general management decisions, as well as capital allocation and day-to-day operations.

Implications:

The combination of ‘high cash + discipline’ suggests that Berkshire will wait for dislocations to deploy dry powder. For the market, Abel represents continuity with greater operational intervention; for shareholders, the message is stability within the same philosophy and culture of the company, with an emphasis on tactical flexibility.

Due to its importance, we provide a more detailed analysis of the UN Security Council Resolution on Western Sahara and the embarrassing episode of the Foreign Minister's public apology for the ‘conquest’ of Mexico.

Security Council Resolution: Western Sahara, a diplomatic victory for Morocco and a defeat for Algerian adventurism

Facts:

The UN Security Council has adopted a resolution consolidating international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, explicitly supporting the plan for autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty as a ‘realistic and credible basis’ for a definitive solution to the conflict. This is an unprecedented diplomatic triumph for Rabat and a direct setback for Algeria and the Polisario, whose maximalist positions have been relegated to the margins of the international agenda.

Moroccan diplomacy—which has been very tenacious, effective and professional—has managed to transform its African isolation (which led to its departure from the OAU in 1984) into a network of continental support, returning to the African Union (AU) in style in 2017 and becoming a central player on the continent. Today, more than 30 countries in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean (including nations such as the Dominican Republic and Guatemala) endorse the autonomy plan. More than 28 states (almost half of African countries) have opened consulates in Dakhla and Laayoune (El Aaiun), recognising de facto Moroccan sovereignty, following the lead of regional allies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Jordan.

Global powers such as the United States (which recognised sovereignty in 2020, a decision ratified by the Biden administration) and most of the relevant European states — France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain — now consider this solution to be the only viable basis for peace.

The resolution is also supported by historical arguments (pre-colonial ties recognised by the ICJ in 1975) and legal arguments (alignment with Resolution 2654 of 2022). Algeria and some other governments of Sunni Muslim-majority countries in the region fear the religious influence of the King of Morocco among Sunni Muslims of the Maliki rite, of whom the Alawite monarch is the spiritual leader.

Implications:

The Council's vote reflects the profound shift in the balance of power in the Maghreb. Morocco has established itself as an essential partner of the West in the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking and organised crime. Faced with the disintegration of the Sahel, with the simultaneous expansion of groups such as Daesh-Sahel (ISGS), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Boko Haram, the Kingdom represents a bulwark of stability and modernity.

Meanwhile, Algeria — with the Polisario as its main proxy and diplomatically isolated — has lost influence on the continent and in the Mediterranean region. The resolution legitimises a position that Spain should have taken decades ago. The social reality in the territory, with Moroccan investments of more than €7 billion since 2015, contrasts with the situation in Tindouf. As polls (including those by the Elcano Royal Institute) indicate, a large part of the Sahrawi population rejects disjointed independence and subordination to Algerian interests.

A hypothetical ‘Sahrawi state’ under Algerian tutelage would be, as has been pointed out on numerous occasions by some of the most reputable analysts, a hotbed of chaos, crime and terrorism. A veritable ‘epicentre’ of instability connecting the violence and terrorism of the Sahel with Europe and even the American continent. The UN, the main Western intelligence services and the major powers are well aware of this.

That is why the consensus prevails, not necessarily out of sympathy or alignment with Morocco's historical and legal arguments (although in many cases it does), but out of realism, especially in the case of the Western powers. In the end, they are very stubborn and have agreed with the strategy of stability, security and alignment with the major powers promoted by Rabat.

The monumental absurdity of the ‘historical apology’: Albares and the national complex in the face of the black legend

Facts:

The foreign minister of Spain's far-left government, José Manuel Albares, has officially apologised to Mexico for the conquest of America, reopening an unnecessary controversy that divides even Spanish-American historians, a growing number of whom are increasingly in line with Zunzunegui or Gullo.

The gesture, diplomatically inappropriate, extraordinarily clumsy in its execution and motivated by complexes and radical ideology and fuelled by ignorance, fuels the narrative of the Black Legend, by assuming as true the distorted vision in a fictional and defamatory account propagated by Spain's rival powers for centuries.

Coinciding with this gesture, media outlets such as the BBC broadcast headlines (news reports from 1-2 November 2025) that were as simplistic and lacking in historiographical rigour as ‘millions of indigenous people killed during the Spanish conquest’. The Spanish Foreign Ministry, instead of refuting the misinformation, offered a perfect propaganda alibi for this false narrative.

Implications:

Spain has nothing to apologise for. As noted by Spanish-American historians of the stature of Mexico's Juan Miguel Zunzunegui and Argentina's Marcelo Gullo, the Conquest was — with all its ups and downs — an unprecedented process of integration, miscegenation and civilisation.

Zunzunegui argues that Spain did not “conquer” in the predatory sense, but often “liberated” peoples oppressed by bloodthirsty empires such as the Aztecs, where human sacrifice was common practice. Gullo, in his work ‘Madre Patria’ (Motherland), describes the process as “astonishing” and dismantles the Black Legend as the ‘first fake news in history’.

He emphasises that no other European empire legally recognised the conquered peoples as subjects with rights (Leyes de Burgos, 1512), forging a universal mestizo civilisation that today unites 550 million people, not a mere Anglo-Saxon extractive colony based on extermination.

The high indigenous mortality rate, as attested to by serious historians (from John Elliott to Carmen Iglesias and Noble David Cook), was due 80-90% to epidemics and unknown pathogens, not to systematic massacres or intentional genocide. Repeating without context that ‘Spain killed millions’ is as false as it is morally grotesque.

The underlying problem is not historical, but psychological and political: a self-conscious left, eager to please postcolonial currents and Anglo-Saxon discourses of hereditary guilt, has ended up renouncing the defence of historical truth. Apologising for having created Hispanic civilisation is an act of diplomatic and cultural self-humiliation.

Media rack (selection by headlines)

• Reuters: Terrorism ruled out for now in train stabbing and details of court ruling against documentary proof of citizenship; analysis of the shutdown and its effect on Congress's spending power; Nigeria's return to the list of ‘special concern’.
• The Guardian: Minute-by-minute coverage of the attack in Cambridgeshire; human focus on food banks due to the shutdown; political assessment of the cost of the shutdown.
• AP/PBS: Procedural details of the D.C. ruling blocking the citizenship test.
• Al Jazeera: Carney's apology for Reagan's announcement; chronicle and context of the Serbian protests; coverage of Nigeria's designation.
• The Washington Post: In-depth note on Mamdani and the Democratic divide.
• ABC (Australia/US): Follow-up on Carney's apology and Obama's call to Mamdani.
• BusinessDay/Fortune: Business reading of the Buffett-Abel transition.

Editorial commentary on the two news items with the greatest impact in Spain

While Morocco consolidates its influence and achieves diplomatic victories at the UN, the OAU, and among African and Latin American countries, once hostile, thanks to a firm, coherent and strategic foreign policy and tenacious diplomacy, Spain is lost in empty gestures and self-destructive revisionism.

The contrast is striking: Rabat is moving forward with determination and vision, while Madrid is distracted by pseudo-moral complexes that are more counterproductive than unproductive. If Spain aspires to regain influence in the world (we are absent from all circles of real influence), it must reconcile itself with its history and adopt a foreign policy that defends its national interests, rather than pursuing a deeply ideological foreign policy based on short-term political and electoral interests.

Our history and our legacy cannot be subjected to the judgement of those who neither understand nor respect the historical importance of the fusion of two worlds and Spain's contributions to humanity, especially its commitment to America. Spain and America are brothers, with a common history, language and culture, with all their variety and enormous richness, and ideological extremism, wokism and revisionism cannot change or destroy that, no matter how hard they try.