Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 1 October

Global positioning- Depositphotos

Gustavo de Arístegui

01 de octubre de 2025 (13:37 h.)

1) Overview of the day

White House plan for Gaza: Trump presented a 20-point plan with a highly coercive component (ceasefire, release of hostages within 72 hours, disarmament of Hamas and transitional administration with international leadership). Netanyahu expressed support; Hamas is evaluating it under a ‘3-4 day’ ultimatum; several Arab and European capitals backed it with nuances.
Morocco: wave of decentralised youth protests (Gen Z 212 -212 is Morocco's international telephone code) over health, education and corruption; arrests and isolated clashes; criticism of spending on the 2030 World Cup.
US — Government shutdown: began at 00:01 on 1 October due to lack of budget agreement; essential services are maintained, but hundreds of thousands of employees are furloughed or unpaid; lack of official data and political noise move markets (gold at record high, dollar down).
Civil-military relations in the US: Trump and Defence Secretary Hegseth gathered senior commanders in Quantico with an openly political message (criticism of diversity, threats of purges, idea of using cities as ‘training camps’; reference to renaming the Pentagon the ‘Department of War’, still to be approved).
Other: 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Cebu (Philippines) with at least 69 dead and significant damage to infrastructure; will be the focus of international assistance.

2) In focus (analysis and strategic reading)

2.1. Reactions and forecasts regarding Trump's peace plan for Gaza

What it proposes (operational key): immediate ceasefire, release of hostages within 72 hours, prisoner exchange, disarmament of Hamas, phased Israeli withdrawal and international transitional authority for a ‘New Gaza’ with conditional reconstruction and ‘deradicalisation’.

Actors and positions

Israel (Netanyahu): public support, but with resistance from the far right (Ben-Gvir) to concessions; limited political room for manoeuvre.
Hamas: under strong pressure from the ‘3-4 day’ ultimatum; rejects disarmament without political guarantees; evaluating with mediators (Qatar, Egypt, Turkey).
Arabs and EU: conditional support from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE, and favourable signals from the EU.

Risks and catalysts (72 hours):

Conditional acceptance by Hamas → high risk of implementation disputes (verification of disarmament and internal security).
Israeli ‘yes, but...’ → friction within Netanyahu's coalition; need for security guarantees and a more relaxed withdrawal timetable.
Hamas rejection → escalation with Washington's political ‘green light’ to intensify operations; additional humanitarian cost (more than 66,000 Palestinians killed since 2023).

Implications for companies/NGOs: prioritise access and security plans linked to a possible international transition mechanism; anticipate compliance checks (enhanced due diligence) and insurance for reconstruction projects.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at a joint press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on 29 September 2025 - REUTERS/JOHATHAN ERNST

2.2. Protests in Morocco

Structural: youth discontent over public services and employment, organised in networks (without vertical leadership), with a patriotic framework and slogans against sports spending.

Tactical: police containment with preventive arrests and dispersal of marches in several cities (Rabat, Casablanca, Agadir, Tangier, Oujda).

Scenarios (1–4 weeks):

Selective concessions (announcements on health/education, anti-corruption gestures) + maintenance of order → likely.
Tightening (more arrests, limits on networks) if inter-city coordination grows → possible.
Structured dialogue with youth actors → less likely due to lack of formal leadership.

Regional risks: if coinciding with international events (2030 calendar) or economic shocks, risk of social contagion in the Maghreb.

Members of the security forces arrest a man while preventing a protest demanding reforms in education and health care in Rabat, Morocco, on 29 September 2025 - REUTERS/AHMED EL JECHTIMI

2.3. Budget crisis and shutdown in the US

Current situation: shutdown began on 1 October due to Senate blockage of a CR; essential services continue, but hundreds of thousands of civil servants are on furlough or without pay.

Macro impact: official data (employment, etc.) could be delayed; gold at highs, weaker dollar; additional noise for energy and air transport.

Politics: the sticking point includes total spending (~£1.7 trillion in agencies), healthcare subsidies (ACA credits) and the use of cuts/impoundment; the White House is suggesting restructuring and permanent layoffs, which is hardening the negotiations.

Immediate risks (week 1):

Federal services: partial closures (parks, culture, part of science); continuity in Social Security/Medicare.
Markets: volatility due to ‘blind’ data; sovereign credit sensitivity if the shutdown is prolonged.

2.4. Trump–Hegseth meeting with military leaders

Political event: unusual conclave in Quantico with an openly partisan speech and messages to shape the leadership (criticism of diversity standards; threats to remove those who disagree; use of cities as ‘training’ grounds and renaming the DoD to ‘Department of War’ (idea in progress)).

Strategic reading:

Civil-military norms: risk of erosion of military apoliticality and Posse Comitatus if the use of troops in internal security is expanded.
International signal: allies may perceive greater unpredictability in the use of force and in the management of domestic crises.

US President Donald Trump makes an announcement about the Golden Dome missile defence shield alongside US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on 20 May 2025 - REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE

3) Other international developments to watch

Philippines — earthquake in Cebu: 69 confirmed dead; priority given to search and rescue and restoration of services; possibility of requests for assistance from partners (US, Japan, EU, Australia).
Energy — OPEC+: signs of additional supply increase in November; adds downward pressure on crude oil in a context of federal shutdown and weaker dollar.
Ukraine: limited offensive operations in Donetsk (recovery of towns and containment of Russian offensive); moderate military impact, but political signal of resilience.

A woman walks past a damaged building after a missile strike in Konstantinovka, in the Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine - AP/ NARIMAN EL-MOFTY

4) Key scenarios (next 7–10 days)

Gaza

Agreement in principle with safeguards for verification → window for international mechanism and humanitarian relief.
No agreement → military escalation and greater isolation of Hamas; pressure on Netanyahu from the right.

US — shutdown

Short CR (1–2 weeks) with limited swaps → normalises data and low volatility.
Prolonged stalemate (≥3 weeks) → deterioration of confidence, rating risk and effects on federal contracts.

Morocco

Controlled decompression with social announcements.
Tension if there are national calls to action and visible repression in large cities.

5) Signs on the board (what to measure)

Political signs: final position of Hamas (Doha), procedural votes in the US Senate, and narrative from the Moroccan Royal Palace (if it moves from the Interior to social announcements).
Markets: gold and T-notes as a barometer of the shutdown; crude oil spreads if OPEC+ accelerates supply.
US civil-military: executive orders or directives that operationalise the use of troops in cities.

6) Immediate agenda

Today–Friday (72 hours): window for the ultimatum to Hamas; signals from Doha/Cairo.
This week: attempts at emergency votes in the US Senate; agency operating guidelines during the shutdown.
Coming days: possible calls for new marches in Morocco; government response.
Early October: definition of OPEC+ trajectory for November.

MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN NEWS

1. Reactions and forecasts regarding Trump's peace plan for Gaza

Trump's 20-point plan, presented on 29 September, proposes a ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the demilitarisation of Gaza supervised by independent monitors, and a technocratic transitional government under a ‘Peace Council’ chaired by Trump himself, with figures such as Tony Blair. It includes amnesty for Hamas members who disarm and voluntary exile for others, along with internationally funded reconstruction and the opening of crossings such as Rafah.

Reactions: Israel, via Netanyahu, fully supports it, seeing it as a way to ‘finish the job’ against Hamas if it is rejected 5 9 . Arab countries (Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) welcome it with cautious optimism, emphasising a two-state solution and no forced displacement. The Palestinian Authority hails it as a ‘sincere effort’ but insists on mechanisms against Israeli annexations. Hamas, under pressure, calls it ‘Israeli guardianship’ and a senior leader predicts rejection in 3-4 days, warning of a ‘sad end’ 3 6 . In X, Arab critics see it as ‘humiliation’ for Palestinians, while Modi supports it without comment from Trump 40 43 .

Forecasts: If Hamas rejects it (likely), Israel could intensify offensives with ‘full support’ from the US, increasing deaths (already >66,000) 1 7 and destabilising Lebanon and Jordan. Acceptance would open the way for reconstruction (immediate aid as in January 2025), but without a role for Hamas, it could fracture Palestinian factions 10. Geopolitically, it strengthens Trump's influence in the Middle East, attracting Russia (which ‘supports’ it without getting involved) 46 and India, but ignores Palestinian aspirations, risking isolation from the EU (which demands two states) 2.

2. Protests in Morocco

Youth demonstrations, initiated on 27 September by anonymous groups such as GenZ 212 and Morocco Youth Voice, demand reforms in education and public health, criticising corruption and spending on sporting events (2025 African Cup and 2030 World Cup, >$2 billion on stadiums) . Triggered by maternal deaths in Agadir (eight women in a public hospital), they have escalated into violence in cities such as Rabat, Casablanca, Agadir, Oujda and Tiznit, with >200 arrests and clashes on 30 September (stones vs. riot police, one death in Oujda due to police running over a protester) 15 23 17 .

Reactions: The government coalition offers ‘institutional dialogue’ and praises the ‘balanced reaction’ of the police 15 , but opponents and human rights groups (Moroccan Association for Human Rights) denounce repression and violation of freedom of expression (Art. 29 Constitution) 17 21 . In X, viral videos show police charges, with slogans such as ‘We want hospitals, not stadiums’ 56 60.

Forecasts: With youth unemployment at 35.8%, protests could spread to more cities, evoking those of 2011 (Arab Spring), putting pressure on King Mohammed VI for reforms 16 20. Geopolitically, Morocco (a US/EU partner on migration and the Sahel) risks instability, benefiting extremists in the region and complicating its role in Gaza (Arab mediator) 18.

3. Budget Crisis and US Government Shutdown

At 00:01 EDT on 1 October, the federal government shut down after a continuing resolution failed in the Senate (55-45, without 60 votes for a filibuster) 25 27 . Causes: Republicans refuse to extend ACA subsidies (expiring in 2025, benefiting 3.8 million) 25 ; Democrats blame ‘partisan rescissions’ 28 . Trump threatens ‘irreversible’ layoffs via OMB, possibly violating the Hatch Act 33 37 .

Impacts: >750,000 employees furloughed (no initial pay, but retroactive); national parks limited, Smithsonian museums close in ~1 week, TSA/Coast Guard operate without pay 26 36. Markets: Gold at record $3,799/oz as safe haven; Wall Street futures fall 1% 91 83. In X, Republicans blame Democrats 88.

Forecasts: Short shutdown (days/weeks) would cost $11 billion in GDP 29, but prolonged shutdown would erode confidence in Trump, affecting NATO and aid to Ukraine. Historically, it benefits markets post-resolution 92.

4. Partisan speeches by Trump and Hegseth to military leaders at Quantico

In an unusual and hastily arranged event at Marine Corps Base Quantico (30 September), Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth harangued hundreds of generals, criticising predecessors (Biden/Obama) and promoting their ‘America First’ agenda 97. Trump used the forum to boast about political achievements; Hegseth lectured on ‘standards’ and loyalty. Military leaders listened silently, with no public reaction 97 .

Forecasts: This partisan ‘display of grievances’ breaks with apolitical tradition, risking divisions in the command (e.g., purges as in 2020), weakening preparedness for threats such as China/Russia and NATO cohesion. In the context of a shutdown, it could catalyse resignations, impacting operations in the Indo-Pacific.

Other Relevant News from an International Perspective

Ukraine-Russia: Pressure for a ceasefire grows with Trump's mediation; Russian advances in Donbas, but EU excludes Europe from talks 66 77. Risk: NATO fragmentation if the US prioritises Gaza.
Cybersecurity and Energy: Record attacks in Africa (using Starlink/drones) and cyber threats to submarine cables raise global energy risks 65 72 ; shutdown complicates DHS response.
Elections and Stability: In Moldova, elections could tip the balance in favour of Russia, destabilising the EU; in Peru, Gen Z protests similar to those in Morocco 64.
Global Trade: New US tariffs (100% on pharmaceuticals, 25% on trucks) since 1 October escalate tensions with China/EU, benefiting gold but slowing supply chains 82.

Impact of the Shutdown on the US's External Projection

The US federal government shutdown, effective from 1 October 2025, paralyses non-essential functions, indirectly weakening Washington's ability to influence international scenarios such as Gaza and Morocco. Although essential military operations continue (under the Anti-Deficiency Act), internal chaos reduces diplomatic credibility, delays aid and complicates responses to crises. Below, I detail the connections based on historical and current impacts.

General Effects on US Foreign Policy

Furloughs (temporary suspension of employment without pay but with reinstatement and retroactive payment of wages) and Diplomatic Delays: More than 750,000 federal employees—some sources put the number at one million federal employees—(including those from the State Department and USAID) are suspended without pay, affecting embassies, negotiations, and visa/aid processing. In past shutdowns (e.g., 2018-2019), official trips were cancelled and multilateral commitments were delayed, eroding U.S. influence in forums such as the UN and NATO.
Economic and Credibility Impact: The estimated cost (up to $11 billion in GDP per week) creates internal instability, projecting weakness to allies and adversaries. Countries such as Russia or China could exploit this to gain ground in volatile regions.
Limited Exceptions: Defence and national security are operating, but with tensions (e.g., essential personnel without immediate pay), which could reduce efficiency in logistical support.

Connection to the Gaza Peace Plan

Key Role of the US: Trump's 20-point plan places Washington as the central mediator, with commitments to monitoring, control and verification, reconstruction, all of which are frozen until a spending cap agreement is reached and the federal machinery starts up again.

Media Rack - 1 October 2025

Summary of how the main international media outlets cover key geopolitical analysis news. Based on recent searches, the focus, reactions and forecasts in outlets such as the BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters, The New York Times (NYT), CNN, The Guardian, Le Monde and El País are highlighted. Global, regional and critical perspectives are prioritised.

1. Reactions and Forecasts to Trump's Peace Plan for Gaza

The media emphasises the initial optimism of allies, but highlights Hamas' scepticism and the risks of escalation. Mixed coverage: Arab support, but criticism for lack of Palestinian consultation.

BBC: Middle Eastern and European leaders welcome the plan, with Netanyahu fully backing it. Trump warns that if Hamas rejects it, Israel will have US support to ‘finish the job.’ Local reactions in Gaza and Jerusalem vary between hope and scepticism.
Al Jazeera: Welcomed by the Palestinian Authority and Arab leaders (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan), but they insist on a two-state solution without displacement. Criticism for Palestinian ‘humiliation’; Hamas sees it as ‘Israeli guardianship’.
Reuters: Focus on details: immediate ceasefire, exchange of hostages/prisoners, phased Israeli withdrawal, disarmament of Hamas and transitional government under a ‘Board of Peace’ chaired by Trump (with Tony Blair). Netanyahu agrees, but Hamas under pressure with a 3-4 day ultimatum.
NYT: Trump and Netanyahu pressure Hamas with ‘either accept or Israel will finish the job’. Plan includes amnesty for disarmed Hamas, reconstruction and indefinite Israeli buffer. Mix of hope and criticism for ignoring Palestinian aspirations.
CNN: Trump presents it as a ‘great day for civilisation,’ with Netanyahu in agreement. Details: Arab-led ISF for security, Palestinian committee for governance. Mixed reactions in Gaza; similarities with previous failed plans.

2. Protests in Morocco

Coverage focused on violent escalation and youth demands for health/education reforms vs. spending on sports. Arab and European media highlight repression and parallels with Arab Spring.

Al Jazeera: Protests led by Gen Z 212 and Morocco Youth Voice in Rabat, Casablanca, Agadir; >200 arrests. Triggered by deaths in Agadir hospital; criticism of corruption and investment in 2025 African Cup/2030 World Cup (>$2 billion). One dead in Oujda.
CNN: Clashes in multiple cities; demands for ‘hospitals, not stadiums.’ Government defends advances in health care; dismissals of officials. Leaderless movement, organised on TikTok/Discord; youth unemployment at 35.8%.
Reuters: Violence on fourth day: stones vs. police in Tiznit, Oujda, Rabat; vehicles damaged. Government offers dialogue; opponents denounce repression. Focus on arrests and similarities with 2011 protests.

3. Budget crisis and US government shutdown

Media highlights blame game between parties, economic impacts and threats of layoffs. Global coverage sees weakening of US on international stage.

CNN: Shutdown since midnight; >750,000 furloughed. Causes: Republican rejection of ACA subsidies. Trump threatens ‘irreversible’ layoffs. Impacts: closed parks, TSA unpaid; cost ~$11 billion/week.
Al Jazeera: Senate fails (55-45); Democrats blame partisan divisions. Trump: ‘good at shutdowns’. Markets fall; gold rises.
NYT: Senate adjourns without agreement; blame on social media (Trump: ‘Democrat Shutdown’). Republican optimism over Democratic defections; AI racist videos of Trump vs. Democratic leaders.
BBC: White House prepares mass layoffs; Trump rejects meeting with Democrats due to health concerns.

4. Partisan speeches by Trump and Hegseth to military leaders in Quantico

Critical coverage for partisanship at military forum; fears of internal divisions and apolitical erosion.

Reuters: Hegseth criticises diversity/“woke”, defends layoffs; Trump suggests US cities as “training”. Generals silent; Democrats: “ominous”.
NYT: Hegseth: stricter standards, end to ‘toxic leadership.’ Trump: praise, but complaints about ‘woke.’ Initial speculation about firings; silence from brass.
CNN: Trump: falsehoods about military (e.g., Ukraine spending). Hegseth: ‘warriors, not woke.’ Analysis: political recruitment; footnote on military use in LA.

Other Relevant News (Ukraine-Russia, Cyberattacks)

Ukraine-Russia: Reuters: Putin: end by force if no talks; Zelenskiy pushes for meeting. Slow progress; ceasefire pending. NYT: Russian air strikes amid stalled talks; Putin refuses ceasefire before concessions. BBC: Kallas (EU): territorial concessions ‘Putin's trap’.
Cyberattacks on Energy Infrastructure: Reuters: 70% increase in the US (Check Point); ransomware in utilities. China accuses NSA; Singapore attacks Chinese group. NYT: Salt Typhoon (China) steals data from almost all Americans; global targets in energy/communications.