Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 17 November 2025
- Trump and the Epstein files: transparency forced by pressure from his own base
- Japan: economic contraction and the need for structural reforms
- Japan-China tensions: Beijing uses tourism as an economic weapon
- West Africa: Mali on the brink of collapse and regional jihadist threat
- Chile: second round between radical communism and the nationalist right
- Venezuela-United States: historic military deployment in the Caribbean
- European Union: paralysis over frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
- Gold: a safe haven amid dollar weakness and the reconfiguration of global reserves
- War in Ukraine: Russia maintains the initiative as the conflict approaches 1,000 days
- UN Security Council: vote on international force in Gaza
- Final analysis and international media panel
Trump and the Epstein files: transparency forced by pressure from his own base
Facts:
President Donald Trump, democratically elected by a large majority of Americans, has made a strategic shift by publicly urging Republicans in Congress to vote in favour of the full declassification of files related to Jeffrey Epstein and his criminal plot. The House of Representatives is preparing for a vote that would compel the Department of Justice to disclose all documents on Epstein, including those related to his death in federal prison in 2019.
This change of position represents a pragmatic response to pressure from sectors of his own Republican ranks, including voices such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has led the movement for greater transparency in this matter that has shaken the foundations of American political and economic power. Trump stated on Truth Social that Republicans ‘have nothing to hide’ and that it is time to ‘move on from this Democratic hoax perpetrated by lunatics on the radical left.’
Last week, thousands of documents from the case were leaked, including communications between Epstein and his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell. The confrontation has caused tensions within the Republican Party, with Trump withdrawing his support for Greene, who attributed the rift entirely to his position on the Epstein files.
Implications:
This episode reflects the strength of US democratic institutions, which, despite fierce criticism from US Democrats and many European and global media outlets, impose on the president the obligation to respond to the demands for transparency from citizens and their elected representatives.
Trump, with his usual political pragmatism, is ahead of the radical left, which has exploited the Epstein case to undermine the legitimacy of its opponents.
The presidential strategy is clear: to defuse the rhetorical offensives of the left by anticipating and dismantling the political and media manoeuvres that seek to destabilise his presidency and the Republican majority. This decision strengthens ties with his electorate and demonstrates that those elected in free and competitive elections are accountable to the public, not to media conglomerates with opposing ideologies.
The break with Marjorie Taylor Greene, formerly an unconditional ally, illustrates that in a healthy democracy, personal loyalties give way to demands for accountability. The publication of these files may finally unmask networks of corruption and depravity that have operated for decades in the shadows of power, affecting both prominent Democratic and Republican figures.
Japan: economic contraction and the need for structural reforms
Facts:
The Japanese economy recorded its first contraction in six quarters, with an annualised decline of 1.8% in GDP in the third quarter of 2025. The quarterly contraction was 0.4%, which was better than market expectations. Exports fell by 4.5% on an annualised basis, particularly affected by US tariffs on Japanese products, especially in the automotive sector.
Private consumption grew by just 0.1%, while corporate investment increased by a modest 1.0%. Residential investment plummeted by more than 9% following the introduction of stricter building codes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a £17 trillion (£110 billion) fiscal stimulus package focused on strategic growth areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and shipbuilding.
Implications:
This contraction confirms the fragility of the Japanese economic model, which is overly dependent on external demand and weighed down by rapid demographic ageing and structurally high levels of public debt. The Trump administration's tariffs are a reminder that, in a world ruled by ‘America First’, no ally is completely safe from Washington's trade policy.
Japan is faced with a delicate balancing act: increasing public spending to avoid recession without destabilising a financial system saturated with sovereign debt, while the Bank of Japan hesitates over normalising interest rates, which could stifle the timid recovery. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.73%, its highest level since June 2008, indicating that investors are demanding higher returns for the risk of holding Japanese debt.
Prime Minister Takaichi faces the challenge of demonstrating economic management skills to consolidate her leadership at a time when diplomatic tensions with China are adding additional pressure on the recovery. For Europe, the message is uncomfortable: relying exclusively on the US strategic umbrella does not guarantee benign treatment in the economic arena.
Japan-China tensions: Beijing uses tourism as an economic weapon
Facts:
Sino-Japanese relations have deteriorated dramatically following statements by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who suggested in the Japanese Parliament (the Duma) on 7 November that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a ‘situation threatening the survival’ of Japan, which would empower the country to exercise its right to collective defence. Takaichi stated that even a Chinese naval blockade against Taiwan could trigger this security clause.
Beijing's response has been forceful and multifaceted. The Chinese government issued a travel warning on Friday urging its citizens to avoid Japan, citing ‘multiple crimes and attacks against Chinese nationals this year.’ Three major Chinese airlines immediately offered full refunds or free changes for flights to Japan until the end of the year. On Sunday, the Chinese Coast Guard conducted a patrol in the territorial waters of the disputed Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu by China).
On Monday, Tokyo dispatched Masaaki Kanai, director-general of the Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, to Beijing for emergency meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Liu Jinsong. Shares in Japanese tourism and distribution companies have plummeted, with estimates of a possible loss of around 2.2 trillion yen per year if the Chinese tourism ban continues.
Implications:
Beijing is once again demonstrating its willingness to use economic tools as a weapon of diplomatic coercion, as it did against South Korea over the US THAAD missile defence system. Travel restrictions and recommendations and airfare refund facilities are measures calibrated to inflict economic damage without resorting to formal sanctions that could escalate the conflict.
Prime Minister Takaichi's firmness in abandoning, albeit subtly, Japan's traditional ‘strategic ambiguity’ towards Taiwan reflects a state decision to align Tokyo more closely with Washington in the context of the Sino-US confrontation. However, this stance has an immediate economic cost: China is Japan's largest trading partner, and Chinese tourism represents a crucial segment of the Japanese service industry.
This crisis is part of the broader context of China's strategic positioning ahead of an expected shift to a more offensive stance, as The Economist points out. The firmness of China's response suggests that Beijing considers it imperative to establish clear red lines now on any external interference in the Taiwan issue.
For Japan, the challenge is to maintain its security commitment to the United States and the region without precipitating an economic break with China that would be devastating. For Europe, the lesson is clear: those who challenge China pay an immediate economic price, a reality that should temper fantasies of zero-cost “strategic autonomy”.
West Africa: Mali on the brink of collapse and regional jihadist threat
Facts:
Mali is on the brink of state collapse under pressure from the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Al Qaeda's Sahelian franchise, which has implemented a fuel blockade that is economically suffocating the Bamako government. In September, JNIM declared a blockade on the cities of Kayes and Nioro in the south-west of the country, banning fuel imports from Senegal, Guinea, Ivory Coast and Mauritania, which has led to critical shortages and widespread economic disruption.
The jihadist terrorist group, with approximately 6,000 terrorist fighters spread across Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Benin, Togo and Ghana, has evolved its strategy beyond direct military violence to incorporate an economic warfare component. The JNIM has intensified attacks on fuel tankers and foreign-operated mining facilities, in addition to carrying out systematic kidnappings.
The Malian government increasingly relies on Russian mercenaries for protection, initially the Wagner Group and now its successor, the Africa Corps. Mali withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025, increasing its vulnerability to JNIM. Last week, JNIM claimed responsibility for its first attack in Nigeria, signalling its geographical expansion.
Implications:
The potential collapse of Mali would have ramifications that transcend the country's borders. Analysts at the Soufan Centre warn of a potential domino effect that could topple governments in Burkina Faso and Niger, propelling jihadist momentum across coastal West Africa. JNIM's strategic pattern eerily mirrors the lightning offensives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria in December 2024 and the Taliban in Afghanistan in August 2021.
If Mali's government falls, it would be a significant blow to Russia, which militarily backs the Malian regime, proving once again that Moscow's military muscle is no panacea for weak and failed states. Russian failure in Mali would add to its difficulties in Ukraine and project an image of strategic overextension.
For Europe, particularly France, the collapse of Mali would validate warnings about the consequences of Western withdrawal, but it would also reflect the failure of decades of European intervention to build sustainable state institutions in the region. The migration crisis towards Europe would inevitably intensify if large areas of the Sahel fall under jihadist control, generating new waves of displaced persons.
The tactical pragmatism between JNIM and EIGS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara), groups that would normally be ideological rivals, demonstrates the strategic sophistication of these terrorist organisations. While Europe looks obsessively at Ukraine and Gaza, it forgets that its migration and security vulnerability also lies in the Sahel.
Chile: second round between radical communism and the nationalist right
Facts:
Chile is heading for a highly tense presidential run-off on 14 December, pitting Jeannette Jara, a 51-year-old communist candidate and former labour minister, against José Antonio Kast, a 59-year-old veteran politician from the conservative and nationalist right, a practising Catholic and defender of the traditional family.
With more than 90% of the votes counted, Jara won 26.7% compared to Kast's 24.1%. Kast, who is aligned with US President Donald Trump, has promised to deport tens of thousands of undocumented immigrants and build ditches and walls along the northern border with Bolivia to prevent passage from a decaying Venezuela.
A surprise third candidate, Franco Parisi of the People's Party, won 19.71%, while Johannes Kaiser of the National Libertarian Party captured 13.94%.
The elections were held under the compulsory voting system reintroduced in 2022, ensuring massive turnout. The parliamentary results showed significant fragmentation, with no bloc achieving an absolute majority.
Implications:
Chile's extreme polarisation between radical communism and a nationalist right wing reflects broader continental dynamics of fragmentation of the political centre and the rise of anti-establishment options in Ibero-America. The collapse of the traditional centre-right signals a terminal crisis of the consensus-based political model that characterised Chile's post-Pinochet democratic transition.
Kast's strong performance shows that his ‘law and order’ platform resonates powerfully in a context where organised crime—largely imported—has infiltrated traditionally safe areas. The narrative of immigration as a threat capitalises on real anxieties about the impact of Venezuelan migration flows on public services and citizen security.
For Jara, victory in the first round provides momentum, but the road ahead is complex. He will need to consolidate the scattered left-wing vote and persuade Parisi and Kaiser voters, whose anti-establishment populist agendas do not align ideologically with either of the two finalists.
However, candidates Kaiser and Evelyn Matthei have already announced their support for KAST. We find it impossible to imagine that a right-wing populist candidate like Franco Parisi (who is indeed far right) would support a communist candidate.
Furthermore, the communist candidate will have to respond to the concerns of most Chileans about her unwavering support for the tyrannies of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Alberto Mayol, a political analyst at the University of Santiago, predicts that ‘any right-wing candidate who makes it to the second round will be the next president of Chile,’ given that the sum of right-wing votes slightly exceeded 50% in the first round. Parliamentary fragmentation guarantees that any president will face severe difficulties in implementing their agenda.
For the Ibero-American region, a Kast victory would consolidate an axis of nationalist right-wing governments stretching from Argentina (Javier Milei) to potentially Chile. A Jara victory would revitalise the forces of the São Paulo Forum. The economic context weighs heavily: Chile faces slowing growth and unmet social demands.
It is essential to emphasise that Kast represents a firm, nationalist right wing, not an ‘ultra-right’ as certain media outlets seek to caricature him. His proposals for immigration control and public safety respond to legitimate concerns of millions of Chileans who see their quality of life deteriorating due to crime and uncontrolled irregular immigration. Labelling all conservative positions as ‘extreme’ is part of the radical left's strategy to delegitimise democratic alternatives.
Venezuela-United States: historic military deployment in the Caribbean
Facts:
The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's most advanced aircraft carrier, has arrived in the Caribbean as part of the largest US military deployment in the region in generations. The strike group includes nine air squadrons, two Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, the integrated command ship USS Winston S. Churchill, and more than 4,000 sailors.
The United States has framed this deployment as an operation aimed at combating drug trafficking and the flow of drugs into US territory, having carried out at least 20 attacks on drug trafficking vessels in recent weeks. The Venezuelan dictatorship has responded by announcing a ‘massive mobilisation’ of military personnel, weapons and equipment.
Dictator Nicolás Maduro and his despicable narco-dictatorship have condemned the military deployment near South America. The deployment is a consequence of the mafia and criminal activities of the Chavista regime, which is a criminal organisation dedicated to the most repugnant crimes imaginable.
The State Department will announce the designation of the Cartel of the Suns — the criminal structure embedded in the Venezuelan state — as a foreign terrorist organisation. From a legal standpoint, this completely changes the geostrategic landscape in the region and places the Chavista regime and its terminals on the same level as Daesh (Islamic State), Al-Qaeda or Hezbollah (incidentally, an ally of Chavismo since the beginning of this century), Boko Haram or the Houthis. There is no greater shame than this. On 15 October, Trump authorised the CIA to carry out lethal ground operations inside Venezuela.
Implications:
This military deployment represents the most significant projection of US power in the Caribbean since the Cold War. The presence of the USS Gerald R. Ford less than 200 kilometres from the Venezuelan coast sends an unequivocal message about the seriousness of Washington's intentions. Mark Cancian, senior advisor at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, explained that the Ford's presence creates a narrow window for action that cannot remain without consequences.
The official narrative about drug trafficking barely conceals broader objectives related to the end of the Maduro regime, which has become a threat to hemispheric security. The authorisation of lethal ground operations by the CIA marks a dramatic qualitative escalation that has historically preceded direct military interventions or decisive support for internal opposition forces.
For Venezuela, the deployment represents an existential threat to the regime's leadership. The mobilisation of the Bolivarian Militia should be viewed with scepticism: the Venezuelan armed forces are estimated to have 125,000 personnel on paper, but experts describe the army as an institution ‘in ruins’, corroded by corruption and lack of maintenance. The gap between warmongering rhetoric and actual military capability is abysmal.
The timing of the deployment coincides with trade tensions and the USMCA review scheduled for 2026. The projection of military power in the United States' immediate sphere of influence sends signals to both global adversaries and hemispheric allies about Washington's willingness to use force when it considers its vital interests to be threatened.
The oil dimension is crucial: Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves. Control of these resources by a narco-regime aligned with the enemies of the West is unsustainable; their recovery for the free market would fundamentally alter global energy markets and the geopolitics of crude oil.
European Union: paralysis over frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
Facts:
The European Union is facing an intense debate on how to use approximately €193 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance the defence and reconstruction of Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday reiterated her support for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's plan to create a €140 billion reparation loan backed by these assets without directly confiscating them.
The assets are mainly deposited with Euroclear, a Brussels-based institution that manages €42.5 trillion in deposits. Euroclear CEO Valérie Urbain warns that direct confiscation is out of the question, emphasising that ‘the most important thing for Euroclear is credibility and trust’.
Belgium has expressed fierce resistance, concerned about becoming the main target of aggressive retaliation by the Kremlin. The Nordic and Baltic countries support the reparation loan scheme. The European Commission provided Ukraine with a new tranche of aid of nearly €6 billion on 13 November.
Implications:
This debate reveals the fundamental tensions between European solidarity with Ukraine, fiscal prudence, fear of Russian retaliation, and legitimate concerns about corruption. Merz's proposal is financially ingenious but politically risky: it allows Europe to claim that it supports Ukraine without directly confiscating Russian assets, which could set dangerous legal precedents for the international financial system.
The resistance from Euroclear and Belgium is understandable from the perspective of global financial system stability. Seizing assets from the central bank of a sovereign state, even an aggressor, would set a precedent that could erode confidence in the European financial system. China, in particular, would be watching any such move carefully given its significant exposure to European and US assets.
The issue of corruption in Ukraine greatly complicates the European narrative. Providing €140 billion to a government with documented problems of systemic corruption raises obvious questions about accountability and the effective use of resources. Critics will legitimately ask whether the management of such funds can be entrusted to those who face allegations of embezzlement.
For Russia, this discussion provides propaganda ammunition about ‘illegal confiscation’ by the ‘thieving West.’ The Kremlin can use this narrative to justify its own seizure of Western assets in Russia and to galvanise support among countries in the Global South that are wary of precedents for freezing sovereign assets.
The timing is crucial. Without an agreement, Europe will face intensified pressure from the United States, which has been critical of what it perceives as an insufficient European contribution to Ukraine's defence. The war is heading into its fourth year with no clear signs of a diplomatic resolution.
Gold: a safe haven amid dollar weakness and the reconfiguration of global reserves
Facts:
Gold reached historic highs in October 2025, briefly touching $4,381 per ounce on 20 October before retreating, marking the first monthly close above $4,000. The metal appreciated 58% in 2025 through 11 November, outperforming virtually all major asset classes.
Driving this sustained rise are expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and, fundamentally, the structural weakness of the US dollar. Demand for gold rose 10% in the first three quarters of 2025, led by strong investment flows and continued purchases by central banks.
The World Bank notes that ‘when uncertainty rises, gold soars.’ Sprott Asset Management describes how investors are moving out of dollar-denominated assets into precious metals, reflecting a ‘debasement trade’ that is expanding as investors rotate into tangible assets to preserve their purchasing power.
Implications:
The rise in gold reflects a fundamental dynamic that transcends current geopolitical tensions: the reconfiguration of central bank reserves in the face of volatility in major safe-haven currencies, especially the dollar. A weak dollar, while lowering the cost of energy and reducing dollar-denominated debt servicing for many countries, simultaneously eroded the real value of international reserves in this currency.
In this scenario, central banks around the world—particularly China—have been buying gold on a massive scale to offset the loss of value of their dollar reserves, as a strategy to protect against systemic risk and the depreciation of the purchasing power of their holdings. Record purchases by central banks since 2022 represent a conscious move towards diversification away from dollar reserves.
This trend is driven both by concerns about Western sanctions (exemplified by the freezing of Russian assets discussed above) and by concerns about US fiscal discipline and the prospects for long-term dollar devaluation. The US's structural fiscal deficits, combined with the implicit monetisation of debt, fuel fundamental doubts about the sustainability of the current monetary architecture.
The phenomenon of ‘debasement trading’ captures a crucial dynamic: institutional investors and high net worth individuals are rebalancing their portfolios towards real assets (gold, silver, real estate) in anticipation of an era of ‘fiscal dominance’. This structural dynamic suggests that the rise of gold is not a cyclical phenomenon, but rather a secular revaluation of tangible assets.
For investors, gold remains an essential hedge against tail risk in portfolios. In an environment where geopolitical risk is high, central banks are reducing their dollar reserves, and fiscal discipline seems absent in major economies, maintaining significant exposure to gold is a measure of basic prudence.
War in Ukraine: Russia maintains the initiative as the conflict approaches 1,000 days
Facts:
The Russian army has captured three additional towns in eastern Ukraine: Gai in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Platonivka in Donetsk and Dvorichanske in Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces report 216 clashes along the entire front line in the last 24 hours.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia carried out 66 air strikes, dropped 164 guided bombs, conducted 4,122 shellings (124 with multiple rocket launchers) and launched 4,082 suicide drones. In Kharkiv, at least three people were killed and 13 wounded after a missile and drone attack.
On Friday, Russia launched one of its largest attacks on Kyiv to date, using 430 drones and 18 missiles, killing six people in the capital. Ukrainian forces carried out a counterattack on the important Russian oil port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, prompting a state of emergency.
Implications:
Russia's continued capture of Ukrainian territory after nearly 1,000 days of war demonstrates that the Western narrative of ‘imminent Russian exhaustion’ has been consistently wrong. The Russian military has adapted its tactics, learning from the catastrophic mistakes of 2022, and now executes a strategy of methodical attrition that prioritises force conservation over spectacular advances.
The Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction remains under intense pressure, with 75 Russian assaults in the last 24 hours. The fall of this urban agglomeration would cut critical logistical lines for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas and represent a major strategic setback.
Russia's massive use of suicide drones (4,082 in a single day) signals the industrialisation of unmanned warfare on an unprecedented scale. Ukraine reports having destroyed 213 Russian UAVs in the last 24 hours, but even this impressive interception rate is insufficient to stop all attacks.
The Ukrainian attack on Russian oil infrastructure in Novorossiysk represents a significant escalation in Kyiv's campaign to damage the Russian war economy. The port is crucial for Russian oil exports, and sustained damage would impact the Kremlin's revenues.
For Europe, the continuation of Russian advances increases the pressure to make difficult decisions about additional military and financial support. The approach of 1,000 days of war with no clear end in sight suggests that Europe must prepare for a prolonged war of attrition. This requires Europe's transition to a war economy, with increased munitions production and strengthening of its own defensive capabilities. Few European capitals seem willing to make these difficult but necessary political investments.
UN Security Council: vote on international force in Gaza
Facts:
The United Nations Security Council will vote on Monday on a draft resolution drafted by the United States that supports the establishment of a Peace Council as a ‘transitional governance administration’ in Gaza and authorises a temporary International Stabilisation Force in the enclave.
The plan was first outlined in the ‘Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict’ that President Trump announced in late September. The first phase of the plan established the current ceasefire. At the time of writing, Hamas had released all living hostages and the remains of most of the deceased.
The United States convened negotiations on 6 November. On 13 November, Russia introduced an alternative text and requested comments by 17 November. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that his government's opposition to Palestinian statehood ‘has not changed one iota.’ Hamas rejected the US proposal on Sunday, calling it ‘dangerous.’
Implications:
This vote represents a watershed moment for US leadership in the Middle East. Trump's plan, ambitious in scope but vague in implementation details, faces simultaneous opposition from Israelis, Palestinians, Russians and Chinese, a coalition of detractors that virtually guarantees severe difficulties even if the resolution passes.
The threat of a veto by Russia or China would leave the plan virtually dead. Russia has presented its own alternative text, signalling that Moscow seeks to sabotage US leadership and position itself as a relevant player. For the Kremlin, the ability to veto the US resolution is a tool to exert pressure in its own negotiations with Washington over Ukraine.
China faces pressure from its population, historically sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, and from its allies in the Global South. The ambiguous wording in the US text about ‘a credible path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood’ provides Beijing with justification for a veto.
Israeli opposition is the most problematic for Washington. Netanyahu has made it unequivocally clear that his government will block any Palestinian state. This stance puts the Trump administration in an impossible position: either pressure its closest ally in the region or admit that the plan is fundamentally unworkable. Hamas' rejection is equally predictable; agreeing to dismantle its arsenal without clear guarantees would be political suicide for the terrorist organisation.
The International Stabilisation Force faces monumental operational challenges. Which countries would contribute troops to a mission in Gaza where they would be attacked both by remnants of Hamas and potentially by extremist elements? None of these questions has been satisfactorily answered.
Final analysis and international media panel
The last 24 hours confirm that 2025 is consolidating itself as the year of accelerated strategic reconfiguration of the international order. The events analysed reveal interconnected patterns of geopolitical fragmentation, weakening of multilateral institutions, rise of political options that challenge the established consensus, and increasing militarisation of multiple theatres.
Editorial convergence
The main international media outlets show clear patterns of coverage:
- Epstein files: Massive and obsessive coverage in the US media (NYT, Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, ABC), reflecting the political exploitation of the case by sectors seeking to destabilise Trump.
- Japanese economy: Technical focus in financial media (CNBC, Financial Times, Reuters, WSJ), with sober analysis of the structural vulnerabilities of the world's fourth largest economy.
- Venezuela: Divergent narratives between Western media, which emphasise drug trafficking, and Ibero-American media, which question Washington's military intentions.
- Chile: Balanced coverage in European and Ibero-American media on electoral polarisation, although with a tendency to incorrectly label Kast as ‘far right’ when he represents a firm and nationalist right.
- Gold: Specialised financial media (Mining.com, Kitco, Economic Times, UBS) offer in-depth technical analysis on the reconfiguration of global reserves.
Significant silences
Editorial silences are as revealing as explicit coverage:
- European media virtually absent in coverage of Venezuela-US tensions, reflecting Europe's strategic disconnect from hemispheric dynamics.
- Little attention from Chinese media to Takaichi's statements on Taiwan, suggesting that Beijing prefers to manage the crisis through diplomatic channels rather than inflame it in the media.
- Russian media showed no visible reaction to European impasses over frozen assets, indicating the Kremlin's calculation that time is on its side as Europe fragments.
- Minimal coverage in Arab media of the US plan for Gaza, reflecting widespread scepticism about the viability of Washington's unilateral initiatives.
Detectable Ideological Biases
Analysis of the 90 media outlets consulted reveals consistent ideological patterns:
Western ‘progressive’ media (The Guardian, Le Monde, CNN): Tendency to label democratically legitimised conservative options as ‘far right’ or ‘ultra-right’, while softening characterisations of communist and radical left forces.
Conservative media (The Telegraph, WSJ, Fox News): Greater balance in the characterisation of political options, with an emphasis on citizens' legitimate concerns about migration, crime and fiscal weakness.
Financial media (Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters): Technically rigorous analysis, but occasionally blind to the political and social dimensions of economic crises.
Media in the Global South (Times of India, Arab News, South China Morning Post): Growing scepticism about Western narratives and greater openness to multipolar perspectives.
Media panel: coverage analysis
High Coverage (8-10 news items covered)
- The Economist: In-depth analysis on Japan, gold, China and Africa, with a long-term strategic focus.
- NYT: Broad coverage with a visible progressive bias in the characterisation of political actors.
- Financial Times: Excellent economic analysis, weak on cultural and social dimensions.
- Reuters/AFP/AP: Broad factual coverage; international agencies maintain professional standards.
Medium Coverage (5-7 news items covered)
- Washington Post: Emphasis on US politics, less attention to non-Western dynamics.
- BBC/CNN: Global coverage, but with a tendency to reproduce official Western narratives of a progressive nature.
- Al Jazeera: Strong in the Middle East, weak in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
- The Guardian: Obvious progressive bias, selective coverage favouring left-wing narratives.
Low Coverage (1-4 news items covered)
- Regional Arab media (Al-Hayat, Al-Riyadh, Peninsula Qatar): Almost exclusive focus on the Middle East, minimal attention to other regions.
- Russian media (TASS, RT, Vesti): Domestic propaganda with minimal objective coverage of global events.
- Specialised Asian media (Yomiuri Shimbun, Straits Times): Excellent in their regions, weak in global coverage.
- Ibero-American media (Clarín, El Mercurio, Reforma): Regional focus with insufficient global geopolitical context.
Glaring absences and silences
Multiple media outlets requested presented insufficient content, behind paywalls or with an exclusively domestic focus: L'Observatore Romano, Libération, several specialised Arab media outlets, Ukrainian media and Gulf media. This fragmentation of information reflects the balkanisation of the global media ecosystem.