Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 24 October
- Trump's Asian tour: Investments, tariffs and the summit with Xi Jinping
- Suffocating Russia: US sanctions Rosneft and Lukoil; China and India suspend purchases
- The ‘war on drugs’: Semantic debate, military implications in Venezuela
- European summit: Support for Kiev, but Belgian veto on Russian assets
- Washington-Jerusalem tension: Vance warns, Rubio redirects
- Definitive breakdown of US-Canada trade negotiations
- Trump's frontal criticism of Spain for its lack of commitment to NATO
- Historic visit by Charles III to the Vatican: Joint prayer with Pope Leo XIV
- Media Rack – Trends
- Editorial conclusion
Trump's Asian tour: Investments, tariffs and the summit with Xi Jinping
Facts:
Next week, President Trump will begin a highly significant official visit to Japan and South Korea. The stated economic objective is to promote massive investment in the US, derived from previous commitments by Japan ($550 billion) and South Korea ($350 billion), in exchange for a tariff reduction from 25% to 15%.
However, the details have yet to be finalised. The focal point of the tour will be a direct meeting with Xi Jinping in Seoul, designed to try to curb China's regional expansionism and, above all, to seek a trade agreement that will ease the tension of the tariff war. Asian markets have reacted positively to the prospect of a trade readjustment.
Implications:
This is a classic diplomatic manoeuvre, where security and trade are intertwined under the ‘America First’ doctrine. Washington is using tariffs as leverage to attract allied capital and counter Chinese manufacturing hegemony. However, this pressure forces Japan and South Korea into a precarious balance: prioritising the short-term economic gains demanded by Trump could weaken them strategically against Beijing. The move forces China to abandon its rhetoric and delaying tactics, but if the investment agreements do not materialise, the results of the tour risk being diluted.
Suffocating Russia: US sanctions Rosneft and Lukoil; China and India suspend purchases
Facts:
The Trump administration has reversed any previous openness and is drastically tightening sanctions against Moscow, striking at the heart of its energy industry by sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision follows the cancellation of a planned summit with Putin in Budapest.
The impact has been immediate: Chinese state oil giants (PetroChina, Sinopec) and Indian refineries have abruptly suspended their purchases of Russian crude oil due to the risk of secondary sanctions.
Implications:
This is a welcome crackdown on Russian expansionism. Russia is on the brink of an energy default, suffocated by the financial siege. The Moscow-Beijing energy alliance, which is fundamental to the Kremlin, is structurally weakened.
This blow erodes Putin's war machine, but it means an inevitable rise in global oil prices and a reconfiguration of energy flows that will benefit the Middle East. For China and India, it is a dilemma between the stability of their supplies and loyalty to Moscow, demonstrating that energy dependence is a double-edged sword.
The ‘war on drugs’: Semantic debate, military implications in Venezuela
Facts:
Trump has toughened his rhetoric, turning the ‘war on drugs’ into a real military operation, defending lethal strikes without a formal declaration of war. Operations are spreading to land and air, with reports of a B-1 bomber flying near Caracas. Maduro's dictatorship, which accuses the US of provocation, has responded by mobilising Russian missiles.
Implications:
The controversy over the legality of the ‘declaration of war’ is artificial and semantic, not legal; Congress was never asked for authorisation to wage ‘the war on terror’ against Al Qaeda, ISIS or the Houthis. However, although the strategy to dismantle cartels is bold, it will be a much more complex task than operations against traffickers.
To begin with, regimes such as Venezuela's, which are themselves drug cartels, must be stifled. In the US, there has never been, until now, any controversy over military intervention against non-state networks (global terrorism or Colombian cartels), so it is absurd that it should arise now. The war on terror and against drug cartels does NOT require congressional authorisation, as no one is being declared war on, unless it is against Venezuela, which will not happen.
European summit: Support for Kiev, but Belgian veto on Russian assets
Facts:
At the summit of EU leaders with Volodymyr Zelensky, support for Kiev was reaffirmed. However, the plan to use the €140 billion in Russian assets frozen in Euroclear (Belgium) was postponed. Belgian Prime Minister De Wever put the brakes on the plan, demanding legal and financial guarantees. Zelensky urged for funds by 2026, while the EU approved separate sanctions against Russian gas from 2027.
Implications:
This Belgian hesitation exposes the real cracks in European solidarity. It is a tactical victory for Belgium, which defends its legal rigour and the stability of its financial system, but it is an unacceptable paralysis that weakens the front against Russia. Bureaucracy must not take precedence over the moral urgency of defending Ukraine. The delay erodes the EU's credibility with Kiev, which is receiving symbolic support but not the funds it needs to sustain the war effort.
Washington-Jerusalem tension: Vance warns, Rubio redirects
Facts:
The Israeli Knesset passed a preliminary vote to move forward with the annexation of the West Bank. Washington's reaction was forceful: Vice President JD Vance called the move a ‘stupid stunt’ and ‘insulting’ to the peace process. Immediately afterwards, Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelled to Jerusalem to meet with Netanyahu, reinforce the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and reiterate that the peace plan is Trump's ‘absolute priority’ and that the annexation of the West Bank is ‘unacceptable to the US’.
Implications:
This is Washington's most severe warning to any Israeli government since its birth as a state in 1948. The annexation vote marks a definitive break with the two-state solution. The White House has coordinated this reaction, which has been confirmed by Trump himself from Washington, saying: ‘Don't worry about the West Bank, annexation will never happen.’
Vance sets the red line; support is not unconditional. No president before Trump had dared to reprimand the Israeli prime minister in private, much less in front of the world's media. On the other hand, Marco Rubio's message underscores Trump's unequivocal commitment to the peace plan for Gaza, under the doctrine of ‘peace through strength’.
Definitive breakdown of US-Canada trade negotiations
Facts:
Trump announced the unilateral closure and definitive breakdown of bilateral trade negotiations with Canada, citing ‘interference and national security.’ The relationship was already damaged by 25% tariffs imposed in March. The breakdown freezes the institutional relationship and pushes Canada to deepen ties with Mexico.
Implications:
The tariff war is a serious mistake, as history has shown. Recall the tariff war launched by President Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) that turned the economic recession of 1929 into a global depression. Tariff wars depress global trade, fragment the North American bloc and weaken Western cohesion in the face of rivals such as China.
Although Washington is prioritising its protectionist agenda and demonstrating its ability to impose conditions, this ‘shock tactic’ encourages isolationism and harms interdependent economies. In the short term, it causes a serious disruption in the value chains and supply chains of industries that are key to the global economy, such as the automotive, aeronautical and pharmaceutical industries, among many others.
Trump's frontal criticism of Spain for its lack of commitment to NATO
Facts:
During his meeting in the Oval Office with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump lashed out at Spain's ‘lack of seriousness’ and ‘solidarity’. He accused Spain of failing to meet its commitments, threatening tariffs for not reaching the spending target (with reports citing a demand for 5% of GDP, compared to the current 1.3%). Rutte, in a gesture of tacit alignment, avoided contradicting the president.
Implications:
This rebuke is a justified call for allied responsibility; Spain must increase its contribution to maintain collective credibility. However, the aggressive rhetoric and Rutte's silence turn the criticism into a disciplinary warning that damages Spain's international image. It exposes Atlantic divisions that benefit Russia and sows resentment, although it reinforces spending discipline in the Alliance.
Historic visit by Charles III to the Vatican: Joint prayer with Pope Leo XIV
Facts:
In an unprecedented gesture in 500 years, since the Reformation, Charles III, as supreme governor of the Anglican Church, prayed alongside Pope Leo XIV in the Sistine Chapel. The visit, on which he was accompanied by Queen Camilla, had been postponed following the death of Pope Francis.
Implications:
This ecumenical gesture transcends the symbolic and acts as a balm in times of division. It dismantles old clichés of religious and political distance. At a time of global fragmentation, it is a message of moral unity in the West and a step towards healing historical wounds. It also reflects British diplomatic maturity in the post-Brexit era, using the monarchy as a moral anchor and soft power.
Media Rack – Trends
US (Reuters, AP, CNN, The Economist, Politico)
- Asian tour, Russian sanctions, ‘war on drugs’.
- Unanimous agreement that Trump combines hard power and opportunistic diplomacy.
Europe (FT, Euronews, BBC, Le Monde, Die Welt)
- Debate on Russian assets and EU leadership.
- Europe united in substance, divided in form.
Asia (CNBC, Nikkei, SCMP)
- Market optimism over Trump-Xi meeting.
- Expectations of a partial trade truce.
Middle East (Euronews, FT, Israel Hayom, Al Arabiya)
- Tensions after the Knesset vote.
- Confusion over Vance's tone, relief over Rubio's trip.
Vatican and United Kingdom (Euronews, L'Osservatore Romano)
- Historic spiritual encounter.
- An event of ecumenical and geopolitical significance.
Editorial conclusion
The day shows that Trump's global strategy is not improvised, but rather a doctrine of multiple pressure: energy, trade and diplomacy in the service of national interests. Europe hesitates, Asia adapts and the Middle East vacillates, but Washington continues to set the pace. The challenge for its allies will be to find their place on the global geopolitical stage. Europe is becoming increasingly blurred, as today's meeting in London highlights. We are in reactive mode, not proactive mode.