Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 27 October 2025
- Trump's Asian tour and international debut of Japan's ‘Iron Lady’
- ‘Purple tide’ in Buenos Aires: Milei sweeps to victory and calls for a reformist mandate
- US–China: Bessent achieves a ‘positive framework’ and unblocks rare earths
- Clash with Canada: 10% additional tariff and row over a video featuring Reagan
- India under pressure: sanctions on Russian crude oil and blow to Ambani
- Caracas raises the tone: rhetoric of a narco-kleptocracy
- Thailand–Cambodia: extended ceasefire with Trump as witness
- Sudan: the RSF's machine of barbarism continues unabated
- Media Rack – Trends
- Editorial conclusion
Trump's Asian tour and international debut of Japan's ‘Iron Lady’
Facts:
Donald Trump begins a strategically charged tour of Asia. In Tokyo, at Akasaka Palace, he will hold his first meeting with Sanae Takaichi, Japan's newly elected prime minister. Takaichi, considered a pragmatic conservative and heir to Shinzo Abe's diplomatic legacy, has emphasised that her foreign policy priority is to strengthen the alliance with the US (Indo-Pacific). There was already direct contact and coordination prior to the meeting, in which Washington insisted on an increase in Japan's military budget and greater strategic alignment. Regional markets have reacted positively.
Implications:
Tokyo aligns itself with Washington on deterrence against China and technological autonomy. Japan faces the dilemma of maintaining strategic deference to Washington without sacrificing its autonomy. We will see more defence spending, friend-shoring supply chains (relocation to allied countries) and missile coordination. Takaichi, who could leverage Abe's ties to advance the American agenda, arrives with a strong profile and limited political space: she will need early successes with Trump to consolidate her position at home.
‘Purple tide’ in Buenos Aires: Milei sweeps to victory and calls for a reformist mandate
Facts:
La Libertad Avanza won a resounding legislative victory that strengthens Javier Milei, although without an absolute majority. This triumph contrasts sharply with the biased anti-Milei coverage of influential Western media outlets that took his crushing defeat in the 26 October elections for granted and have had to rectify their position. The most notable cases are CNN and the BBC, which have kept Milei's victory as the top story in their bulletins throughout the night, as if trying to make up for their serious ethical and professional slip-up. Meanwhile, Argentine assets are poised for a rally and Washington is backing the liberal shift. Trump and his team are linking a $20 billion financial and trade support package to the continuity and legislative success of the reform programme.
Implications:
Peronism is on the defensive. The victory marks the beginning of an orthodox shift, with a predictable fiscal adjustment and geopolitical alignment with Washington. In the region, Brazil and Mexico will calibrate their relationship with a more pro-market Argentina. If Milei manages to reach an agreement with the centre, he will accelerate reforms, privatisations and energy liberalisation (Vaca Muerta), with an impact on gas and LNG in the Southern Cone.
US–China: Bessent achieves a ‘positive framework’ and unblocks rare earths
Facts:
The highly effective and discreet US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, announced a ‘positive framework’ of understanding with China. The agreement centres on Beijing lifting restrictions on rare earth exports to the US, Washington deactivating 100% tariffs, more Chinese soybean purchases and anti-drug cooperation (fentanyl). It is up to Trump and Xi to decide at their upcoming summit.
Implications:
If consolidated, it will ease industrial tensions in semiconductors, defence and electric vehicles, removing the spectre of tariffs of up to 157%. It is an instrumental truce, not a reconciliation: strategic mistrust persists and Western ‘de-risking’ will not stop.
Clash with Canada: 10% additional tariff and row over a video featuring Reagan
Facts:
Trump raised tariffs on Canada by 10% following an announcement by the Ontario provincial government that it was reviving a speech by Reagan against protectionism. The gesture, described as ‘manipulation’ by the Reagan Foundation (which pointed out the omission of the justification for exceptional tariffs against Japan in 1987), froze contacts for a trade de-escalation.
Implications:
The US shows willingness to use ideological history as a tariff weapon. US companies will see cross-border components become more expensive; the USMCA (T-MEC) automotive and agri-food ecosystem is under strain. Ottawa will seek sectoral shields and litigate if the blow becomes chronic.
India under pressure: sanctions on Russian crude oil and blow to Ambani
Facts:
After sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil, Washington activated a 25% surcharge on Indian products linked to Russian crude oil purchases; large refineries anticipate a collapse in flows from Russia. The Indian government promises to ‘protect farmers’ in the face of the agricultural opening demanded by the US (especially in corn and soybeans).
Implications:
Risk of higher costs for fertilisers, diesel and rural logistics. Sectors such as textiles, jewellery and pharmaceuticals are also suffering, with a notable impact on carpet manufacturing in villages in northern India and on the technology industry. It also deals a severe blow to the country's leading economic group, owned by tycoon Mukesh Ambani, who is said to be the largest buyer of Russian oil. New Delhi will negotiate tariff reductions and transitional phases: the rural vote rules.
Caracas raises the tone: rhetoric of a narco-kleptocracy
Facts:
Nicolás Maduro and his prosecutor, Tarek William Saab, are stepping up anti-American propaganda following blows to drug-trafficking boats and new international allegations. They speak of ‘crimes against humanity’ and plots to overthrow the regime, while Washington admits to covert operations against the drug regime's infrastructure. The repressive spiral continues.
Implications:
Chavismo seeks to unite its base with rhetoric of siege and criminalises dissent. This propaganda acts as a facade for what is, in practice, a mega mafia organisation with state structure and resources, which finances itself and profits from drug trafficking and illegal mining of gold and other valuable raw materials. There are suspicions of illegal and uncontrolled sales of uranium to Iran, as well as the sale of oil outside regulated channels, in violation of international sanctions. Increased risk of personal sanctions; the diaspora will continue to be the ‘lifeblood’ of the regime's survival.
Thailand–Cambodia: extended ceasefire with Trump as witness
Facts:
Bangkok and Phnom Penh formalised an extended ceasefire in Kuala Lumpur following border clashes in the summer. Malaysian mediation and US trade leverage proved decisive. The agreement was presided over by Trump, consolidating a diplomatic victory for Washington at the ASEAN summit.
Implications:
The stabilisation reinforces the US's image as a guarantor of security in Southeast Asia, regaining leadership over China. If a credible verification mechanism is put in place, the border corridor can reopen and the tourism industry will breathe a sigh of relief. It is a fragile peace: mines, local militias and nationalist rhetoric could blow up the truce.
Sudan: the RSF's machine of barbarism continues unabated
Facts:
Recent reports confirm sieges, mass displacement and systematic attacks on civilians — centred on El-Fasher and massacres in North Kordofan (nearly 300 dead) — in a war that is already the world's largest displacement crisis. The UN and the US have described the acts as war crimes and genocide.
Implications:
International indifference highlights the collapse of humanitarian response mechanisms. Without coordinated pressure (AU, Arab League, EU and US) and without cutting off the flow of weapons and blood gold, the RSF will consolidate areas of mafia control. Humanitarian corridors and a robust observation mandate are urgently needed.
Media Rack – Trends
US (NYT, WaPo, The Guardian)
Focus on the US-China ‘framework’ and Trump's visit to Asia; Guardian adds the clash with Canada over Ontario's announcement.
Europe (WSJ, Financial Times)
Pro-market reading of Milei's victory and asset reaction; implications of rare earths in industrial chains.
International agencies (Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera)
Solid cables on Takaichi, the Thai-Cambodian ceasefire and trade progress with China; AP outlines the historic milestone of the new prime minister.
The Economist (World in Brief)
Quick summary: Milei wins; US-China ‘positive framework’.
Asia (Times of India, Reuters India)
Tension over tariffs and effects on farmers; domestic political risk for Modi.
Latin America and the Middle East (ANADOLU, Newsweek)
Chavista verbal escalation and siege narrative; echo of US maritime actions.
Editorial conclusion
The West must simultaneously maintain diplomatic, economic and moral pressure (what I have called ‘multiple pressure’) on dictatorships and revisionist actors, while at the same time opening space for partial agreements that reduce systemic tension. Real diplomacy and the use of hard power are returning to the forefront. The Washington-Tokyo alliance is now setting the pace in the Indo-Pacific; the consolidation of the Trump-Milei axis in Buenos Aires offers a window for a laboratory of reforms; and New Delhi faces a crossroads: protecting its camp without being left out of the largest free trade area on the planet.