Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 4 November 2025
- Peru-Mexico break in relations over asylum for Betssy Chávez
- Conclave of Muslim powers in Istanbul on the future of Gaza
- Exchange of remains under the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire
- Correction in safe-haven assets: gold, silver and bitcoin
- Visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington
- Semiconductor shortage hits key European industry
- Multi-year strategic agreement between OpenAI and Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- War in Ukraine: Russian pressure on Pokrovsk and attacks on the power grid
- US military build-up in the Caribbean region
- Key elections in the US: New York and Trump's influence
- India's victory in women's cricket and its social impact
- New earthquake strikes Afghanistan
- Political crisis and protests in Serbia
- Ecological phenomenon in Mexico: killer whales hunting white sharks
- Media rack (trend analysis)
- Editorial note
Peru-Mexico break in relations over asylum for Betssy Chávez
Facts:
The Peruvian government, through its Foreign Ministry headed by Hugo de Zela, announced the severing of diplomatic relations with Mexico. The direct cause is the asylum granted at the Mexican embassy in Lima to former Prime Minister Betssy Chávez, who is under investigation for her alleged complicity in the attempted coup d'état perpetrated by Pedro Castillo in 2022.
Lima invoked repeated ‘interference’ in its internal affairs and proceeded to expel the head of the Mexican embassy, maintaining only consular ties. Mexico, for its part, defended the granting of asylum as an act in accordance with international and humanitarian law, ignoring the fact that she is a coup leader wanted by the Peruvian justice system.
Implications:
A serious Andean rift is materialising, exacerbating existing tensions in Latin America. Political asylum is being used as a diplomatic weapon, setting an uncomfortable precedent for the region: if asylum is used as a shield against ordinary criminal proceedings, the clash between the principle of ‘sovereignty’ and the ‘right of asylum’ will become endemic.
Lima will seek to strengthen alliances with governments that support its position in multilateral forums (OAS and CELAC), while the Mexican opposition will present the case as an ideological gesture by its government rather than a legal one. This rift weakens regional unity, exposes vulnerabilities to the influence of extra-regional powers (such as the United States or China) and threatens to have commercial, consular and migration cooperation costs.
Conclave of Muslim powers in Istanbul on the future of Gaza
Facts:
Turkey coordinated a high-level ministerial meeting in Istanbul with key Muslim powers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan. The aim was to discuss the Palestinian administration of Gaza in the post-ceasefire scenario.
The joint communiqué calls for clear ‘Palestinian leadership’ in the post-war period, with the establishment of local security forces, and explicitly rejects external intervention. It also denounced violations of the ceasefire by Israel.
Implications:
Ankara seeks to consolidate its position as the indispensable diplomatic pivot of the Sunni world, aspiring to ‘shape’ the ‘day after’ in Gaza and displacing the initiative of Western actors. Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi maintain tactical coordination so as not to cede political capital to Iran.
This effort to rebalance power in the Middle East, countering Western and Israeli influences, seeks Muslim autonomy. If this front coalesces, it will increase pressure on Washington and Brussels to secure humanitarian corridors and schedule a renewed Palestinian authority, although it exposes Turkey as a potentially volatile pivot on the regional chessboard.
Exchange of remains under the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire
Facts:
Hamas handed over to Israel, through the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the bodies of three Israeli hostages found in tunnels in southern Gaza: Colonel Asaf Hamami, Sergeant Oz Daniel and Captain Omer Neutra.
For its part, Israel returned 45 Palestinian bodies. This exchange is part of the truce agreement in force since 10 October. According to reports, eight hostage bodies remain to be handed over. Although minor violations have been reported, the cessation of hostilities remains in place.
Implications:
This grim funeral exchange, however difficult it may be, strengthens the technical channels of communication (via the ICRC) and consolidates a precarious truce, offering humanitarian respite. It may pave the way for the verification of lists of living and missing hostages.
If it stabilises, it will allow for the expansion of humanitarian aid and the discussion of a ‘Palestinian-led security scheme with regional guarantees,’ as promoted by the Turkey-Gulf axis. However, the situation is extremely fragile: any incident involving civilian casualties could derail the process and perpetuate the cycle of violence.
Correction in safe-haven assets: gold, silver and bitcoin
Facts:
Safe-haven assets are showing volatility after a strong October. Gold is retreating after reaching a record high of $4,350 per ounce (accumulating a 55% increase in 2025), correcting below $4,000/oz. Silver and platinum are also falling.
Bitcoin (BTC), which shows a correlation of 0.85 with gold but lags behind by 15% annually, falls ~2-3% in 24 hours. The dollar remains firm and the market lowers the probability of an additional Fed rate cut in December.
Implications:
Profit-taking suggests less immediate anxiety about the ‘tariff war’ and the situation in the Middle East. This flight to stability reveals deep global uncertainty in the face of fiat currency devaluation.
Although criticisable for speculation that can amplify inequalities, the floor for these assets remains high: a geopolitical or macroeconomic scare is enough to reactivate purchases. For public treasuries and sovereign wealth funds, gold remains the systemic risk policy; crypto-beta (Bitcoin) remains hypersensitive to interest rates and the growth narrative.
Visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington
Facts:
The White House confirmed the official visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to Washington on 18 and 19 November to meet with President Trump. The agenda focuses on energy, regional security, post-truce Arab-Israeli normalisation and industrial cooperation. The visit follows previous Saudi investments in the US, valued at $600 billion.
Implications:
Riyadh seeks to shield its ‘strategic autonomy’ (oil, refining, air defence and power chips) and reposition its strategic role. For Trump, the meeting is a lever for geopolitical spectacle and for ‘re-anchoring’ the Gulf against Iran and China.
This strengthening of the Gulf-US axis seeks to enhance the role of Arab countries, although it has drawn criticism for its handling of human rights. If there are concrete gestures on Yemen and Gaza, the path will be reopened for a US-led regional security architecture, with less rhetoric and more contracts, strengthening pragmatic alliances.
Semiconductor shortage hits key European industry
Facts:
The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) warns of production stoppages due to critical bottlenecks linked to the crisis at Nexperia (a Chinese subsidiary under Dutch control due to pressure from the US) and Asian restrictions. Manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are affected. The German group ZF plans to temporarily lay off workers in Schweinfurt due to a lack of chips. The impact on suppliers is estimated to last a week, with extensions of 20 days.
Implications:
Europe is paying the price for its dependence and for not having ‘reshored’ mid-range chips that support electric cars and industrial electronics in time. This vulnerability to trade wars requires a committed response. The European Chip Pact will have to accelerate with more capital investment (CAPEX), supply clauses and coordinated purchasing.
China retains leverage in niche materials and test packaging. Member States with industrial clusters (Germany, France, Italy) will push for more flexible state aid to boost local innovation and diversify supplies.
Multi-year strategic agreement between OpenAI and Amazon Web Services (AWS)
Facts:
OpenAI signed a strategic agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) valued at approximately $38 billion over a seven-year period. The agreement gives OpenAI access to hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs to scale its AI training workloads on Amazon's cloud. This is a significant shift after years of Azure (Microsoft) dominance, breaking the de facto exclusivity and expanding its capacity until 2026.
Implications:
The race for ‘cutting-edge technology sovereignty’ (compute) is entering a multi-cloud phase. OpenAI is diversifying suppliers and putting downward pressure on infrastructure and macro GPU prices. For Europe, the message is clear: without its own data centres and semiconductors, it will be a captive customer. Although Microsoft retains a central role, it loses exclusivity.
Amazon gains traction against Google and Oracle. This pact accelerates a technological race that, while it may democratise knowledge, is criticised for concentrating power in tech giants and increasing the risks of a bubble if the Artificial Intelligence market were to burst.
War in Ukraine: Russian pressure on Pokrovsk and attacks on the power grid
Facts:
Moscow claims to have made tactical advances in the industrial areas of Pokrovsk, while Kyiv insists it is holding its positions. At the same time, a wave of Russian attacks on military and energy infrastructure has left the Donetsk region without power, forcing Ukraine to increase its electricity imports. The EU promises financial support but remains divided on the use of frozen Russian assets.
Implications:
If Russia consolidates Pokrovsk, it will open a crucial operational window onto the Donbas logistics hub. For Ukraine, defending its energy grid is now as crucial as the land front. Russia's goal is to ‘shut down’ the country in winter, eroding the economy and wearing down the population. In Brussels, the leverage of Russian assets will determine the pace of ammunition supplies and reconstruction funding.
US military build-up in the Caribbean region
Facts:
There are reports of an increased US military presence in the region, citing threats from Venezuela. Analysts point out that these manoeuvres could be intended to influence Cuba, in a context of political crisis in Tanzania and a possible government shutdown in Washington.
Implications:
This escalation reflects an interventionism that undermines Latin American sovereignty, repeating historical mistakes. It generates a heated debate on hemispheric security and creates a risk of conflict that could seriously destabilise the region, requiring rational diplomacy to avoid unnecessary confrontations.
Key elections in the US: New York and Trump's influence
Facts:
New York City faces crucial elections, with the debate centred on whether voters will demand a more marked political shift to the left. At the same time, the Democratic governors of New Jersey and Virginia have made opposition to President Trump the central focus of their campaigns.
Implications:
There is persistent polarisation among the US electorate, with a radicalisation of the main Democratic Party candidates, the self-styled ‘democratic socialists’, many of whom are Marxists. Democratic candidate Zohran MAMDANI has openly and actively declared himself to be anti-capitalist. This is absurd in the city with the most wealthy people in the world, who are a major part of its economy. New York City has a higher GDP than Italy.
A favourable outcome for the Democratic candidates in these states could recalibrate the federal balance and certainly fuel the current legislative confrontation in Washington.
India's victory in women's cricket and its social impact
Facts:
India's women's cricket team won the world title for the first time.
Implications:
This sporting achievement has catalysed unprecedented public recognition of the role of women in Indian national sport. The success intensifies the social debate on equality and female representation in India, empowering emerging leaders who are beginning to challenge traditional social and cultural norms.
New earthquake strikes Afghanistan
Facts:
A 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck northern Afghanistan. Initial reports put the death toll at at least 20 and report significant damage to infrastructure, including the historic Blue Mosque.
Implications:
The disaster adds extreme humanitarian pressure to an area already hit by deep political instability and chronic economic precariousness. International organisations have activated alerts to manage the emergency, while the local government is visibly overwhelmed by the magnitude of the crisis.
Political crisis and protests in Serbia
Facts:
Serbian police arrested 37 protesters after serious clashes between the opposition and supporters of President Aleksandar Vucic. The protests coincide with the anniversary of the collapse of a railway station canopy that killed 16 people.
Implications:
There is a dangerous escalation of social tensions, with a clear risk of institutional repression and possible contagion to other Balkan states. The European Union is watching the democratic deterioration in the region with deep concern, a situation that is testing its mediation capabilities and influence in its immediate periphery.
Ecological phenomenon in Mexico: killer whales hunting white sharks
Facts:
In the Gulf of California, a group of orcas has been documented repeatedly preying on juvenile white sharks. Scientific reports indicate that the orcas seek the sharks' livers as their main source of nutrition.
Implications:
Beyond scientific observation, this phenomenon could significantly alter the marine ecological balance in the area. Furthermore, it could have direct consequences for environmental tourism, a key source of income for the region, and opens up a new front of research on migratory patterns and animal adaptation to changes in their ecosystems.
Media rack (trend analysis)
US media (NYT, WaPo, WSJ, CNN, Fox News, Politico): Focused on domestic implications. MBS's visit is seen by the WSJ as a commercial opportunity, while Fox News criticises Mexican ‘interference’ in Peru as a sign of hemispheric weakness on the part of the White House. NYT and CNBC prioritise the chip shortage as an industrial threat and the correction in gold.
British media (The Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian, BBC, The Economist): Highlight global risks. The Guardian and BBC prioritise the exchange of remains in Gaza as a fragile humanitarian victory. The Economist analyses the adjustments in gold/Bitcoin as a sign of structural economic instability.
European media (Le Monde, Le Figaro, FAZ, Die Welt, Corriere): Focus on continental vulnerability. FAZ and Die Welt push the agenda of industrial ‘rearmament’ and ‘made in Europe’ chips. Le Monde follows the Istanbul summit and the rift in Latin America as echoes of global divisions.
Arab and Muslim media (Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya, Arab News, Asharq Al-Awsat): They celebrate the Istanbul summit as a gesture of Islamic unity and Sunni coordination for the ‘day after’. Al-Jazeera emphasises Palestinian autonomy, while Arab News and Asharq Al-Awsat prepare for MBS's visit to Washington as a key geopolitical pivot.
Israeli media (Jerusalem Post, Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth): Focused on Gaza. Jerusalem Post sees the handover of bodies as partial compliance, but warns of violations of the truce. Haaretz is critical of the internal management of the crisis.
Asian media (SCMP, China Daily, Times of India, WION): China Daily defends its chip production in the face of restrictions. Times of India and WION analyse the volatility of safe havens (gold/crypto) in the context of US-China tensions.
Russian and Ukrainian media (RT, TASS, Ukrainian Pravda, Kyiv Post): RT highlights the Peru-Mexico rift as a failure of Western diplomacy. Ukrainian Pravda and Reuters maintain their focus on Pokrovsk and Russia's strategy to ‘shut down’ Ukraine in winter.
Latin American media (Clarín, El Mercurio, Reforma): Clarín is critical of Mexican asylum, calling it intervention. Reforma analyses the impact of chip shortages on the Mexican automotive industry.
Technology/Business (Reuters, The Verge, Amazon Blog): The OpenAI-AWS alliance is confirmed, opening the debate on computing hegemony, the ‘GPU war’ and pressure on training costs.
Editorial note
First, the fragmentation of regional blocs: the Peru-Mexico rift demonstrates the profound weakness of Pan-American institutions, which yield to ideological interventionism, especially from the hard left, such as the Mexican government.
Second, the strategic vulnerability of the West: OpenAI's shift towards AWS confirms that technological dependence and ‘technological sovereignty’ are the new battleground, while Europe pays for its lack of autonomy in semiconductors with industrial stoppages.
Third, realism in the Middle East: the Istanbul summit and MBS's visit to Washington show that regional actors (Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan) are gaining geopolitical weight and actively shaping the post-war scenario, displacing an increasingly irrelevant Europe.
Finally, in Ukraine, Russia's goal of ‘shutting down’ the country in winter requires urgent combined responses: air defence, distributed generation and stable financing from the EU, probably through the use of frozen Russian assets.