Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 5 November 2025
- Zohran Mamdani wins New York City mayoral election
- Death of Dick Cheney and the legacy of interventionism
- Norway rejects Elon Musk's pay package
- Seeking repeal of sanctions on Syria
- Trinidad and Tobago's support for Trump against Venezuela
- Democratic victory in New Jersey with Mikie Sherrill
- Abigail Spanberger wins the governorship in Virginia
- Approval of Gerrymandering Proposal in California
- Europe and immigration: new legal setback in Italy
- Global financial concern: European banks in stock market crash
- Environmental crisis: record pollution in India
- EU enlargement: praise for Ukraine, serious warnings for Serbia and Georgia
- Energy in Europe: Germany's gas boom puts pressure on reserves
- Economic diplomacy: HM King Felipe VI to travel to China
- Palantir falls after Michael Burry's short bets
- Analysis by region and by media
- Editorial note
Zohran Mamdani wins New York City mayoral election
Facts:
Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed anti-capitalist Marxist socialist, although a member of the Democratic Party, aged 34, has won the New York City mayoral election in a landslide victory. He will be the city's youngest mayor and first Muslim. Voter turnout exceeded 2 million votes, the highest in decades (compared to 1.2 million in 2021).
His radical platform includes free buses, limits on the police, higher taxes and stricter rent control. In response, President Trump, who backed Cuomo, has threatened to cut federal funding to the city.
Implications:
This radical change represents the emergence of a hard left that could push for far-left policies, risking an exodus of capital and talent. The WSJ analysis warns that this will exacerbate post-Bloomberg urban decline. Moderate Democrats must balance the hopes of their base with pragmatism to prevent the party from being defined by its radical left flank.
Death of Dick Cheney and the legacy of interventionism
Facts:
Dick Cheney, former US Vice President (2001-2009) and a key figure in four Republican administrations, died at the age of 84 from pneumonia and heart disease. He was the architect of the post-9/11 war on terror, defended the invasion of Iraq and promoted the 2007 troop surge, persuading President Bush against the consensus for withdrawal and rescuing the war from a ‘Vietnam-style defeat’.
Implications:
His death closes an era of hawkishness (a hard line on security issues) that was intended to protect the US and the West, though not always successfully. Analysis of his legacy has reignited criticism of interventionism and the expansion of executive powers.
A review of Dick Cheney's career and ideological positions forces the Republican Party to debate its identity between neoconservatism and the diverse souls of the MAGA movement, one of which advocates isolationism. It is urgent to learn from recent history in order to strengthen defences against the serious threats facing the West, but without repeating the strategic mistakes of the past.
Norway rejects Elon Musk's pay package
Facts:
Norway's sovereign wealth fund (NBIM), which manages $1.9 trillion (US dollars), has announced that it will vote against Elon Musk's remuneration package at Tesla, valued at $1 trillion. The rejection is based on size, share dilution and key person risk, despite recognising the value created by Musk. Tesla will announce its results on Thursday.
Implications:
This signals growing scrutiny of corporate governance at tech giants. The move may moderate future excesses in the industry, promoting a more balanced model that rewards innovation without unfairly diluting institutional and minority shareholders.
Seeking repeal of sanctions on Syria
Facts:
The Trump administration is pushing for the repeal of the 2019 sanctions law against Syria, seeking to facilitate post-civil war reconstruction. This comes ahead of a scheduled summit between Trump and Syria's new leader, Farouk al-Sharaa, a former terrorist leader who overthrew Assad in 2024. The Senate has approved the measure, but the House of Representatives is cautious.
Implications:
The move could be a step towards stabilising the region and (according to the prestigious Lebanese newspaper L'Orient Le Jour) neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, but it risks legitimising dangerous actors, as warned by Israeli media (such as the centre-left newspaper Haaretz). Aid must be strictly conditional on democratic reforms to prevent the empowerment of extremism or the consolidation of Iranian and Russian influence.
Trinidad and Tobago's support for Trump against Venezuela
Facts:
Trinidad and Tobago's Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has offered full support for Trump's hard line against the Venezuelan regime. This includes hosting US warships, applauding air strikes against drug-trafficking boats and allowing operations in its waters, declaring ‘kill them all violently’.
Implications:
This alliance strengthens hemispheric containment against Maduro's dictatorship, fracturing regional consensus. Although it raises tensions, this committed and pragmatic alliance allows Washington to gain strategic depth. Caracas is expected to respond by using its oil leverage to try to break this new front.
Democratic victory in New Jersey with Mikie Sherrill
Facts:
In the state elections, Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the New Jersey gubernatorial election by a landslide, defying predictions of a technical tie.
Implications:
This victory strengthens Democratic control in the northeast of the country and indicates a possible underestimation of the mobilisation of its base in the polls.
New Jersey has a more moderate Democratic Party than Mamdani or Alejandra Ocasio-Cortez and therefore has not scared off the more moderate electorate. The mobilisation of centrist Democrats in New Jersey is much more significant than the polls had predicted.
Abigail Spanberger wins the governorship in Virginia
Facts:
Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the race for governor in Virginia, reversing the Republican majority in a state considered a key indicator for the midterm elections.
Implications:
The victory in Virginia signals a possible weakening of Republican momentum at the national level. This result will impact the strategies of both parties and could alter the balance in future congressional votes.
Approval of Gerrymandering Proposal in California
Facts:
California voters approved a gerrymandering proposal designed to favour Democrats.
Implications:
This measure consolidates the Democratic advantage in the most populous state and seeks to tactically counteract partisan district redrawing in Republican-controlled states. The battle over electoral rules is becoming as important as the elections themselves.
Europe and immigration: new legal setback in Italy
Facts:
The Italian courts have rejected new precautionary measures against rescue organisations in the Mediterranean, according to Corriere della Sera, Le Monde and AFP.
Implications:
The decision fuels the debate over border sovereignty versus humanitarian norms. The BBC and Die Welt highlight that the ruling could negatively impact the European migration agenda, straining relations between Italy, France and Germany.
Global financial concern: European banks in stock market crash
Facts:
Major European banks suffer sharp market declines amid growing fears of recession, according to the Financial Times, CNBC and Die Welt.
Implications:
The stock market crash increases pressure on the ECB and governments to protect liquidity and prevent systemic contagion. Reuters and FAZ foresee possible state bailouts if the situation worsens.
Environmental crisis: record pollution in India
Facts:
Delhi (a metropolitan area of 35 million inhabitants) and other Indian megacities have recorded historic highs in air pollution, according to the Times of India, Hindustan Times, South China Morning Post and BBC.
Implications:
The WHO warns of extreme health risks, with consequences. Le Monde and Reuters suggest that the crisis could precipitate regulatory changes in energy and transport.
EU enlargement: praise for Ukraine, serious warnings for Serbia and Georgia
Facts:
The European Commission publishes its enlargement reports: it recognises progress in reforms in Ukraine despite doubts about anti-corruption; it warns Serbia and Georgia about democratic setbacks; it suggests that Montenegro could close chapters and be next in line.
Implications:
The EU mixes political messaging (Ukrainian resistance) with strict conditionality. For Kyiv, this is strategic oxygen; for Belgrade and Tbilisi, a reminder that ‘geopolitical ambiguity’ and alignment with Moscow no longer pay dividends.
Energy in Europe: Germany's gas boom puts pressure on reserves
Facts:
LSEG data shows that gas-fired power generation in Germany in the first ten months of 2025 reached record highs for the period, complicating the European goal of filling storage facilities before winter and making the energy mix on the continent more expensive.
Implications:
After cutting the Russian umbilical cord, Berlin is more dependent on LNG (liquefied natural gas) and the spot market; if the cold weather sets in, we will see upward pressure on prices and more ‘reserve’ coal. For industry, the cost horizon is darkening again.
Economic diplomacy: HM King Felipe VI to travel to China
Facts:
Beijing confirms HM King Felipe VI's state visit (10–13 November), the first by a Spanish monarch in 18 years. The trip seeks to prioritise investment, renewables and supply chains in a context of US-China tensions and deep mistrust.
Implications:
The G consolidates a ‘pragmatic’ approach: opening trade doors and breaking European alignments. Potential benefits for batteries and the energy transition; risk of friction in Brussels if preferential treatment of Chinese companies is perceived or if Europe's firm stance on unfair competition from China, especially in the electric car sector, is seen to be breaking down.
Palantir falls after Michael Burry's short bets
Facts:
Palantir shares fell 8% despite reporting solid earnings. Michael Burry, famous for shorting subprime mortgages, revealed short positions against Palantir and Nvidia, betting on a correction in their upward trend.
Implications:
This points to vulnerabilities in technology companies considered overvalued. Investors should prioritise fundamentals over hype, trends and exaggeration, safeguarding financial stability.
Analysis by region and by media
US media
These media outlets highlight internal tensions and their global echoes. The WSJ covers Zohran Mamdani's landslide victory in New York extensively, warning that his policies of free buses, limits on the police, higher taxes and stricter rent control could scare away capital and people, exacerbating the decline since the Bloomberg era, with problems such as crime, homelessness in subways and unaffordable housing.
It also reports the death of Dick Cheney at the age of 84 from complications of pneumonia and heart disease, highlighting his role as a hawk in the post-9/11 war on terror 9/11 and his defence of the invasion of Iraq, including his promotion of the 2007 troop surge that rescued the war from a Vietnam-style defeat, persuading Bush against the consensus for withdrawal.
It also details the Norwegian fund's rejection of the trillion-dollar compensation package for Elon Musk at Tesla, citing concerns about size, share dilution and key person risk, despite recognising the value created; Tesla will announce results on Thursday. On Syria, it reports the quest to repeal 2019 sanctions to rebuild post-civil war, ahead of the Sharaa-Trump meeting, with the Senate approving but the House cautious, noting the terrorist past of Sharaa who overthrew Assad in 2024.
In Latin America, highlights include the full support of Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar for Trump against Venezuela, welcoming warships, applauding air strikes against drug ships and declaring ‘kill them all violently’.
The NYT and Washington Post emphasise the high turnout in New York with more than 2 million votes, Mikie Sherrill's victory in New Jersey against predictions of a tie, and Abigail Spanberger's victory in Virginia reversing the Republican majority, seeing Virginia as an indicator for the midterm elections. They also cover Trump's threat to cut federal funds to NYC for backing Cuomo against Mamdani, and California's approval of gerrymandering (district manipulation) favourable to Democrats.
Fox News and the Washington Times applaud the Caribbean alignment as a check on Maduro. CNN and CBS question Musk's compensation package as an example of excesses in big tech. Politico and The Hill see Syria as a pragmatic but risky opportunity. Foreign Affairs and The National Interest contextualise Cheney's legacy of interventionism and warn of electoral polarisation.
British media
With an Atlantic perspective, The Economist in ‘The World in Brief’ focuses on the US elections: Mamdani's victory as the youngest mayor and first Muslim in NYC with a record turnout of 2 million, Trump's threat to cut funding; Sherrill's Democratic victory in New Jersey against expectations; Spanberger in Virginia as a bellwether for midterms; approval of gerrymandering in California.
The Times and The Telegraph remember Cheney as the architect of post-9/11 policies, contrasting with current debates on Syria. The Guardian criticises Mamdani's victory as a response to inequalities, but warns against extreme socialism. The BBC and The Mail see Persad-Bissessar's support as a regional escalation against Venezuela. The Economist adds analysis to Norway's rejection of Musk, highlighting dilution and risks.
French media
Focusing on Europe and the Middle East, Le Monde and Le Figaro discuss the lifting of Syrian sanctions as a realistic gesture by Trump, but express concern about risks in compensations such as Musk's. Libération and France Info lament Cheney's death as the end of a criticisable interventionist era in Iraq. LCI and BFM cover Mamdani's landslide victory, seeing it as exported polarisation. Orient Le Jour sees the Sharaa-Trump meeting as a potential stabiliser for neighbours such as Lebanon.
German Media
Prioritising the economy, FAZ and Die Welt analyse the rejection of Musk as a sign of European scrutiny of US tech. Die Zeit contextualises Cheney in debates on hawkishness. DPA reports Trinidadian support as an anti-Venezuela network.
Italian Media
Corriere sees Syria as an opportunity for peace in the Mediterranean region. L'Observatore Romano honours Cheney for defending Western values.
Russian and Asian Media
Russia Today and TASS downplay Cheney as an imperialist symbol. China Daily criticises Musk's rejection as a double standard. WION and Indian Express highlight US elections as having an impact on the Indo-Pacific.
Latin American media
Clarín and Reforma support Caribbean alignment against Venezuela as legitimate regional defence. El Mercurio links Syria to migration flows.
Scandinavian and Eastern European media
Kyiv Post criticises softening stance towards Syria if it benefits Russia. Helsingin Sanomat emphasises Norway's position on Musk as ethical.
Middle Eastern and Islamic media
Haaretz and Jerusalem Post see Sharaa-Trump meeting as a threat given Sharaa's history. Al-Jazeera criticises Caribbean support as interventionism. Asharq Al Awsat blames Cheney for Iraqi chaos. Gulf News links US elections to economic alliances.
Major Global News Agencies
Reuters reports Mamdani's victory and Cheney's death with neutrality. AFP and AP cover Syrian sanctions and Musk's rejection.
Editorial note
Today's highlight is the victory of Zohran MAMDANI, a declared Marxist and anti-capitalist. He is yet another who has conquered the Democratic Party from the left. It is no longer a question of his absurd and unworkable programme, nor is there a budget to support what he proposes. Returning to state-run stores that have failed throughout the world is nonsense typical of a radical with no work, life or government experience.
His proposal to reduce the budget of the New York Police Department (NYPD), make urban transport free, freeze rents (we have already seen the result in Barcelona...) and increase taxes on the ‘rich’ will intensify the exodus that has been taking place in New York for more than 10 years. In the last 5 years alone, it has lost almost 700,000 residents.
Mayor Bill de Blasio's disastrous management, with tax increases, deterioration of urban infrastructure and public transport, poor quality public services and a serious increase in public insecurity, has caused an unprecedented exodus from the richest city in the world. De Blasio contemptuously declared: ‘Let them leave!’
Mamdani is not a New York gauche caviar, as the European media claim. He is a radical leftist with a very clear plan in mind: to subdue capitalism and tighten the screws on the city's most prosperous citizens. Let us remember that in New York, in addition to the super-rich, there are hundreds of thousands of highly paid professionals who may end up leaving for other cities or even other countries.
The financial capital of the world may suffer a brain drain that could be disastrous for the financial sector, law firms, doctors, prestigious architects and advertising agencies, among others. The winds are blowing badly for New York, with the most left-wing members of the Democratic Party, the ‘SQUAD’, rejoicing in their victory in the Big Apple, without taking into account that not only is the whole country watching, but the whole world will be scrutinising Madani's management and will witness his failure.
On the other hand, the personal ambitions of Republican candidate Curtis SILWA, founder of the Guardian Angels (a citizen crime watch organisation), facilitated Mamdani's victory. Had the moderate vote (Republican and Democrat) withdrawn, it would have concentrated and added to the MAGA vote, and Andrew CUOMO, an anti-socialist Democrat, would have won the mayoralty. Once again, personal ambitions placed above the general interest have an unacceptable cost.