Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of 6 November 2025
- US Supreme Court questions legal basis of Trump's tariffs
- The shutdown causes a 10% cut in US air traffic.
- Blue night? Democratic victories in the first polls after Trump's election
- European rearmament: rising costs and industrial dilemmas
- China and Russia strengthen their alliance against the West
- Central Asia emerges as a key geo-economic hinge
- Nvidia warns: ‘China will win the artificial intelligence race’
- California approves ‘Gerrymandering’ favourable to Democrats
- Media rack
- Editorial conclusion
US Supreme Court questions legal basis of Trump's tariffs
Facts:
The US Supreme Court assessed the legality and constitutionality of the generalised tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. During the hearing, several justices, including conservatives, expressed scepticism about invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis, as the tariffs are not mentioned in the statute and because of a possible overreach of executive power. The case, supported by businesses and a dozen states, puts tens of billions already collected at stake.
Implications:
This case reveals a deep tension in the US system of checks and balances. If the Supreme Court limits the IEEPA, Congress would regain influence and leverage in trade policy, and the main instrument of confrontation with Beijing would be dismantled. If it validates it, the politicisation of tariffs as a geopolitical weapon and presidential instrument would become normalised. In both scenarios, regulatory volatility is expected for importers and global supply chains.
The shutdown causes a 10% cut in US air traffic.
Facts:
The Department of Transport and the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), in response to the shutdown (government closure) that has now lasted 36 days, have ordered a reduction in capacity in 40 high-density markets. The cut will be gradual, starting at 4% and reaching 10% next week, due to a shortage of air traffic controllers and safety risks. International flights are initially exempt. Estimates suggest that at O'Hare alone, a 10% reduction would mean 121 fewer flights and more than 14,500 fewer seats per day.
Implications:
The shutdown is no longer a rhetorical dispute but has become a systemic operational risk. The air traffic chaos seriously exacerbates the economic and human cost of the political impasse, threatening chain delays, logistics and tourism just before Thanksgiving, traditionally the peak period for travel and domestic travel in the US. Geopolitically, it projects American fragility, erodes institutional confidence and increases the risk of ‘domino effects’ in global flows of travellers and goods, posing a very serious macroeconomic and geoeconomic risk.
Blue night? Democratic victories in the first polls after Trump's election
Facts:
The Democrats achieved decisive victories in the midterm elections, sweeping Virginia and New Jersey (with governors elected by wide margins) and scoring a symbolic coup in New York with the election of Zohran Mamdani. None of this comes as a surprise. New Jersey has not had a Republican governor since Chris Christie's second term ended in 2018. In Virginia, the most populous areas are predominantly Democratic, namely the neighbourhoods and cities near Washington DC. The western part of the state is mostly Republican, but less populated. It is difficult to consider the victory in both states as an indication of what may happen in the midterm elections.
Trump admitted that ‘it wasn't good for anyone’ on the Republican side. Above all, because of the egocentric stubbornness of Republican candidate for mayor of New York Curtis SILWA.
Implications:
Although it is not a structural ‘blue wave’, the result opens the door to some hope for the opposition and reinforces the narrative of recovery in urban and suburban areas. The GOP notes that, without Trump on the ballot, its coalition loses traction. This temporarily mitigates extreme polarisation and strains internal Republican relations, giving the Biden administration greater room for manoeuvre, despite the persistence of internal divisions within the Democratic Party.
European rearmament: rising costs and industrial dilemmas
Facts:
The European Union faces a dramatic increase in military spending, driven by the urgent need to strengthen its defences against the Russian threat and new geopolitical configurations. The Economist highlights the high cost, bottlenecks and fragmented procurement.
Implications:
The EU must integrate its defence industrial and technological base with common standards and multi-year contracts, or it will continue to pay more for less. This effort would strengthen NATO and counter Trump's isolationism, but it strains post-pandemic national budgets and exacerbates social divisions and inequalities between Eastern members (who prioritise security) and the rest.
China and Russia strengthen their alliance against the West
Facts:
Following the Russian Prime Minister's visit, Beijing and Moscow promised a joint and coordinated response to US ‘unilateral sanctions’ and secondary tariffs. China has been Russia's leading partner for 15 years, with bilateral trade reaching $245 billion in 2024.
Implications:
This convergence of convenience consolidates an authoritarian axis that challenges the liberal order. Financial interoperability is advancing, through yuan settlements and alternative payment systems, which erodes the effectiveness of Western sanctions and sustains Moscow's war economy.
Central Asia emerges as a key geo-economic hinge
Facts:
The Eurasian window gains strategic weight. Regions such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan become key pivots due to their energy resources, critical minerals and logistics corridors, attracting investment from China, Russia and the West.
Implications:
A multipolar space is consolidating. Russia is losing exclusivity, China is consolidating its logistics chain, and Turkey and the Gulf are advancing. Europe must treat these countries as strategic partners if it wants to diversify its dependencies and prevent the region from falling under exclusive authoritarian influence.
Nvidia warns: ‘China will win the artificial intelligence race’
Facts:
At the FT Future of AI Summit, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, said that China ‘will win the AI race’ and has the potential to surpass the US, despite chip restrictions. He cited subsidised energy costs, fewer regulatory hurdles and a critical mass of developers as reasons.
Implications:
This is a direct message to Washington and Brussels: with overregulation and expensive energy, the West is shooting itself in the foot. Europe must ensure competitive electricity for its data centres and accelerate its industrial policy if it does not want to cede frontier computing and remain on the digital periphery.
California approves ‘Gerrymandering’ favourable to Democrats
Facts:
California voters approved a new congressional map designed to favour Democrats. The move is seen as a gamble by Governor Gavin Newsom to improve his party's odds in the House of Representatives ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Implications:
The tactic reflects the deep partisanship in the US and, while it could balance Trumpist power in Washington, it risks accusations of electoral manipulation that erode overall democratic confidence. It should be noted that outrage is widespread when Republicans have tried to redraw electoral districts, but there is silence from those in the state of California at the initiative of Governor Gavin Newcom.
Media rack
Shutdown/Aviation: Reuters, Washington Post, FT and The Guardian set the agenda with operational data and implementation timelines.
Supreme Court vs. Tariffs: Financial Times leads the coverage of oral arguments and the scope of IEEPA.
US Elections: Reuters and The Economist highlight Virginia/New Jersey and the symbol in NYC (Mamdani). Fox News and Washington Times downplay Republican defeats.
Technology/AI: FT and its echoes (Reuters, Axios) amplify Huang's (Nvidia) warning and the energy-regulation-talent angle.
Eurasia/Central Asia: The Economist documents growth and corridors. Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post contribute the Sino-Russian political narrative.
Russia/East: RT and TASS extol alliances; Ukrainian Pravda criticises Trumpist pressures.
Editorial conclusion
The institutional vector marks the day in the US: the shutdown translates into a material cut in flights, while the Supreme Court debates whether to reorder the White House's economic power by cutting the IEEPA.
In technology, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sounds the alarm. "This is not surrender, it is a warning: without competitive energy and regulatory clarity, the West is ceding the frontier of cutting-edge computing. In Eurasia, the convergence of convenience between Moscow and Beijing buys time and sells resilience.
If this alliance consolidates, it would pose a serious problem for the West, but especially for Europe. Europeans must spend better—not just more—if they aspire to real military capability.