Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of October 2
- Transatlantic Relations and the Trump Presidency
- Tensions in Asia-Pacific: Taiwan and China
- Technology Race: AI between the US and China
- Energy Market: Oil and Sanctions on Russia
- Global Risks: Geopolitical Volatility
- Daily Geostrategic Analysis — 2 October 2025
- Europe — Copenhagen: ‘drone wall,’ defence and Russian assets
- Ukraine — US intelligence to strike at Russia's energy sector
- Middle East — ‘Sumud’ flotilla and uncertain fit of the Trump-Gaza Plan
- United States — Institutions: Supreme Court and federal shutdown
- Economy, Energy and Markets — Gold Close to Record High
- Technology and Doctrine — Drone Warfare Enters European Phase
Transatlantic Relations and the Trump Presidency
Almost a year into Donald Trump's second term, Europe faces pressure to assume greater geopolitical relevance. Threats of widespread tariffs, demands for increased NATO defence spending and a transactional approach to Ukraine have prompted European capitals to recalibrate their transatlantic relationship.
Atlantic Council experts such as Jérémie Gallon highlight how these dynamics could redefine the global order, drawing inspiration from figures such as Henry Kissinger. Implications: Greater European autonomy could strengthen the alliance, but there are risks of fragmentation if interests are not aligned.
Tensions in Asia-Pacific: Taiwan and China
Taiwan warns that a Ukrainian defeat could embolden China to intensify aggression against the island. Hsieh Jih-Sheng, deputy director of Taiwanese military intelligence, emphasises the study of Ukrainian strategies such as cyber defence, disinformation and asymmetric warfare. This connects European security with Indo-Pacific security, suggesting that a Russian victory would be perceived as Western weakness, reducing costs for Beijing.
China criticises Taiwan for exaggerating threats, while joint Russian-Chinese exercises complicate deterrence. Implications: Possible two-front challenge for the West, with European support limited to intelligence and cyber cooperation, testing cohesion against authoritarianism.
Technology Race: AI between the US and China
The US and China follow divergent paths in AI supremacy. The US is investing heavily in ‘AI factories’ via Trump's Action Plan, mobilising private and foreign capital; companies such as Microsoft and Google are projecting US$364 billion in 2025 for data centres, boosting GDP. Projects such as Stargate (US$500 billion) and alliances with the UK, UAE and Japan seek a global network.
China, after initial overinvestment (500 projects in 2022), pivots to commercial ‘AI+’ applications focused on inference, criticising ‘neijuan’ (wasted competition); faces US export controls and lags in chips such as Huawei's Ascend. Implications: US dominance in computing power (70% global) vs. Chinese focus on practical results; risks include bubbles, antitrust, cybersecurity, and the environment.
Energy Market: Oil and Sanctions on Russia
Oil prices rise on fears of tougher sanctions against Russia, with the G7 targeting buyers of Russian crude and facilitators of evasion. The US will provide intelligence to Ukraine for attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, depriving Moscow of revenue.
However, concerns about oversupply limit gains: OPEC+ plans to increase production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, amid declining demand in the US and Asia; US inventories grew by 1.8 million barrels. Implications: Volatility due to geopolitical risks, including a government shutdown in the US, affecting global supply chains and finances.
Global Risks: Geopolitical Volatility
Geopolitical volatility enters the top 10 business risks for the first time according to Aon's 2025 survey, rising 12 places since 2023. Based on 3,000 global responses, it affects supply chains, regulations and financial performance; only 14% track exposure to top risks.
Cyberattacks remain a major risk, driven by AI and digital expansion. Other risks: business disruption, economic slowdown, regulatory changes. Implications: Low preparedness (19% use analytics for insurance) underscores the need for resilient strategies in the face of growing instability.
Other Relevant Topics
- Dedollarisation and the Role of Gold: In an unstable world under Trump, dedollarisation trends and geopolitical shifts elevate gold as a safe haven, according to analysis by J. Rotbart & Co., although specific details are limited in available sources.
- African Markets: GDP growth of 4.1% by 2025, with Ethiopia (6.6%) and Rwanda (6.8%) outperforming Nigeria (2.7%) and South Africa (1.4%); key economic and geopolitical catalysts include investment and regional stability.
- Rare Minerals: Australian episode highlights deposits in Greenland and geopolitical race for rare earths, essential for technology and defence.
Daily Geostrategic Analysis — 2 October 2025
Key of the day:
Europe enters ‘defence mode’ at Copenhagen summit (drone wall + plan to use immobilised Russian assets); Washington enables intelligence for Ukraine to strike energy infrastructure inside Russia; Israel intercepts ‘Sumud’ flotilla; US Supreme Court keeps Lisa Cook at Fed for now; gold nears historic highs amid rate cuts and federal shutdown.
Europe — Copenhagen: ‘drone wall,’ defence and Russian assets
Key facts
The 27 gave broad support to building a European network of anti-drone sensors/effectors (‘drone wall’) following recent incursions into Polish, Estonian and Danish airspace. It is an alert and neutralisation mesh — not a physical wall — and the Commission will present a roadmap in two weeks.
Leaders discussed a loan-reparations package of ≈€140 billion for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets (yields/cash balances) as collateral. The Kremlin calls it ‘theft’; there are legal doubts in several capitals.
Implications
- European defence: the anti-drone network aims to cover a weak spot that Russia exploits with saturation (the ability to overwhelm defences with cheap swarms). It accelerates spending on the defence industry and C-UAS doctrines, including linkage with long-range strike for deterrence.
- Russian assets: politically viable, legally sensitive (sovereign immunity). If successful, it would shield Kyiv's 2026-27 financing without burdening taxpayers; if it fails, it would erode legal credibility and confidence in the European financial market.
Ukraine — US intelligence to strike Russia's energy sector
Key facts
The US will share specific intelligence for Ukrainian attacks on refineries, pipelines and power plants inside Russia; in addition, the transfer of Tomahawk missiles is being considered. This is the first explicit endorsement of deep, long-range strikes on energy infrastructure.
Implications
Economic and operational: to reduce hydrocarbon revenues (the main source of Russian war funding) and strain the logistics of refined petroleum products. Risk of retaliation (cyber, missiles, energy) and horizontal escalation.
Transatlantic coordination: Washington asks allies to share intelligence; the G7 will tighten the application of sanctions on Russian oil.
Middle East — “Sumud” flotilla and uncertain fit of the Trump-Gaza Plan
Key facts
Israel intercepted several boats in the flotilla carrying activists (including Greta Thunberg) and diverted ships to Israeli ports; there have been arrests and passengers have been transferred “in good condition”, according to the Foreign Office.
Netanyahu is betting on the Trump Plan to rebuild external support and ease internal pressure, but his coalition is tense about any mention of future Palestinian statehood.
The plan sets out a tough path for the return of the PNA to Gaza: demanding reforms, international transitional administration and a stabilisation force; with no clear immediate roadmap to statehood. Context: Illegal settlements have continued to expand.
Implications
- Israeli politics: if there is a hostage exchange/ceasefire, Netanyahu gains breathing space; if not, the political cost and the rift with ultra-nationalist partners grow.
- Legitimacy/law of the sea: Interception in international waters reignites legal debate and European diplomatic tensions.
United States — Institutions: Supreme Court and federal shutdown
Key developments
The Supreme Court allows Lisa Cook to remain at the Fed for now, pending arguments in January 2026 on whether the president can remove governors of independent agencies.
US enters shutdown: financial regulators begin mass furloughs; possible data delays (e.g., employment) and increased volatility.
Implications
- Fed independence at stake: future ruling will set precedent on independent agencies.
- Macro and markets: lower data visibility, higher uncertainty premium.
Economy, energy and markets — Gold near record high
Key facts
Gold remains near its all-time high (≈£3,895/oz) on bets of US rate cuts and political noise over the shutdown; ETF positions rise (SPDR Gold Trust).
Implications
- Hedging against falling rates + political uncertainty.
- Energy: if Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian refineries, we would see pressure on distillate spreads and refined petroleum product routes in Europe.
Technology and doctrine — The drone war enters the European phase
Key facts
The EU moves from diagnosis to continental C-UAS architecture (detection, jamming, interceptors, defence of critical infrastructure and nodes, NATO interoperability).
Implications (military)
For Russia, it becomes more difficult to ‘saturate’ defences with low-cost swarms. For the EU, the challenge is industrial capacity and cost per effect: integrating disparate sensors and multi-domain response doctrines.
Quick overview (most relevant by region)
Europe-Ukraine: Zelensky meets with European leaders in Copenhagen (agenda: financing, drones, air defence).
Middle East: Israel maintains pressure on Gaza while Hamas weighs up the plan; other terrorist factions such as Islamic Jihad reject it.
US: undergoing a simultaneous test of governance (shutdown) and monetary independence (Cook case).
Copenhagen in depth
What is changing and what to look out for?
Architecture: from ‘loose pieces’ to a layered European anti-drone network (detection, EW -early warning-, kinetic) and coordinated national commands. Attention to costs and coverage of the southern flank (Italy warned not to neglect it). Serious warning to Spain and Italy to become more involved in the defence of the Alliance's eastern flank.
Financing for Ukraine: the loan-reparations (€140 billion) through the leveraging of frozen Russian assets will gain traction if the G7 goes along with it and Belgium/France obtain legal firewalls. Risk: litigation, reputation of the euro and retaliation.
Timeline: two weeks for the Commission's defence roadmap; another summit to decide. Signal of urgency and window for Moscow to test European resolve with new hybrid intrusions.
Media sources consulted today
- Reuters (EU defence, ANP plan, flotilla, gold; shutdown coverage),
- AP (flotilla; Lisa Cook/Supreme Court),
- Euronews (political support and roadmap timetable; loan-reparations),
- PBS NewsHour / SCOTUSblog (legal details of Cook case),
- The Economist — World in Brief (agenda for the day and summit),
- Washington Post (fleet),
- Politico (macro impact of shutdown). (See links below).