Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical analysis of October 3
- US authorises intelligence for Ukraine to strike Russian energy infrastructure
- EPC/EU summit in Copenhagen: colourful rhetoric, insufficient means
- Israel intercepts the ‘Global Sumud’ flotilla: international ridicule and riots in Europe.
- Trump's Peace Plan for Gaza: favourable assessment of the 20 points.
- Attack on synagogue in Manchester: terrorism inspired by Gaza
- Crucial elections in the Czech Republic
- Implications
- Putin tests Western unity.
- Afghanistan: 48-hour digital blackout
- US: second day of shutdown
- Gold at historic high
- Oil rebounds on sanctions against Russia.
- Lisa Cook remains at the Fed.
- Russia and submarine cables
US authorises intelligence for Ukraine to strike Russian energy infrastructure
Facts
Washington will allow Ukraine to use long-range intelligence against refineries, pipelines and power stations on Russian territory, according to two US officials speaking to Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. In addition, the Trump administration is considering providing Tomahawk missiles for deep strikes, marking a significant policy shift in support for Kiev. This announcement comes amid the EPC summit in Copenhagen, where Zelensky pushed for more Western aid.
Implications
- Qualitative escalation: from defensive support to offensive deterrence, potentially weakening Russia's oil and gas export capacity, which accounts for 40% of its federal revenue.
- Risk of hybrid retaliation: cyberattacks on Western infrastructure, sabotage of undersea cables or disruptions to global energy supplies, as already seen in previous incidents with Nord Stream.
- Political signal to allies: closing energy and financial loopholes, forcing Europe to diversify sources and increase defences, while potentially raising crude oil prices by 10-15% in the short term, according to analysts at S&P Global.
- Impact on markets: Oil rebounded 2% after the announcement, reflecting fears of disruptions to Russia's ‘dark fleet’ of tankers.
Judgement
This decisive strategic shift tests Russia's capacity for retaliation and places Europe on the front line of vulnerability, exacerbating the ‘geopolitical recession’ described by the WEF, where state conflicts dominate global risks for 2025. It could hasten the end of the war if Russia is forced to negotiate, but it also risks nuclear escalation if Putin perceives an existential threat.
EPC/EU summit in Copenhagen: colourful rhetoric, insufficient means
Facts
Zelensky called for cutting all ties with Russia during the seventh meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), which brought together some 50 leaders in the Danish capital, according to Al Jazeera and DW. Denmark spoke of ‘hybrid warfare,’ and the final communiqué mentions cooperation on drones, migration and economic security, but without concrete commitments. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasised ‘no commitments on Ukraine's EU membership’, highlighting internal divisions.
Critical analysis
- Vagueness: no deadlines or budgets, obvious delivery gap, as criticised by Xinhua, which highlighted divisions over Ukraine's accession to the EU.
- Internal divisions: over frozen Russian assets (valued at €300 billion) and sanctions, with Hungary as the main blocker, and tensions between pro-Ukrainian members such as Poland and sceptics such as Slovakia.
- Misaligned ambition: talk of ‘drone walls’ without sufficient defence industry, ignoring dependence on US imports, which account for 60% of the weapons supplied to Ukraine according to SIPRI.
- Global context: the summit highlights Western fatigue, with Atlantic Council polls showing 45% of Europeans favouring negotiations with Russia.
Verdict
Family photo rather than strategy: Europe remains in the realm of rhetoric, unable to translate political unity into real capacity, which according to EY amplifies geoeconomic risks such as protectionism and trade fragmentation in 2025.
Israel intercepts the ‘Global Sumud’ flotilla: international ridicule and riots in Europe.
Facts
The Israeli navy detained more than 40 boats carrying activists, including Greta Thunberg, Mandla Mandela and MEP Rima Hassan, according to the BBC and Reuters. The participants will be deported after being intercepted in international waters, potentially violating maritime law, according to AP. In response, riots broke out in Barcelona (looting of shops), university occupations in Italy and protests in Paris, Berlin, Geneva, Dublin, Istanbul, Buenos Aires and Mexico, with at least 200 arrests reported by The Independent.
Critical assessment
- Histrionic activism: it was a PR stunt with no real humanitarian impact, as only one of the ships managed to approach Gaza before being detained.
- Boomerang effect: Israel reinforces its narrative of ‘provocation’; the activists are left looking ridiculous, damaging their global credibility, as noted by the Jerusalem Post.
- European unrest: the episode degenerated into nihilistic vandalism, damaging the Palestinian cause and fuelling extremist propaganda, with links to Islamist radicalisation according to counter-terrorism experts.
- Legal context: The interception raises questions about the legality of the Israeli blockade, criticised by Amnesty International as ‘illegal’. However, Israel's legitimacy in declaring a security exclusion zone within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which is set at 200 miles or the median in the case of neighbouring countries in the Jamaica Convention, seems clear. Strictly speaking, there can be no question of waters over which Israel does not have sovereignty, if it does have it (see UN Convention on the Law of the Sea).
Conclusion
An embarrassing spectacle of ‘political exhibitionism’ that increases the urgency of a real agreement, exacerbating societal polarisation identified by the WEF as risk #4 for 2025.
Trump's Peace Plan for Gaza: favourable assessment of the 20 points.
Facts
The US and Israel are negotiating an immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages and reconstruction with deradicalisation, with pressure from the UAE on Netanyahu, according to the BBC and CNN. The plan, unveiled in September, includes a ‘New Gaza’ with a peace council led by Trump and development experts, as detailed by PBS and Wikipedia.
Assessment
The plan sets out the correct sequence: security → hostages → deradicalisation → reconstruction → political horizon. Manageable risks with verifiers, conditionality and gradual sanctions, financed by an economic panel that could attract $50 billion in Arab investment, according to Reuters.
Assessment of the 20 points (detailed summary)
- Feasible: Gaza as a deradicalised, terror-free zone; permanent ceasefire; immediate release of hostages; phased Israeli withdrawal; massive reconstruction with Arab funds; reforms in the Palestinian National Authority (PNA); mutual non-aggression guarantees; economic incentives such as free trade zones; international verification with sanctions for non-compliance; 18-month timetable.
- Conditional: Suspension of Israeli air operations; complete disarmament of Hamas; end of incitement in Palestinian education; humanitarian maritime corridor; two-state horizon with secure borders.
- Risky: Limited amnesties for non-violent militants; US-led international security mission; panel of experts for ‘new Gaza’; ban on military reconstruction; Trump's oversight of funds. Conclusion. It is the most coherent plan since Oslo: pragmatic, fundable and verifiable, although it depends on the acceptance of Hamas, which has requested modifications according to CNN, mitigating the risks of armed conflict in the Middle East.
Attack on synagogue in Manchester: terrorism inspired by Gaza
Facts
British police identified the attacker as Jihad Al-Shamie, a 35-year-old British man of Syrian origin, who killed two people and stabbed a guard at a synagogue during Yom Kippur, according to the BBC and Al Jazeera. It is being investigated as an Islamist-motivated terrorist attack, with the suspect shot dead by police.
Implications
- Confirms the risk of immediate radicalisation in Europe linked to the Gaza conflict, with a 300% increase in anti-Semitic incidents since October 2023 according to the ADL (Anti-Defamation League).
- High symbolism: attack on a Jewish place of worship amid a wave of protests over the flotilla, exacerbating community tensions. Confirms the alarming increase in anti-Semitic attacks and assaults across Europe.
- The UK is under pressure to strengthen security in synagogues and Jewish communities, with the Prime Minister condemning the act as an ‘attack on British values’.
- Global connections: possible links to social media propaganda, amplifying misinformation as WEF #1 long-term risk.
Judgement
The Gaza conflict acts as a multiplier for domestic terrorism in Europe, highlighting the need for cyber and intelligence countermeasures, in line with KPMG warnings about the escalation of proxy wars.
Crucial elections in the Czech Republic
Facts
Parliamentary elections will decide whether the country remains in the pro-European orbit or veers towards pro-Russian populist positions, with Andrej Babis' ANO party leading polls at 32%, according to Politico and DW. Voting takes place on 3-4 October, gauging support for Ukraine.
Implications
- A pro-European victory would consolidate a strong Central European bloc with Poland and Slovakia, strengthening sanctions against Russia.
- A pro-Russian advance would be an indirect victory for Putin within the EU, potentially blocking recovery funds and aid to Kyiv.
- Economic: Babis promises tax cuts, but could increase instability, affecting Czech GDP by 1-2% according to the Atlantic Council.
Judgement
The Czech Republic is now a barometer of the Kremlin's ability to sow division in Central Europe, reflecting the risks of populism in the EY 2025 outlook.
Putin tests Western unity.
Facts
The Economist highlights Russia's strategy of prolonged attrition, exploiting political and electoral fractures in the West, with Putin aiming to break NATO through grey-zone campaigns.
Implications
- Putin is banking on Ukrainian fatigue and the European and US electoral cycle, such as the Czech elections and US midterms.
- He is pressing hard with cyberattacks and propaganda to erode cohesion, with incidents such as the Yantar near submarine cables.
- Global: increases risks of geoeconomic confrontation, per WEF #3.
Judgement
The West needs to move from rhetoric to multi-year commitments on defence, energy and cyber security, or risk internal corrosion, as BlackRock warns.
Afghanistan: 48-hour digital blackout
Facts
Internet and telephone services cut off; flights cancelled, payments blocked, restored on 1 October after Taliban order, according to BBC and CBS, affecting economy and isolation of women.
Opinion
Example of extreme vulnerability: one cut is enough to paralyse an entire country. A window of influence for China and Iran, amplifying risks of censorship in WEF #16.
US: second day of shutdown
Facts
Cost of $7–15 billion per week; mass layoffs and paralysed federal services, with an impact on GDP of 0.1% per week according to CBS and The Guardian.
Judgement
The shutdown is a political weapon of Trumpism: it seeks to force the reduction of the federal government and give way to more efficient state structures. It is true that quite a few federal government programmes and projects would end up being eliminated, with serious consequences in various sectors. This could erode global confidence, as in Stimson #1 risk.
Gold at historic high
Facts
$3,890/ounce, driven by the shutdown and expectations of Fed cuts, with gains of 45% in 2025 according to Reuters and CNBC.
Judgement
Gold is a barometer of fear: political chaos in the US erodes global confidence, reflecting economic insecurity in EY top 10.
Oil rebounds on sanctions against Russia.
Facts
Crude oil rebounded after three days of declines on fears of tougher sanctions against Moscow intermediaries, with Brent rising 1.5% despite OPEC+ glut, per Reuters.
Verdict
Each sanction reinforces the opacity of the ‘dark fleet’ and increases the risk of a global logistics crisis, raising energy volatility as S&P's top risk.
Lisa Cook remains at the Fed.
Facts
The Supreme Court allows the governor to remain in office until January, blocking Trump's attempt to remove her for ‘misconduct,’ according to Reuters and the Supreme Court.
Judgement
A valve of institutional stability amid the shutdown storm, protecting the Fed's independence from political pressure.
Russia and submarine cables
Facts
The Yantar vessel detected on critical European telecommunications routes, mapping cables in the Irish Sea and Atlantic, according to FT and Kyiv Independent.
Judgement
Hybrid warfare is already here: Europe must shield its Achilles heel under the sea, or face cyber disruptions, as KPMG warns.
Media Rack (extensive)
- Agencies: Reuters (US intel Ukraine, fleet intercepted, record gold, oil rebound, Fed's Cook, Yantar cables); AP (fleet legality, shutdown cost); AFP (Europe riots, Afghanistan blackout, Manchester victims).
- Anglo-Saxon press: Wall Street Journal (US intel strikes Russia, Trump Gaza plan); The Economist (Putin unity test, grey-zone campaigns); The Guardian (shutdown impact $15B, gold $3890, Czech elections, Copenhagen divisions).
- European press: DW (Copenhagen summit, Czech populism); RFI (Paris flotilla protests); European Newsroom (EPC vagueness, Yantar threats); FT (Yantar mapping cables, oil sanctions).
- Regional press: Times of Israel (ridiculous flotilla, viable Gaza plan); Jerusalem Post (Thunberg arrest, 20-point summary); Al Jazeera (Manchester victims, Hamas Gaza ultimatum, Afghanistan isolation).
- Specialised: SCOTUSblog (Cook Supreme, Fed independence); Financial Times (submarine cable risks, gold surge shutdown); Kyiv Independent (Yantar sabotage, Czech shift Ukraine); PBS (Gaza 20 points full, shutdown fact-check); CNBC (gold slip Fed, oil rebound); NPR (Manchester terrorism, Cook stay); BBC (Thunberg flotilla, Afghanistan blackout, synagogue named victims); WEF Reports (Global Risks 2025: armed conflict #1); EY (Geostrategic Outlook: populism #1); KPMG (Top Risks: US-China, energy).
Editorial conclusion
Friday leaves a busy board: the West intensifies its energy war against Russia with offensive intelligence; Europe shows itself united but weak in Copenhagen, with divisions over Ukraine; the Mediterranean becomes the theatre of ridiculous activists in the flotilla and serious peace plans such as Trump's; terrorism returns to Europe with the attack in Manchester; and the US projects its own fragility with a devastating shutdown, record gold prices and disputes within the Fed.
At the same time, Putin explores fissures with ships such as Yantar, the Czech Republic votes while gauging populism, and Afghanistan illustrates digital vulnerabilities, reminding us that the global industrial and geo-economic battle is already underway, as warned by reports from the WEF, EY and KPMG on an era of intensified rivalries.