The hidden keys to the 2025-2026 US elections
- The Transatlantic Perception Gap: Beyond ‘Magical Thinking’
- The asymmetrical infiltration of the American two-party system
- The real lessons for 2026
The Transatlantic Perception Gap: Beyond ‘Magical Thinking’
It is surprising to see how numerous analyses published in the European press continue to approach US politics from the perspective of their own desires rather than from the complex reality of the country. This has been particularly evident since the elections of 4 November 2025, with headlines celebrating ‘unquestionable’ victories for the Democrats or supposed failures for Trumpism. However, such interpretations overlook the real structure of American society and, above all, forget that Europe and the United States are not comparable in terms of their political traditions or institutional functioning.
At first glance, the Democratic victories in New York, Virginia and New Jersey might suggest a profound change. However, a closer analysis of these results reveals that they do not respond to a single uniform trend, but rather to very different dynamics that coexist within the Democratic Party itself. Thus, while moderate candidates capable of attracting independent voters are winning in Virginia and New Jersey, a radical profile is emerging in New York that does not represent a natural expansion of the Democratic centre, but rather the affirmation of a left-wing project that, far from integrating harmoniously into the party, is creating tension from within.
In this way, the European interpretation tends to confuse a series of victories with a coherent ideological trend, without seeing that what is really manifesting itself is an internal fracture in the Democratic Party and an asymmetrical radicalisation that runs through the entire US political system. Conventional analysis, therefore, not only simplifies, but also overlooks the underlying key: the two-party system no longer acts as a brake on the extremes, but has absorbed them.
The asymmetrical infiltration of the American two-party system
The American two-party system, which in the past served to moderate national politics, is now undergoing a process of decomposition. As it is virtually impossible to create a viable third party, radical movements have chosen to infiltrate the two existing parties. However, this infiltration is not symmetrical.
In the Republican Party, the transformation is practically complete. The MAGA movement, born as an insurgency, has become the structural core of the party. The old neoconservative currents have been absorbed, neutralised or expelled, and power is now determined more by personal loyalty to the ‘America First’ axis than by ideological content. Internal discipline is enforced through clear messages, such as those issued by Donald Trump Jr., which not only reaffirm the movement's hegemony but also send explicit warnings to those who seek to question it.
In contrast, in the Democratic Party, the process is still underway and takes the form of a gradual takeover by the radical left. The phenomenon is manifested in the growing presence of the Democratic Socialists of America in elected office and strategic positions, especially in prosecutors' offices and city councils in large cities. Added to this is the influence of figures such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose ideological positions are well to the left of European social democracy and reflect a political project that, far from seeking progressive reform of capitalism, aspires to overcome it. This divergence, often misinterpreted in Europe, fuels conceptual confusion that leads to erroneous diagnoses of American political developments.
Therefore, while the Republican Party has consolidated a new internal orthodoxy, the Democratic Party is experiencing a struggle between moderates and radicals that threatens its cohesion and generates growing pressure on independent voters, who no longer find in the two-party system the stability that characterised previous decades.
The real lessons for 2026
As we approach the 2026 election cycle, it is becoming clear that the results in Virginia and New Jersey, far from being symbols of ideological change, simply represent the continuation of predictable local dynamics. What is truly significant is Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York, not as a triumph of Marxism, but as an expression of the deep malaise of a generation that feels that the economic system has ceased to work for them. Their vote is less a response to doctrinal adherence and more a cry of frustration in the face of an economic model perceived as unfair and exclusionary.
In this context, the great political lesson for 2026 is the need for adaptation. The MAGA movement and conservatism in general cannot limit themselves to defending an economic status quo that alienates a large part of the youth. At the same time, the Democratic Party cannot ignore the fact that its growing openness to radical discourse is generating rejection among moderates and independents. Ultimately, both parties will have to face a new emotional geopolitics – as defined by Dominique Moïsi – marked by anxiety, disenchantment and a feeling of abandonment.
Mamdani's victory should therefore be interpreted as a warning: whoever is able to respond to generational unrest by offering credible solutions to the cost-of-living crisis and the perception of a rigged system will have the best chance of winning in 2026.