The other space race between China and the United States
The United States and the alliance of interests between China and Russia are engaged in a hidden race against each other. It is practically unknown, because it takes place in the discreet diplomatic arena, although it is directly related to the space hegemony that one seeks to maintain and the other two to achieve.
Washington, on the one hand, and the coalition of Beijing and Moscow, on the other, are doing everything in their power to enlist the political leaders of the nations over which they exert influence or maintain close ties in their respective lunar and space exploration projects.
The White House's search for partners is carried out in accordance with instructions from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. What are they?
The United States has conceived, promotes and leads what it has dubbed the Artemis Accords. It is a non-binding, multilateral initiative to bring together with NASA and its Artemis lunar exploration programme nations that are willing to voluntarily assume responsibility for the sustainability and safety of outer space activities.
These Agreements were presented to society in October 2020 in a virtual form because of COVID-19. It was during the 70th International Astronautical Congress and was immediately signed by plenipotentiary representatives of seven of the United States' most trusted nations: Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. A month later, on 12 November, it was signed by Ukraine.
Reaction from Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin
The Artemis Agreements are a set of general principles that serve as "rules of conduct for maintaining a sustainable human presence on the Moon and for future activities in outer space". What are the rules they advocate? They call for nations to be "transparent" in their space exploration plans and policies; for the technologies they develop to be "interoperable"; and for "harmful interference between countries" during the conduct of their activities to be avoided.
It also seeks to "guarantee" that space missions are dedicated "to peaceful purposes" in accordance with international law; to "register" objects launched into space; to "disseminate" the scientific data obtained, "avoid conflicts" through the creation of "safety zones" and "provide assistance" in the event of emergencies in the cosmos.
After six months and as a result of Washington's diplomatic action, three other nations joined in 2021: Korea and New Zealand at the end of May and, on 15 June, Jair Bolsonaro's Brazil became the first South American nation to sign the Accords. Poland and Mexico followed shortly afterwards.
China and Russia, surprised at first, decided to launch a joint project, very different from NASA's, but also open to cooperation with third countries. They announced it on 16 June 2021, during the World Space Exploration Conference (GLEX) in St. Petersburg. At the Tavrichesky Palace, the Beijing space agency (CNSA) and the Moscow space agency (Roscosmos) presented the International Lunar Research Station or ILRS, a very ambitious three-stage initiative, to be built between 2028 and 2036. The long-distance race had begun.
However, unlike the United States, the Sino-Russian project was not immediately followed by the accession of other nations. Nevertheless, Washington accelerated its contacts and in 2022 nine states joined the Artemis Agreements: Israel, Romania, Bahrain, Singapore, a second Latin American nation, Colombia, France, Saudi Arabia and the first two African countries, Nigeria and Rwanda.
On the one hand 35 nations, on the other six
The Kremlin's illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed the priorities of Moscow and Beijing. The space cooperation programme between Roscosmos and CNSA for the period 2023-2027 could not be approved until the end of 2022. And as of 31 December, the Russian-Chinese ILRS venture had no partners other than its founders.
On the other hand, the number of third nations affiliated to the Artemis Agreements was growing rapidly. The year 2023 saw the Czech Republic join at the beginning of May, followed by Spain. The Minister of Science and Innovation, Diana Morant, signed the Agreements on 30 May, on the occasion of a visit by Bill Nelson to the Moncloa Palace. Then came Ecuador, India, Argentina... And the turning point was reached.
The veteran diplomats in charge of foreign policy in Beijing, Wang Yi, and Moscow, Sergei Lavrov, urged their respective ambassadors and the situation began to change in mid-2023. The first government to accede to the ILRS project was Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela, followed by South Africa - one of the BRICS states -, Belarus - a staunch ally of Russia -, wealthy Azerbaijan and Pakistan, which had three decades of space cooperation with China and had just seen New Delhi partner with Washington. In December, Egypt, the new BRICS as of 1 January, joined.
The pace of accessions to the Artemis Agreements has not stopped. After Spain, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and Angola joined. And this year Belgium, Greece and Uruguay have joined, the latter as recently as 15 February. As of today, there are 35 members on Washington's side: 15 European, 8 Asian, 7 American, 3 African and 2 Oceanian nations. Since December, the Beijing-Russia duo has been stuck on six countries: two Asian, two African, one European and one Latin American.
The race to the bottom will continue as 2027 approaches, the year in which the White House hopes the first woman will set foot on the Moon. In the meantime, forays to Selene continue on both sides. With NASA's support, the US company Intuitive Machines achieved a partially successful landing on 22 February with its Nova-C Odysseus surface module, which landed some 200 kilometres from the lunar South Pole. China is preparing for the launch of its Chang'e-6 lunar probe, China's first mission under the ILRS project, in May.