In 2022, Lebanon is gambling on not being a failed state

Lebanon faces a new academic year with expectations at rock bottom and a bleak outlook, mired in a crisis that has devastated the country at the economic and energy, social and health, political and judicial levels. With the state in clear decline and on the verge of collapse, even close to failure, the weight of the Hezbollah Shiite militia-party has reached a magnitude sufficient to control the institutions at will. With little accountability. A difficult starting point for optimism. 

Since Prime Minister Najib Mikati took office in September, the executive has made little progress on the recovery agenda. Repeated boycotts of Council of Ministers meetings, driven by cabinet members belonging to the Amal Movement and close to Hezbollah, have resulted in an institutional paralysis that has kept the government inactive for more than 70 days. A situation criticised by President Michel Aoun, who criticised the 'Party of God' and called for an "urgent" national dialogue. 

Mikati, the tycoon who held the reins of government in two previous stages, has offered his head if this ends the blockade against the executive. The blockade was triggered by the appointment of Judge Tarek Bitar as the investigating judge in the case of the Beirut port explosion, one of the largest non-nuclear detonations in history that killed more than 200 people, injured some 7,500 and devastated several of the capital's neighbourhoods in August 2020. 

Bitar resumed the investigations in December despite strong pressure from Hezbollah and its partners. There is some fear among the political elite of a possible guilty verdict for senior institutional officials linked to the Amal Movement. So much so that the magistrate indicted a long list of Amal members suspected of the negligence that led to the explosion at the port, where some 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, a chemical compound used in both fertilisers and bombs, were stored. 

Hezbollah's obstruction of justice is not new. The militia has been able to consolidate its power through surreptitious deals with the country's political elites and has been able to capitalise on the weaknesses of the Lebanese state, including by eschewing violent imposition. This strategy has allowed it to control the Syrian border unchallenged, run the port of Beirut for criminal purposes and deploy its own military wing with the connivance of the government. 

President Aoun's recent criticism of Hezbollah sets a precedent and highlights the rift between the Maronite Christian leader's formation, the Free Patriotic Movement, and the so-called 'Party of God'. "The dangers are increasing and threaten the unity of the nation," Aoun said. "Unfortunately, the components of the current system refuse to give up their privileges and do not take into account the situation of the people," he said, referring to members of Amal and Hezbollah. 

The disagreement between the two parties has been fraying the alliance that has been in place since 2006, aggravated by the disagreement over the date of the new legislative elections. Parliament set them for 27 March, while Aoun proposed holding them in May and refused to ratify it, challenging the Speaker of the House and leader of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri. Days later, Prime Minister Mikati signed Interior Minister Basam Maulaui's decree calling for the elections to be held on 15 May. 

The World Bank concluded in a report published in October that Lebanon's financial crisis could be included among the first three most severe global crisis episodes "since the mid-19th century". A devastating diagnosis that comes on the heels of a $55 billion plunge in Lebanese GDP in 2018 and a more than 37% drop in real GDP per capita, contractions normally associated with periods of conflict or war. 

Inflation has reached unprecedented levels, close to 200%, while the Lebanese lira has devalued by 90% against the US dollar. These figures are compounded by the exponential rise in fuel prices, which has provoked riots in the streets. In short, the material reality of the country translates into a shortage of basic supplies and, above all, an energy shortage that has plunged Beirut into darkness. 

The better-off have been able to rely on individual electricity generators, but most of the country's neighbourhoods use candles as their only means of lighting. Public utilities are barely provided with the minimum resources and blackouts are recurrent. The coronavirus pandemic only deepened the crisis, putting the health system on the ropes to cope with the volume of infections. 

The prime minister's office announced at the end of the year that negotiations with the World Bank for funding from the agency, which provided financial assistance to the country after the Beirut port explosion, will be concluded with positive results in the first months of 2022. To date, the World Bank has allocated more than 33 million euros to Lebanon to provide financial assistance to Lebanese public school teachers. 

Meanwhile, the government has proved unable to solve the energy shortage. Energy Minister Walid Fayad conveyed to the prime minister the feasibility of signing an imminent electricity deal with Jordan. Such a deal would go some way to alleviating the current situation and allowing the Lebanese people to face the new year with greater dignity.