Abiy Ahmed threatens to humiliate rivals amid tensions with Egypt and Somalia
- Why is Egypt worried about Ethiopia building a dam on the Nile River?
- Why is Ethiopia wary of the Egypt-Somalia alliance?
The escalating tension between Egypt and Ethiopia over the construction and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) does not seem to be resolved after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed threatened: ‘Anyone who plans an attack on national sovereignty should think ten times’.
‘We will not allow them to harm us and we will humiliate anyone who dares to threaten us,’ Abiy Ahmed said during the Sovereignty Day celebrations. ‘We will not negotiate with anyone over the sovereignty and dignity of Ethiopians,’ he said.
Abiy Ahmed said the East African country had ‘no intention of inciting conflict’. But he said that ‘near and far should know that we often have to shame and repel those who dare to invade us’. ‘Whoever is planning to invade Ethiopia should think not once but ten times because one of the most important things we Ethiopians know is defence,’ the Ethiopian leader added.
Why is Egypt worried about Ethiopia building a dam on the Nile River?
Egypt, Africa's second largest country by population, is trapped. The deals struck between Addis Ababa with the breakaway Somaliland region and the operation of the Ethiopian dam on the Blue Nile have put Egypt in a difficult situation, as it is 97% dependent on the Nile for its water needs.
85% of the water that makes up the Nile, the world's longest river at 6,650 kilometres, passes through the GERD dam.
Cairo and Addis Ababa have been at loggerheads for years, accusing each other over the massive GERD project, which Egypt sees as a threat to its water security. Especially with Ethiopia's announcement of the fifth phase of filling the dam, which could elevate Egypt's water crisis to levels that force Egypt into restrictions on water use on its territory.
Part of the joint tasks that Egypt offered to deploy in Somalia relate to the programme for the replacement of the AU-led ATMIS mission whose main task is related to the pursuit and fight against the Al-Shabaab terrorist group.
Why is Ethiopia wary of the Egypt-Somalia alliance?
The situation in the Horn of Africa has been deteriorating since Ethiopia last month accused unidentified parties of attempting to destabilise the region following the arrival of Egyptian military personnel on Somali territory for the signing of an agreement between the two.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia are also rising following the signing of a sea access agreement between Somaliland separatists and Abiy Ahmed's government. Mogadishu describes this as an attack on national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The point of contention is the transfer of more than 20 kilometres of Somali coastline over the next 50 years to Ethiopia, which has said it will establish a naval base and commercial port.
Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but Mogadishu considers it part of its territory.
In return, the separatists' administration claimed that the government in Addis Ababa would officially recognise the region, a fact that the Ethiopian authorities have yet to confirm.
In the midst of the tensions, Turkey has emerged as the main mediator. For weeks now, talks have been taking place indirectly between delegations from Ethiopia and Egypt in an attempt to resolve the conflict, although no major progress has been made so far. Meanwhile, the arrival of Egyptian military personnel in Somalia continues unabated. Troops are being trained by Turkey.