Afghanistan, mission unaccomplished

The war in Afghanistan is one of the great failed experiments of the United States and its allies. The attempt to establish a Western-style democracy has cost countless economic, material and, above all, human resources. Twenty years later, the goal has not been achieved, and the troops are withdrawing, leaving the country in chaos. It is now time to look back and analyse how it began, what was done and what it has been used for.

During the Soviet invasion, many Afghan women and children had to emigrate to Pakistan to avoid becoming victims of the war. During this time, their education was provided by madrassas funded by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. These war orphans would swell the ranks of the fundamentalist students known as "Taliban" (Pashtun for "student") who soon carried the word of Allah into what were once the lands of their fathers and grandfathers.

In Afghanistan, this movement emerged in the 1990s, and it was under the leadership of Mullah Omar that they began to strengthen and take control of certain major cities, even seizing control of Kabul in 1996, wresting power from President Rabbani. It is also important to note the ethnic background of the actors involved.

Two major ethnic groups can be distinguished in Afghanistan, the Pashtuns, who can be further subdivided into the Ghilzai and Durrani, and the Tajiks. The Ghilzai are, on the whole, a hill tribe, nomads and field labourers. The majority of the Taliban are drawn from this group. In contrast, the Durrani are an urban tribe, descendants of Afghanistan's founder, Ahmad Durrani, and are often the ruling caste in the country.

The second largest ethnic group in Afghanistan are the Tajiks, who are mostly traders, They are mostly traders but also engage in agriculture. They ruled Afghanistan in the post-Soviet era until they were overthrown by the Taliban in 1996. They fled north to form what is known as the "Northern Alliance".

In October 1999, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1267, which established the connection between Al-Qaeda and the Muslim fundamentalist movement known as the Taliban. This decision followed a surge in the popularity of leader Osama bin Laden. Even then, both Al-Qaeda and the Taliban were described as terrorist groups, thus laying a foundation that would give legitimacy to the invasion that was to take place two years later.

Following the attack on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center on 11 September 2001, then US President George W. Bush declared a "war on terror". Although none of the perpetrators of the infamous attack were Afghans, Al-Qaeda's logistical base was in Afghanistan, and the country was then targeted.

The US military, supported by some allies, launched Operation Enduring Freedom, better known as OEF (Operation Enduring Freedom), which aimed to combat terrorism, both in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Initially, OEF-Afghanistan consisted of bombing strategic areas supported by the Northern Alliance, a coalition of ethnic Afghans, mostly Tajiks, whose leaders included the ousted Taliban president Burhanuddin Rabbani, but ended up being a purely counter-insurgency operation on the ground.

The initial success of the mission led to the Taliban's retreat and the escape of Osama bin Laden, who would remain unaccounted for for years. This scenario prompted the UN Security Council to pass Resolution 1378, according to which the United Nations would play a central role in establishing a transitional administration for Afghanistan. In December 2001, different political factions in Afghanistan signed, under the auspices of the UN, the Bonn Agreement, which established Hamid Karzai as the interim leader of the new Afghan government. In 2002, Karzai was officially elected President of the Transitional Government.

Another resolution, 1378, promoted the sending of troops for reconstruction and the promotion of stability, as well as humanitarian aid. Following this decision, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was established, which, as of August 2003, would be led by NATO and would aim to secure Kabul. ISAF troops, initially composed of around 5,000 soldiers, were expanded to 65,000 in 2006.

In this scenario, therefore, two military operations in Afghanistan converge: ISAF and OEF-Afghanistan.

As difficult as it may be to differentiate between the two missions, ISAF and OEF-A had different objectives. ISAF, which had the larger contingent of the two, was responsible for operations in support of Afghan troops and stabilisation of the region, with a strong emphasis on local support to combat insurgents. The second, largely made up of special operations and US air force units, was dedicated exclusively to counter-terrorism. This operation was conducted primarily by the US and the UK, although other countries also participated.

OEF-A was undoubtedly the most controversial mission. The construction of Bagram prison by the US is one of the most remembered events because of the interrogation methods used. This military operation also resulted in numerous civilian casualties, many of which were in the media spotlight. All of this generated a significant backlash against the foreign troops and damaged ISAF's reputation and its relations with the Afghan population, causing significant delays in Afghan support for the fight against the Taliban.

The various missions within ISAF were more conciliatory and less military in nature. Through the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), they engaged in clearing mined areas, rebuilding villages and towns, and training Afghan security forces. Although led by the military, the PRTs included civilian personnel. Their aim was to reach out to the various local leaders to promote the legitimacy of the local government leaders to promote the legitimacy of the UN-installed transitional government. However, this work was too often overshadowed by the actions of the OEF-A.

In January 2015, US President Barack Obama ended this operation and in its place began Operation Freedom's Sentinel (OFS), which drastically reduced the number of troops deployed on the ground and focused on supporting and training Afghan security forces.

In November 2006, at the NATO Summit in Riga, Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer set 2008 as the deadline for the Afghan Army to take control of all its security forces. The strengthening of al-Qaida, however, forced NATO to send an additional 5,000 troops in 2009 to train the Afghan army and police. Later that year, the US government announced 35,000 more troops to add to the 65,000 already in Afghanistan.
 

In May 2011, Obama announced that the US military had eliminated Osama bin Laden, who was in Pakistan, and that it would begin to reduce the number of troops on the ground. But the years that followed were marked by a gradual increase in violence in the country. In 2017, both the US and NATO still had 13,576 military personnel in Afghanistan. The Taliban were proving that they were far from defeated, and that Afghanistan's security forces could not cope with the threat they posed. The capture of Sangin in 2017, following a Taliban offensive marked by a major strike against an Afghan military base in Mazar-i-Sharif, among other events, was evidence of their strengthening.

In 2020, negotiations between the US and the Taliban, begun two years earlier in Doha, began to bear fruit. In November of that year, US Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller announced that the number of troops in Afghanistan would be halved by January 2021. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that too early a troop withdrawal could allow Afghanistan to become a "safe space" for terrorist groups and for Daesh to rebuild its caliphate.

To date, since newly elected President Biden announced the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have continued to gain ground on the Afghan government. They now occupy the entire territory, following their triumphal entry into Kabul. After twenty years of war, nothing seems to have been achieved in Afghanistan.

The few advances made during these years, such as the incorporation of girls and women into the education system or the emergence of new media, could be rendered useless if a Taliban regime is installed. One of their main objectives is to impose Islamic law, which is supported by a certain part of the population. This would mean a reversal of the social gains achieved by the current system of government.

The increase in their power has made it clear that Afghan troops were not prepared to maintain the country's stability. We should therefore ask: what has happened to the years of ISAF/OFS training? Why do parts of the population continue to reject foreign troops?

Afghanistan is known as the nation of wars. Since 1747, when the Durrani dynasty was founded and laid the foundations for what is now Afghanistan, its citizens have not been able to enjoy a prolonged period of peace. This means that Afghans, including the Taliban, are, in one way or another, used to the difficulties of war, regardless of whether it is between Afghan tribes or against foreign actors. But the difficulty of the mission lies not simply in the war experience of the Taliban and their sympathisers, but in the support they enjoy from the population, the ethnic intricacies among the different Afghan tribes and the geopolitics of the region.

The Taliban, with little in the way of advanced weaponry but with the support of some of the Ghilzai population and even Durrani Pashtuns, and the inexhaustible resource of opium exports, are a force capable of standing up to the NATO coalition. It is It is worth remembering that 90% of the world's heroin comes from Afghanistan, which has made the Taliban one of the best financed non-state groups.

To these factors it is important to add the deep corruption of the Afghan government and the resulting lack of morale among the country's security forces. Both Afghan police and military personnel did not receive adequate equipment or even regular pay, as their pay often ended up in the pockets of their superiors. Demoralisation among the security forces was evident, and many were unwilling to risk their lives for a corrupt government. Meanwhile, the Taliban were fighting for what they believed in, a far greater motivation that compensated for the fact that they were outgunned by the Afghan government.

It is essential to take all these elements into account when analysing why the international missions in Afghanistan failed. The country's internal dynamics, corruption, drug trafficking, the support of the local population and Pakistan's strategic location are some of the elements that make fighting the Taliban an extremely complicated mission.

The hope that was once pinned on intra-Afghan negotiations has gradually faded, as it has become clear that they have no future. The Taliban no longer need to engage in dialogue, let alone give in to the Afghan government's demands. The Taliban have been gaining power and ground, while the government has lost all legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens and is defended by demoralised and under-resourced soldiers. Without the support of foreign forces, the Afghan army has not been able to cope with this threat.

In the face of insurgent attacks, some former Afghan military commanders have mobilised their own private militias. This could lead to a return to the early 1990s, when guerrilla warfare took the lives of thousands of civilians and left cities in ruins. Political and social disorder could lead to instability and insecurity in the country, with the civilian population bearing the brunt.

Another problem is that the vacuum left by the US and its allies in Afghanistan will undoubtedly be exploited by other countries. They could begin to provide resources and weapons to different armed groups in the area, thus establishing their influence. Of particular concern is the role that Pakistan could play in financing the Taliban. 

Pakistan is the region that has the greatest interest in getting Kabul on its side. Its border problems with Afghanistan, the claim of a Pashtunistan by some tribes and India's possible influence on some Afghan leaders force Pakistan to play cards in the country. And, unfortunately, the best hand for Islamabad is that of the Taliban. In this sense, we can see how India and Pakistan are engaged in a proxy war in Afghanistan by influencing different leaders in order to advance the geopolitical interests of both countries.

Since 2002, the EU has allocated more than 4 billion euros to Afghanistan, making it the largest recipient of humanitarian aid. However, this aid is conditional on the fulfilment of certain elements, such as the promotion of democratic values and respect for human rights. The arrival of the Taliban in power could mean the total or partial interruption of humanitarian aid from abroad, which would lead to a real humanitarian catastrophe. As always, the civilian population would be the most affected, especially those translators who were supporting coalition troops and the most vulnerable people, women and children.