Africa in transition
- Preamble
- I. Executive summary
- II. Expected strategic shifts
- III. Transformational dynamics
- IV. Key developments 2025
- V. Outlook and recommendations
- Methodological note
Preamble
The year 2025 promises to be a crucial period for the African continent, particularly in its northern and Sahelian regions. The dynamics observed since the early 2020s suggest profound transformations that could reshape regional balances in the long term.
This prospective note, the result of in-depth analysis and exclusive information, aims to shed light on the main expected changes and their implications.
I. Executive summary
At the dawn of 2025, Africa is at a crossroads. Several converging developments suggest the emergence of a new regional geopolitical paradigm. The possible final resolution of the Moroccan Sahara issue, the rise of the Alliance of Sahel states and the US offensive return to Atlantic Africa are indicators of a profound reconfiguration of continental balances.
II. Expected strategic shifts
The transformation of the African geopolitical landscape must be articulated around several major axes, the implications of which will extend well beyond the 2025 timeframe. These developments, although independent in their genesis, are part of a global dynamic of recomposition of regional power relations.
A. Settlement of the Saharan dispute
The Moroccan Sahara issue appears to be entering its final phase after decades of status quo. Several indicators point to a definitive resolution of this historic dispute. The probable classification of the Polisario as a terrorist organisation would mark a decisive turning point, validating Morocco's consistent position on the real nature of this movement. This development, together with the separatist organisation's expected exit from the African Union, would create the conditions for wider international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty.
The announcement, expected in late summer 2025, of further major diplomatic recognitions, including by permanent members of the Security Council, could accelerate the final closure of the dossier at the United Nations. This diplomatic sequence would not only enshrine the Moroccan vision, but also pave the way for a new era of regional cooperation.
B. New regional architecture
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is becoming a central actor in the regional reconfiguration. Its institutional strengthening, expected by 2025, should be accompanied by an expansion to new members, gradually redrawing the map of influences in West Africa. This rise to power, which could even challenge ECOWAS, testifies to the growing desire of Sahelian states to take control of their common destiny.
The development of an integrated security architecture within the AES represents an important innovation in the approach to regional security challenges. This development responds both to immediate threats and to a long-term strategic vision for the stabilisation of the Sahel.
C. Repositioning of competencies
By 2025, the US presence in Africa, particularly on its Atlantic coast, is expected to intensify. The return of the Trump administration would be accompanied by a more offensive policy, aimed at definitively establishing US status as an Atlantic pivot state in the region.
At the same time, the emergence of a ‘New Berlin Pact’ among international powers could redefine the rules of influence on the continent. Unlike its historical predecessor of 1885, this unwritten pact would respect local sovereignty and exclude the use of military force in the competition for influence.
III. Transformational dynamics
The changes expected by 2025 are part of a broader process of transformation of the continent. These dynamics, which touch on both energy and security issues, are drawing the contours of an Africa in the midst of reinvention.
A. Energy developments
Morocco is expected to undergo a radical transformation of its energy status from the first quarter of 2025. This change, which combines the accelerated development of renewable energies and the development of new fossil resources, could redefine regional energy balances. This would strengthen the Kingdom's position as a regional energy hub, creating new opportunities for cooperation with neighbouring countries.
B. Reconfigurations of the Maghreb
The Maghreb region is likely to experience significant developments, particularly in the context of tensions between Morocco and Algeria. Internal developments in Algeria could catalyse new regional dynamics. This transition period could pave the way for new forms of regional cooperation, once the current tensions have eased.
Stabilisation of the Sahel
The gradual stabilisation of the Sahel should be accelerated through a holistic approach combining security and development. Strengthening security cooperation mechanisms, together with the development of economic corridors, could create the conditions for lasting stability. Morocco's Atlantic access initiative for the Sahel countries will play a crucial role in this dynamic.
IV. Key developments 2025
The year will be marked by several major events that will serve as catalysts for the expected transformations. The AfHEA Conference in Kigali in March will lay the foundations for a new approach to health resilience. The Europe-North Africa Convention in Paris in May will explore the new frontiers of technological innovation. The Sustainable Development Forum in New York in July will serve as a platform for affirming Africa's new ambitions.
V. Outlook and recommendations
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a turning point in the transformation of the African continent. The convergence of several factors - the resolution of historical conflicts, the emergence of new alliances, energy shifts - could create the conditions for a new regional development paradigm.
The actors concerned will need to:
- Closely monitor developments on key diplomatic issues.
- Anticipate the implications of regional reconfigurations
- Adapt their strategies to new emerging realities
- Seize the opportunities created by these transformations.
Methodological note
This prospective analysis is based on own information and an in-depth study of current trends. It aims to inform decision-makers about likely developments, while identifying key points to watch.