Aguila Saleh visita Rusia tras los avances diplomáticos en Libia 

The speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh Issa, has arrived in Moscow to meet, among others, the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. The aim of the visit is to discuss the latest progress made in settling the Libyan conflict. The House of Representatives is the legislative body based in Tobruk which, through the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the leadership of Khalifa Haftar, exercises control over the eastern part of Libya. Aguila Saleh had to deal with the resignation of the government headed by Prime Minister Al-Thani in September amidst a wave of social protests and in the framework of a series of meetings and gatherings to achieve a resolution of the situation the country has been experiencing for almost a decade. Over the past three months, meetings have taken place both inside and outside Libya which have fuelled the international community's optimism regarding the Libyan conflict.  

Morocco, Switzerland and Egypt are some of the countries that have hosted different types of meetings to build bridges between the two sides. At the end of October the 5+5 Military Commission for Libya was held in Geneva, where representatives of the GNA and LNA signed a permanent ceasefire that has stabilised the situation in the country pending further progress in the political and diplomatic field, always under the watchful eye of Russia and Turkey, two of the players that are having the greatest influence on the clashes of the last few years of the conflict. 

Following the meeting in Geneva to discuss the military context, just a couple of weeks ago Tunisia hosted the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, sponsored by UNSMIL and the UN special representative for Libya, Stephane Williams. The success of the talks, which have led to a political transition resulting in an election process in December next year, when a new president and parliament would be elected for the country, should be taken with caution. The lack of representation of some important players in the resolution of the Libyan conflict, in addition to the presence at this meeting of a significant number of people linked to the Muslim Brothers and, therefore, to a certain extent, to Turkey's interests in the region, raises doubts.   

These aspects are some of those that will be discussed in Russia between Aguila Saleh and Lavrov during this visit-it should be remembered that they already met at the beginning of July-as they understand that the presence of representatives linked to the Muslim Brothers would be detrimental to Russian interests, to Tobruk and to the LNA in this future Libya that may arise, if the agreed political transition is certified. 

While diplomacy is advancing to try to solve the entrenched conflict in Libya, the man at the head of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, has begun to mobilise troops in eastern Libya. The spokesman for the GNA's operations in the area of Sirte and Jufra, in the centre of the country, has stated that the presence of the GNA at the front is being strengthened with troops sent from Benghazi and other cities under Haftar's control. This, according to the GNA, would be in violation of the ceasefire agreed in Geneva and the subsequent talks at the aforementioned forum in Tunis. Saleh's visit to Russia together with the Haftar movements exemplifies the doubts that remain regarding this applauded progress in settling the conflict in eastern Libya.  

The movement of troops is not the only thing that concerns the GNA; in addition to the presence of Sudanese mercenaries and the Russian Wagner Company, the presence of Serbian-built LRSVM Morava anti-aircraft systems of Emirati origin has recently been noted in manoeuvres conducted by Haftar-dependent militias. The United Arab Emirates is another supporter of the LNA, which, in addition to supporting it with this anti-aircraft system, has now provided air capabilities to the LNA through drones.  

Neither of the military parties to the conflict is giving up on the fighting, although they are respecting the ceasefire agreement signed in Geneva, both sides are remaining in a tense situation of calm that could explode as soon as the diplomatic route fails again. In any event, the agreement to hold an election in December 2021 gives some hope of a solution to the Libyan crisis, as it marks a milestone in achieving such a concrete outcome, with the elements that should guarantee this political transition yet to be decided upon.