Argelia afronta dificultades en su apuesta por el proyecto de gas nigeriano

Algeria and its aspirations to gain influence in North Africa and the Middle East could be at risk. Delays in work on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano project caused by financial and security difficulties in the region are a major setback to Algeria's planning. The government of Abdelmajdid Tebboune had expected to be able to operate the pipeline in the first quarter of 2023, which has now been ruled out. The intention was - and still is for when it is operational - to take economic and geopolitical advantage in a context of global energy crisis, positioning itself as a link in the supply chain since this pipeline transports gas from the southern region to the north of Nigeria.
 
The requirement for the project to get underway was that it be at least 70% complete, which is still far from being the case. Local authorities allege mismanagement that has resulted in an overall increase in the bill by up to 570% more than initially stipulated. The Nigerian government's inability to inject additional funds to complete construction, as well as security risks resulting from terrorist activity in the region - mainly caused by Boko Haram - have slowed the project to the point where it is unable to meet the deadlines that should have allowed it to become operational this first quarter.

"The project faces a number of funding and security obstacles, and is beset by suspicions of corruption," says a local report on the delays in its completion. It further states that "the Nigerian National Petroleum Company insists on completing the project, as its cost has been inflated by 570%, threatening to abandon it". This has prompted officials from the company itself to travel to the field to check on progress, which, indeed, is not what was initially expected. However, one of the positive effects that has been verified is that, despite the withdrawal of Chinese companies in charge of part of the financing, the works have not stopped at any time.
 
The reason for these Chinese companies to pull out of the project was the growing bill, according to the previously cited report: "Chinese institutions that would have financed 85% of the pipeline project withdrew because the cost of completion was inflated by 570%, and that both the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the China Export Insurance Agency would have provided $2380 million in financing for the project". The remaining 15% of the financing was to be provided by Nigerian companies, which translates into a figure of around $420 million.

This series of unforeseen events was exacerbated precisely by reports, now denied, that work had been halted. This was also a setback for Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, who had hoped to inaugurate the pipeline. However, at the end of May, Tinubu Bola Ahmed will assume power and will be in charge of certifying its commissioning. Abuja, whose gas reserves are the largest on the continent, estimated at five and a half trillion cubic metres, aims to exploit its gas resources before 2050, Europe's target date for achieving carbon neutrality.
 
The chief executive of Nigeria's state oil company, Milli Kyari, said: "We have missed some schedules, but we are trying to catch up". What is clear is that, despite efforts, catching up is going to be mission impossible. Kyari himself points to the end of the year as the most likely date for the opening of the pipeline: "We have implemented a number of necessary interventions, including the additional resources needed to deliver the project, and by the third quarter of 2023 we will complete all the welding work on the line, which means we can activate it by the end of this year".

The delay in the project is not Algeria's only concern when it comes to rapprochement with Nigeria. Morocco is making great strides on its second shared project with the Nigerians, something that Algiers is keeping an eye on. Tebboune's side cannot afford a further loss of influence in a key region. The country's social, institutional and foreign policy crises are forcing the executive to focus its efforts on consistent progress. Hence, the regional leader's omnipresence worries an increasingly depleted Algerian government.