Algeria: Tebboune in Moscow, a trip full of dangers
The invitation was extended by Putin on 31 January 2023 during a telephone conversation with Abdelmadjid Tebboune. The Kremlin chief urgently needed support in his war against Ukraine. He hoped to bring Algeria into his fold, and with it other African states. The visit was scheduled for May, according to a press release from the Algerian presidency.
Since the phone conversation, there has been no further news from Russia on the visit. And rightly so. Algeria is far from taking an open position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Algeria no longer has any influence on the international stage that Moscow could count on. Algeria is also very docile towards France, another adversary that is part of the Western anti-Russian coalition. It was too much for Vladimir Putin to remove the Algerian president's visit from his agenda in one fell swoop.
In Algiers, we waited for a long time for news from Moscow. Nothing. Isolated on the international stage, banned from being represented by its president at the Arab League summit in Jeddah, and suffering diplomatic setbacks too numerous to count, the military-political regime desperately needs a lifeline. The last-minute improvised visit to Lisbon did not have the desired effect. On the contrary, it was a double humiliation for Tebboune. The Portuguese-based diaspora threw rotten eggs at him, and the host country gave him a very cold welcome. Tebboune was expecting the ceremony of a state visit. In the end, he was not greeted by any officials on his arrival at Lisbon airport, nor was he accompanied by any officials on his departure.
To fill this gap, an invitation was extended to Dimitri Chougaev, Director of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation. On Thursday, 8 March, he was received at the headquarters of the Army General Staff by the country's real number one, Army General Saïd Chengriha. He was offered tempting trade and political deals. Both are of the utmost interest to Moscow.
In commercial terms, the Algerian army has the largest budget since the country's independence. A pot of 18 billion dollars. Twice the previous year's budget. The lion's share will undoubtedly go to the historical comrade. In these times of food shortages for Russians due to the Western embargo, Moscow needs money. A lot of money. To meet the costs of a war whose financial burden is becoming increasingly heavy and unbearable. At least ten billion dollars is a breath of fresh air. The famous arms contracts should therefore be signed as soon as possible.
The other aspect, which is also very interesting, is strategic. Moscow, which has lost a lot of ground in Africa since the fall of the Soviet empire, needs to regain a foothold on the continent. Neither Angola, Guinea nor Libya, once allies of the former USSR, are now in a position to offer Moscow a foothold in Africa. Only the Algerian regime, lacking popular legitimacy and isolated on the international stage, is willing to give its all to the Russians if it can regain a semblance of respect in the concert of nations.
The Algerian military has suggested to its esteemed guest Dmitry Chougaev that a visit to Russia by the Algerian president is essential if such important agreements are to be signed. The Kremlin is not prepared to be taken in by such a tempting offer. And, without delay, they are extending the invitation for next week.
Abdelmadjid Tebboune, lacking charisma and highly impressionable, risks losing his head in the face of the powerful and arrogant Russian president. Putin's strong personality is likely to crush the Algerian president, who is not used to internal or external confrontation. Thus, in order to save the regime from its mentors, the generals who are virtually all pro-Moscow, there is a good chance that Algeria will be dragged, against its will, into the conflict that pits Russia against the West. If he refused, Putin would not hesitate for a second to humiliate his host, as he has already done with Macron, Merkel and so many others. Tebboune is on tenterhooks. It is not easy to play with the Russian bear.