Although this battle has been won by the EU, we have the enemy at home

María Senovilla, contributor to the magazine Atalayar and other media, analyses current affairs and the first reactions from Ukraine to the unblocking of EU aid for the programme De Cara al Mundo on Onda Madrid. 

María, from your situation in Kiev, Ukraine. Relief at the unblocking of aid from the European Union. 

A lot of relief. We are at a time that was particularly hard, because the wave of bombings against cities, mainly against the city of Kharkov, which is under daily fire, also added to the possibility of a forced military mobilisation that the Armed Forces have not yet explained in detail and which has many citizens very worried. 

When Hungary unblocked the aid, the news was greeted with relief in Kiev. Although this battle has been won by the European Union, the enemy is partly at home because Viktor Orban agreed to unblock this aid after two months of keeping it paralysed due to pressure from the rest of the Union's partners, who even voted in favour of applying article 7 and auditing the 10 billion euros that the European Union has given Hungary on condition that it does not put obstacles in the way of assistance to Ukraine. 

In fact, after the news of the release was published and despite the Polish prime minister and other EU members saying that it had not been so difficult to convince him, Orban made controversial statements saying that he had made sure that Hungary's money would not end up in Ukraine because they had a fiscal control mechanism for the funds and that Hungary's position on the Ukrainian war remained the same. In other words, they advocate a ceasefire and negotiations that would give Russia a tactical advantage and also allow the Kremlin to keep the European Union. 

Have the Ukrainians lost much ground in the meantime? Because the Russian offensive continues the shelling and, as usual, unfortunately against civilian targets. 

Not only is it continuing, but it has intensified in January. These are not heavy losses. The Russians have made advances by taking small villages, which in square kilometres does not translate into heavy losses. But it has greatly increased the pressure on all battle fronts and, moreover, it has increased it at a time when ammunition is arriving in dribs and drabs.  

Drone attacks have multiplied and the trenches are filled with soldiers who were not professional military personnel before the invasion. They are civilian volunteers who have stepped forward to defend their homes and who are now, in some cases, overwhelmed in trying to contain the dozens of attacks launched daily by Russian troops, who continue to maintain the Soviet tactic of putting tens of thousands of men against Ukrainian machine guns and, in the end, as a matter of volume rather than tactics, manage to advance. In any case, the situation on the front right now is worrying and I think they are in some points quite overextended. 

On the political issue, the publication of the possible dismissal of the army chief has caused a certain amount of commotion. What about the publication about the army chief? 

Not quite a stir, in Ukraine everything came to a standstill on Monday evening after the publication of the dismissal on a Telegram channel, which is not even official. The announcement stated that Zelensky would dismiss the army chief, who for Ukrainians is a figure with more social support than the country's president himself. Whatever happens, Ukrainians support the army chief's decisions. Zaludny represents the spirit of the Ukrainian citizen. Moreover, all of Zaludny's possible replacements are personalities who do not belong to the current ranks of the Armed Forces. 

His possible successors, the names most often mentioned, are General Sirski, who is in charge of the entire eastern front, also a great strategist, but with a Soviet mentality, is older. And the other possible name that comes to mind is that of the commander-in-chief of military intelligence, of the GUR, Budanov, these are people who are the antipodes of Zaludny's way of seeing the war. They are, I insist, older fighters with a Soviet strategic mentality, and the only thing that could happen, if the termination that has been rumbling around for some time were to take place and Zaludny were to be replaced by one of these generals with a more Soviet mentality, is that the war could stagnate and plan for the longer term. 

Because Soviet strategies are wars of attrition, trench warfare in which there is no attempt to seek the advantage, perhaps, of asymmetric combat, which is part of NATO doctrine. 

I don't know if NATO, precisely the NATO countries that are supporting Ukraine and President Zelensky, would be very much in agreement with these older-minded generals. Maria, what do you know about the entry into action of the F-16 fighters, and what about the Abrams, the American battle tanks? Have they not entered into combat? 

They have not entered combat. More than 50 Abrams were sent over the course of last year and the F-16s, some of which are already in Ukraine and some of which are apparently yet to arrive. And that, in principle, neither the tanks, nor the battle tanks, nor the planes are expected to enter combat. 

The latest statements by Ukrainian officials are that the Russian offensive force will last until spring, which is when they foresee that they will be somewhat disbanded and that they will then integrate strategies in which the F-16s can enter into action or that their presence in the skies will be delayed until the end of the year. 

We have to consider that in order to fly an F-16, pilots have to undergo training that under normal circumstances would take years, and which is now being accelerated as much as possible, but it would be crazy to put an unprepared pilot at the controls of such an expensive and necessary aircraft if we want to turn around what is happening on the front lines of combat. So, from what can be deduced from the statements made by these officers and those I have asked myself, they are in no hurry to put these expensive, modern, precise weapons into combat, so that they might be destroyed in the first battle they fight. 

Moreover, the propaganda effect of shooting down an F-16 or destroying the Abrams would be terrible indeed. Maria, we are talking about Hungary, but in troubled waters there are undesirable profits. What is happening in Bulgaria? Are they giving citizenship to some Russians with money? 

Yes, they are. A high-ranking Bulgarian official was denouncing an illegal scheme to give European citizenship to Russian nationals. We recall that to obtain Bulgarian citizenship is automatically to obtain a passport valid in the European Union, because it is one of its members. It is already two years since Bulgaria launched an investigation into an alleged scheme to sell passports to non-EU citizens, mostly Russians, Chinese and Arab nationals. 

So, well, it would appear that the scheme is producing these passports with false documents, because that is the crux of the matter, they have detected that all the documents that have been presented, or part of the documents that these people present, are false, and it is not known right now how many businessmen and Russian citizens have taken advantage of this corruption scheme, paying to obtain a Bulgarian passport and, therefore, a passport with which they can move and trade with the whole of the European Union. 

This also happens in Spain. You present yourself, you make an investment, I think it's 500,000 euros, more or less I think that's the scale, and you have the option of having Spanish citizenship. What happens, of course, is that in these circumstances we would have to have a very exhaustive, very strict control, so that undesirables do not slip in, even if they have a lot of money. 

And, above all, this nuance that in Bulgaria is being done with false documents, because in Spain, to gain access to the Green Card, which is what it's called, which means that you make a large investment and you have citizenship, obviously the documents are not false. You present a business plan and a development plan, which I imagine there will be entities that will look at it. With their validity and their legality. Here, simply, false documents, an envelope of money on the table and you have the passport.