The American election in the face of coronavirus disruption

What impact will the coronavirus have on the U.S. presidential election? How is the American giant managing the spread of the pandemic? Can the Democrats take advantage of the current situation? Answering these and other questions has been the objective of the round table 'US Presidential Elections and the impact of COVID-19 in American global leadership' sponsored by the European University of Madrid (EMU).

The web meeting was held as part of Communication Week 2020 and was moderated by Professor of Communication and International Policy José María Peredo Pombo. The speakers were journalist Ramón Pérez Maura, researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano Carlota García Encina, consultant Daniel Ureña -and president of the Hispanic Council- and Alana Moceri, analyst and professor at the UEM.

All the participants agreed that the coronavirus has become a central issue in American political life; after all, the country has become the new centre of the epidemic. The participants described the coronavirus as Donald Trump's “war”, drawing historical parallels with other presidents who have gone to the polls with the country immersed in armed conflict. This is the case, for example, of George Bush Jr.

The pandemic factor has conditioned everything significantly, from the primary process in the Democratic Party to, surely, as the speakers point out, the November presidential elections, which have already become something similar to a plebiscite on the management of the health emergency by Donald Trump's government.

Perez Maura, an international columnist with a long history of reporting on the United States, recalled, however, that much of the health management in the country has been transferred to individual states. In the absence of a health system at the federal level, some of the governors are becoming more prominent in political management. In particular, Pérez Maura has referred to New Yorker Andrew Cuomo as one of the most visible faces of the Democrats over the past few weeks.

With all this, García Encina and Moceri did want to point out that, in spite of this, a large part of the responsibility for some important decisions, such as the possible reopening of the economy in the next few days, will fall on the shoulders of the White House. 

Likewise, Urena has acknowledged that the decisions that Trump will make in the next two or three weeks will be very present in voters' memories when the electoral appointment arrives. He also stressed that the game of storytelling will be important between now and the time Americans are called to the polls; gestures such as the withdrawal of funds from the World Health Organization (WHO) can be quite significant.

What are the chances that Joe Biden, Trump's future opponent, will make it to the November election? Although it is still too early to answer the question conclusively, it does seem clear that he will have more strength than was anticipated just a couple of months ago. This is the opinion of Pérez Maura, who warns that the veteran Democratic politician, who began the campaign without much strength, has found himself in a more advantageous position as a result of the economic crisis that the coronavirus may bring.

The journalist said that Trump has always based his successes on economic factors. However, the slowdown in the country's progress could have a very negative effect on him. The beneficiary could be Biden, although, in the words of Pérez Maura, he is not doing “anything special” in the eyes of public opinion. He warns, however, that within the party itself, there is still a “very relevant” division between the more centrist line of the presidential candidate and the left-wing track embodied by Bernie Sanders, who was his biggest rival in the primaries.

In this regard, Garcia Encina has noted that Biden is aware that he needs Sanders' supporters and, for this reason, has changed his message and approached some of Sanders' ideas regarding public services, such as education and, above all, health. He even seems to be assuming that the pandemic is perhaps the necessary impetus to rethink the country's social and economic model, a premise that would, a priori, fit more closely with the Vermont agenda.

With regard to Biden, the speakers have pointed out that another of the unknowns right now is who will be the person he designates as his potential vice-president. Moceri has stressed that the candidate has already said that it would be a woman, but even so, the question remains a question that has raised great expectations among most political analysts.

In any case, the speakers took the opportunity to highlight the fact that the country remains highly polarised despite the health emergency. As Moceri points out, a candidate with such little capacity to generate consensus as Trump causes his followers to continue giving him massive support and his detractors never consider voting for him.

In short, the uncertainty generated by the virus in all areas also permeates the electoral arena. However, the health and economic crisis seems to have opened a window of opportunity for Joe Biden to achieve a victory that seemed highly improbable only a few weeks ago.