Ankara continues its flight forward

Turkey is facing a very delicate situation. On the one hand, it has been experiencing great economic weakness for years, due among other things to the unrestrained fall of the lira. A reflection of this fragility has been the sale of 10 percent of the Istanbul Stock Exchange to Qatar in order to obtain some liquidity.

Furthermore, the forthcoming presidential elections may pose a problem for Erdogan if the opposition manages to hold together and get ahead, despite the police and judicial harassment to which it is subjected, which has led to the arrest of several leaders and public representatives.

In an attempt to address all this internally, Erdogan is pursuing a major regional expansionism with a strong presence and interference in the region's conflicts, whether in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh or Syria, in addition to increasing pressure in the eastern Mediterranean area, where he has had frictions with Cyprus, Greece, France and Germany.

The Turkish president is trying to hide behind the banner of nationalism and neo-Tomanism the difficult situation the country is facing, which has now also been aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Erdogan is trying to increase the national fervour in order to dynamite the opposition's chances of winning elections which, although scheduled for 2023, are likely to be brought forward in order to counterbalance an opposition that is not as united as it should be.

Ankara furthermore needs to address its dependence on the United States for weapons, something which has already caused it problems as it has been expelled from the F-35 consortium and Washington has therefore cancelled the sale of the plane as planned. Precisely, this has come about as a result of Turkey's attempt to diversify its military suppliers and take over the services of the Russian S-400 air defence system, which has caused much concern in the United States.

This departure of the group of countries that will have the modern F-35 goes hand in hand with the sanctions that the United States has implemented against the country because of its rapprochement with other rivals of Washington such as Russia and Iran. However, the United States has not been the only one, as friction in the Mediterranean has led the European Union to impose sanctions that will further undermine the country's complicated economic situation.

The Turkish president does not appear to be affected by all these setbacks, as he remains firm in his intention to interfere in the development of the conflicts in order to increase his influence and obtain benefits. Furthermore, the Turkish defence industry has obtained good results from the apparatus that have been tested in conflicts such as that of Libya or Upper Karabakh, particularly in the area of UAVs, which may enable it to win certain arms contracts that bring it benefits, as in the recent case of the purchase of Tunisia for $150 million.