Ankara sends Turkish intelligence chief to reinforce its role in Libya

The political situation in Libya - marked by a deep stalemate that has dragged on since the electoral abortion of December 2021, when, according to UN plans, the first steps towards a political transition to democracy were to be taken - seems to be attracting international attention during these first weeks of 2023. The North African country's position as one of the continent's largest oil producers, in the midst of the growing energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine, is beginning to be a decisive factor in the international community's decision to intervene in the complex Libyan situation. 

In recent days, the North African territory has hosted two foreign intelligence chiefs (including CIA Director William Burns), and has seen many of its top leaders fly to the Egyptian capital of Cairo in an attempt to promote dialogue between all parties involved, and to push for a negotiated solution to end the political impasse plaguing the country.

The head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation, retired Sergeant Hakan Fidan, arrived in Tripoli (Libyan capital) on Tuesday to meet the outgoing prime minister of the National Unity Government, Abdul Hamid Dbeibé, with Khaled Al-Mashri, president of the Libyan Supreme State Council (a legislative body designed by the UN to end the rivalry between the chamber closest to Marshal Haftar, the Libyan House of Representatives in Tobruk; and the central body that preceded it, the General National Congress), and with Mohamed al-Menfi, president of the Libyan Presidential Council (a collegiate body formed in 2015 and recognised by the international community to perform the functions of head of state). 

Although official reports suggest that the meeting was intended to discuss the roadmap for the new year, the holding of elections and the possibility of signing new agreements, several analysts quoted by Al Arab maintain that this visit highlights Ankara's fears of seeing its influence on Libyan soil reduced. In recent months, the good relations between the two powers and Turkey's leading role in Libya's politics and economy have crystallised in various military and energy Memoranda of Understanding (MoU). 

Thus, after an initial meeting with the head of the Dbeibé government, Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush, Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Adel Jumaa and Minister of Communications and Political Affairs Walid al-Lafi, the head of Turkish intelligence also met with President of the Presidential Council Mohamed al-Menfi, where the director of the Libyan Intelligence Service and the Turkish ambassador to Tripoli were also present.

However, beyond the information published by the Press Office of the Presidency Council and through the social networks of several politicians - stating that "the latest joint regional and international developments were discussed with Fidan", as well as "ways to overcome the obstacles facing [the political process] towards holding elections on constitutional and legal bases" - the interpretations of analysts and experts differ considerably from this official version. The Libya Update, a specialised media outlet, reported analyst Abd al-Rahim al-Burki as saying that "the head of Turkish intelligence managed to reach a political agreement for reconciliation between [Khaled] Al-Mashri and Dbeibé two days after the conclusion of the reconciliation conference organised by the Presidential Council [headed by Mohamed al-Menfi]".

The analyst claimed to be "in favour of fraternal reconciliation [between the two leaders of bodies designed in collaboration with the UN; the Government of National Unity and the Supreme State Council], but we are not in favour of political manoeuvring to maintain power", by which al-Burki was referring to the expiry of Dbeibé's mandate, which should have ended more than a year ago. 

The visit of William Burns, head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), like that of his Turkish counterpart, was also shrouded in secrecy, leaving only vague details. According to some Libyan media, Burns' explanations alluded to "the need to develop economic and security cooperation between the two countries", in line with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Government of National Unity, Al-Mangoush, who claimed that the meeting "paved the way for the elections". 

However, other analyses seem to be speculating on issues such as US and Western energy interests - which Burns is said to have gone to defend in the country -, the role that the Wagner Group mercenaries called in by Marshal Haftar - in the east - are playing in the situation, or the extradition of Abu Agila Mohammad Mas'ud, the suspected bomber who in 1988 destroyed an airliner over Scotland and killed 190 Americans. 

In the face of these rumours, statements by US State Department spokesman Ned Price did not shed any light. "Washington is engaged with Libyan leaders and their regional partners to set a date for elections in response to the desire of 2.5 million Libyans who have already registered to vote during the proposed elections [in December 2021]," he added.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.