Armenia and Azerbaijan, a long-standing territorial conflict resurfacing in times of pandemic

Tension is rising again in the Caucasus. Turkish troops have begun arriving in Azerbaijan for combined military exercises in the midst of military tension with Armenia, which has accused its neighbour of violating the ceasefire, both in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and on the border between the two nations. Azerbaijan welcomed the Turkish soldiers with a ceremony at the Umit Bridge, located at the Sidirik border crossing of the Republic of Nakhchivan, before the Eurasian nation's troops headed for their respective military units in the capital Baku and Nakhchivan, according to digital Al Masdar News. 

These military exercises - which will begin Wednesday as part of the 13-day military cooperation agreement signed between the two countries - will involve military personnel, armored vehicles, artillery and mortar mounts, as well as military aviation and air defense equipment from both armies, according to an official statement issued by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry to which the Daily Sabah newspaper has had access.  "The joint Azerbaijan-Turkey large-scale tactical and flight tactics exercises will be conducted in our country with the participation of the land and air forces of both countries," the statement said. 

Military tests involving the Land Forces will take place from August 1 to 5 in Baku and Nakhchivan, while exercises involving military aviation will be held from July 29 to August 10 in Baku, Nakhchivan, Ganja, Kurdamir and Yevlakh. During the maneuvers - explains Al Masdar News - the response of the forces in implementing the military command orders and firing from armored vehicles, artillery and mortars "at hypothetical enemy targets" will also be tested.

The long-standing territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has intensified in recent weeks. In this complicated scenario, two actors play a fundamental role: on the one hand, Ankara supports Azerbaijan, while Armenia is under Moscow's protective umbrella. The presidents of Russia and Turkey held a telephone conversation last Monday, after the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced the beginning of these military exercises, to analyze the worsening situation on the border that divides these two countries. "Vladimir Putin stressed the importance of preventing any kind of actions that could lead to the escalation of tension," the Kremlin said in an official statement. 

"The Ministry of Defense and the Armenian Armed Forces will monitor very closely the course and trends of the joint Azerbaijan-Turkey military exercises scheduled for July 29-August 10". These were the words used by the ministry's spokesperson, Shushan Stepanian, after knowing about the start of these military exercises. Thus, the Armenian Army has warned this Tuesday that it will closely observe the military exercises to be held in Azerbaijan, just two weeks after the intensification of fighting on the border that separates the two countries. 

The Armenian newspaper Azatutyun has reported in the last hours that the Defense Minister of his country, Davit Tonoyan, told the Russian ambassador in Yerevan, Sergei Kopyrkin, that the units of the Armenian army, as well as a Russian-Armenian military contingent, "continue to constantly monitor and analyze the Turkish-Azerbaijani military activities with all means of reconnaissance". For its part, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the same country has expressed its concern about these simulations, considering them to be part of "the provocative actions of Baku". They also consider that this type of exercise is aimed at "obstructing the efforts of international mediators to reduce the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and launch talks to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict".

The apparent calm that characterized this conflict in recent months completely disappeared on 12 July, when 12 soldiers, including a major general and a colonel, were killed and four others were injured during the border clashes. Azerbaijan blamed Armenia for the "provocative" actions. A week later, Turkey's National Security Council issued a statement after a meeting led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which the Eurasian nation reiterated its support for Azerbaijan, as well as calling on Armenia to end this type of aggression and "withdraw from the Azerbaijani lands it is occupying," according to TRT. 

Meanwhile, in recent hours and on the eve of the start of these military exercises, Azerbaijan and Armenia have accused each other of violating the ceasefire, both in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and on the border between the two countries. "In the last 24 hours units of the Armenian Armed Forces with precision rifles violated the ceasefire on 38 occasions in different sectors of the front," the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense said in a statement consulted by the EFE news agency. 

Apparently, although no casualties have been reported, the Armenian military opened fire on Azerbaijan. For its part, the Armenian Ministry of Defence has reported that on the night of 27-28 July, the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border was "relatively calm". "The adversary violated the ceasefire 17 times and fired 220 shots from various types of weapons against Armenian positions," they have reported. 

Atalayar analyst Diego Carcedo explained a few days ago that this confrontation "is a consequence of the deputation over the territory of the Upper Kabaja, or Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous territory whose sovereignty was a problem that left forgotten the process of disintegration of the Soviet Union. The origins of this dispute date back to 1916, although it intensified in the 1980s after the Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno-Karabakh asked to be incorporated into Armenia, leading to a war that killed more than 25,000 people.  The unhealed wounds of this war have reappeared on the border that divides the two countries. Azerbaijan believes that the solution to this conflict lies in the recovery of what it defines as occupied territories, while Armenia supports the right to self-determination of this region.