Armenia and Azerbaijan violate the humanitarian ceasefire

After two weeks of intense fighting, the international community was relieved on Saturday when a humanitarian ceasefire was announced in Nagorno-Karabakh. This decision, sponsored by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), was intended to allow the civilian population to leave, to be provided with basic resources and to be able to visit their families and the dead. In addition to the exchange of prisoners of war, detainees and the bodies of the dead between the two warring sides.

However, hours after the ceasefire, shots and cannon fire began to be heard again. The press releases reported the wounded, dead and displaced. This was the opposite of what the international community expected from the ceasefire.

According to emerging figures, the fighting over the past two weeks has killed at least 438 members of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Forces and 41 Azeri civilians, the respective authorities reported on Sunday.  The Karabakh Ministry of Defense has added another 25 military dead in recent hours, bringing to 438 the number of fatalities its forces have suffered in two weeks of fighting.

On the part of Azerbaijan, which has not given any official figures on casualties among its military for days, the escalation of fighting has left at least 41 civilians dead and 200 wounded, according to the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General's Office quoted by the Russian agency Sputnik. The attacks have also caused damage to 1,165 private homes, 57 residential buildings and 146 civilian facilities.

The war has continued as Azerbaijan and Armenia have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. "On the morning of October 12, the Armenian Armed Forces bombed the region of Agdam," a statement from the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan states. According to the Azerbaijani side, Armenian troops tried to regain positions south of Nagorno-Karabakh, but were repelled. 

This weekend's clashes have been concentrated in the south of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsaj. Shushan Stepanian, spokesman of the Armenian Ministry of Defense, denounced that the Azerbaijani forces attacked with artillery fire in the south of Nagorno-Karabakh. "The night in the conflict zone was tense. Now the enemy is punishing the southern sector with intense artillery fire," Stepanian wrote on Facebook.

Stepanakert, the Karabakh capital, which was the scene of several night-time bombings over the weekend, has also been attacked, although life seemed to return to normal during the day. On the other hand, Azerbaijan denounced today that Armenian artillery attacked tonight the second city of the country, Ganja, where nine people are said to have died, in the most serious attack against the civilian population since the beginning of the hostilities.

Among the local population there is a strong desire for the ceasefire that came into effect on Saturday to be strengthened. Some establishments and stores reopened with great insecurity. Despite the humanitarian ceasefire that came into effect at noon this Saturday, the military actions have not ceased. On September 26, a war that has already claimed hundreds of lives of civilians and soldiers resumed in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan maintains that the solution to the conflict with Armenia necessarily passes through the liberation of the occupied territories, a demand that has been supported by several resolutions of the UN Security Council. Armenia, however, supports the right to self-determination of Nagorny Karabakh and advocates the participation of representatives of the separatist territory in negotiations on the settlement of the conflict. 

It seemed that on Friday, after the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the peace talks were to be resumed under the leadership of the Minsk Group. 

All the countries of the international community have issued communiqués throughout the two weeks that the conflict has been active, calling for a cessation of hostilities. Even Turkey, which initially supported the Azeris with militias and military equipment, has this morning called for a humanitarian ceasefire.

When the cessation of hostilities was announced so that a prisoner exchange could take place and give the Karabakh population some breathing space, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the decision was "an important first step but will not replace a lasting solution". Turkey, Azerbaijan's main ally in this conflict, interprets the acceptance of the ceasefire by the Azerbaijani side as "a last chance for Armenia to withdraw from the the territories it occupies".

Everyone wondered how long the truce would last. Only a few hours were needed to answer that question and this fact has made the international community very uncomfortable. The Minsk Group, the European Commission and the United Nations have all expressed their disappointment at the breakdown of this humanitarian ceasefire.

The foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey Sergei Lavrov and Mevlut Cavusoglu had a telephone conversation on Sunday and stressed "the necessity to strictly observe all points of the joint statement of the foreign ministers of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia of October 10," the Russian Foreign Ministry informed.

For both countries, last Friday's talks cannot be left in a vacuum. Especially if they are sponsored under the Russian umbrella. Russia continues to reiterate its readiness to mediate the conflict in order to end the hostilities. For its part, a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry has indicated that Cavusoglu has asked Lavrov to influence Armenia to comply with the ceasefire.
 

Even neighboring Iran urged Armenia and Azerbaijan on Monday to "adhere to the ceasefire and resume talks within the framework of international law. The Islamic Republic has been affected by the conflict by the impact of some projectiles on its territory due to the proximity of the fighting to its border.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry also asked the parties to the conflict to respect the territorial integrity and evacuate the occupied cities, according to a statement. These steps are essential to prepare a dialogue aimed at peace and "a permanent and sustainable solution in the region," added Iran, which offered to facilitate the talks.

This territory is located within Azerbaijan and is a small enclave of Armenian population that wants to become independent and part of the neighboring country (Armenia). With 140,000 inhabitants of whom 90% speak Armenian, in 1991 they proclaimed themselves an independent state by creating the Republic of Artsaj.

To understand how this whole territorial conflict began, we must go back to 1918, when Iosif Stalin, with the creation of the USSR, occupied the Caucasus region and divided the territory into three socialist republics: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

As in many other cases in the history of colonization, the ethnic groups and religions that lived together in the area were not taken into account. This is how Nagorno-Karabakh remained within Azerbaijan despite being more akin to Armenia. For many years, this uncomfortable situation was maintained without wanting to take the counter to the Soviet leadership.

But when the Soviet empire began to weaken, the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh began to demonstrate and Armenia, in an attempt to expand its territory, entered into a war with Azerbaijan that would last eight years (1987-1994). This war took more than 30,000 lives and displaced about one million people.

Although the USSR tried to prevent this Armenian annexation, its priorities were beginning to focus on survival. This is how the Soviet regime gradually deflated without being able to exert any kind of influence. In 1991 the Nagorno-Karabakh region proclaimed itself independent by creating the Republic of Artsaj. This new state shares administration and banks with the Armenian country, which also gained Azeri ground during the war by surrounding the eastern part of the newly self-proclaimed country.

The war ended in it with the Azerbaijanis as the big losers since, suddenly, they found 20% of their country invaded by Armenia and an independent republic proclaimed without their consent. About 800,000 Azeris had to leave the occupied area after the war.  

This state has not been recognized by any UN country, but diplomatic efforts to recognize the region have made (and continue to make) great efforts to achieve their goals. The president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has proclaimed on several occasions that "their greatest enemies are the Armenians" and has given no sign of wanting to resolve this conflict of which they feel they are historical victims.

In the city of Madrid, in 2009, an attempt was made to revive the resolution of the conflict in which three lines were proposed to ease tensions: first, the inhabitants of Artsaj could decide whether to be from Armenia or Azerbaijan. The second point urged the Armenian Army to withdraw from the occupied region southeast of Nagorno-Karabakh. And finally, Azerbaijan would guarantee a humanitarian corridor for all those who want to leave Artsaj for Armenia.

These talks were broken off as neither country was willing to give up the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The tensions have been accumulating until now, which have resumed the military confrontation leaving dozens of wounded, according to sources from the Ministries of Dense on both sides.

During February 2020, the leaders of both countries were seen for the first time in public during the Munich Security Conference. Both Nikol Pashinian, the Armenian Prime Minister, and Ilham Aliyev were discussing at a conference the historical reasons that justified belonging to one or the other of the disputed territory. The talk did not reveal any kind of agreement, but the idea that they were discussing in public opened the door to the hope of a peaceful future.

Nothing could be further from the truth, seven months later both countries have taken up arms again and, right now, it does not seem that they intend to stop. Azerbaijan wants to regain its lost territory and, in the process, control the Republic of Artsaj over which it has no jurisdiction since its self-proclamation. 

On the other hand, Armenia feels the duty to continue defending the citizens living in Artsaj, an annexationist pretext to continue controlling the area. For the moment, Pashkin has banned men between 18 and 55 from leaving the country in case he has to send them to the front. This decision suggests that the conflict may last longer than it should.

Today, the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zohrab Mnatsakanián, meets with his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, to address the issue of the ceasefire and the loss of positions that Armenia is suffering during the offensive against the Azeri Army.

The international community is very interested in these meetings in order to stop the hostilities and resume the talks. Both countries seem to agree on how to "start talks" but, at the same time, do not want to stop the military conflict. This situation confuses and alarms neighbouring countries and the negotiating group, whose main objectives are to ensure the safety of the civilian population living in the affected areas.